You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 10 August 2016: -
On 09 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 144.15 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 610.15 Crs
Well, FIIs flow is slowing down and we are almost on resistance
levels. Market is on crucial wave based resistance and this may be the time to consolidation
with a down move. If I am right and market breaks 8600 then it may turn to be
medium term top. I used to say that most top used to come near to policy day
and it may be one such. So far, it is not so weak but weak enough to hold my
short.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive
note to fate note. Keep your eye on 8600 levels which looks too far. If it can
break 8600 then we can expect market to go lower and move lower. On higher side
8750+ levels may be tougher to cross. Well, what about the possibility of 9000
which I talked earlier? I am accepting that possibility is fading now. Remember,
I was bullish from 8000 levels onwards. It’s too big rally with ease.
After looking to this structure and then way market has refused to
break below 8000 even in panic we can say that market is preparing something
big. This big think can be as big as 9000-9100 levels of Nifty. I see such
great possibility hence bears must be cautious.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
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Strategy for Nifty August
future – I am maintaining short from Monday’s higher levels. We saw the dip
yesterday but recovered in last hours of trade. I still believe that 8760-8765
will act as resistance for today’s trade. Market may consolidate but it may not
go higher easily from current levels. Market deserves a short attempt but with caution.
If it can move above 8765 then I will come off from my short deals. Confident
sell will come below 8630 levels which is too far.
BANK NIFTY – I do not have
any take on it. It is on resistance and I do not think that it can show strength
unless it go above 19200. Bank Nifty is my concern and it remains my concern.
It has failed to deliver. This may be the reason that I am shy to hold my long.
If market goes weaker then we can expect a decisive down anytime sooner.
Technically, if it fails at 19200 levels then do not attempt from long from
higher levels. Before RBI policy 19200 may be crucial and critical.
