You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 18
June 2013: -
On 17 June
2013, FII sold INR 165.10 crs and DII bought INR 361.53 crs.
Why I never
give more important to cash FII figures? Look at a fact that FIIs were buying
aggressively when Nifty was near 6200 and selling when Nifty is at 5800 levels.
Well, it is still a bad signal for India’s money flow. It is signaling that
FIIs are may fed up from Indian market for short term money investment.
RBI has
again disappointed street but market forget it as ‘no event’ and advance
higher. It has saved the possible short covering. Derivative data suggest that
traders are still shorting this market. Now, USA market is very close to get
some decision on QE. Fresh fear is that there may be some tapering statement
over QE in upcoming fed meeting. One day they say ‘yes’ and next day the say ‘no’
on speculative mode. The way US indices are moving, I feel that it is better to
be cautious note.
Technical charts are still suggesting for continuation of rise. When Nifty
was falling from higher, 5850-5860 levels has acted as strong support before
failing. Now, that level of 5860 is acting as tough resistance. I will try to
maintain my bullish views only if we spend good time above 5860 levels. It is
just 12 points away but this is most crucial 12 points.
In the downside, we will get good trading support at 5800. It is likely
to be a choppy session.
Strategy
for Nifty June future – Right now SGX Nifty
down by 5 points and it is trading at 5835. It is looking for a pause before
crucial 5860-5880 levels. It will not be a good sign if we fail to cross
5860-5880 levels today. Failure will cause higher selling. Market dynamics are
showing that if fall comes then even recent low of 5680 might be under test.
Can we say that bounce has done? It cannot be concluded so easily but I am
also turning cautious before fed meeting.
S&P
500
– I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that
S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.
I said for
the biasing towards 1640-1650 and it hit a high at 1647 before giving up gains.
I am equally saying that failing above 1650 is also not a good sign. Stocks are
on flip flow mode before fed meeting. It is not a bull’s friendly moves as of
now. Expect a choppy session. Remember last three Tuesdays were not good for
market but before that we got rise for 21 consecutive Tuesdays.
What’s
coming this Tuesday? S&P 500 is
still above 20 EMA.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
