NSE NIFTY - VIEWS BASED ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND ELLIOTT WAVE STUDY-YEAREND ANALYSIS

On 5th November 2010, we have seen a intraday high point of 6338.50 on NIFTY. We are now at 23rd sub wave as defined in Elliott wave chart given below. Crucial point is at the latest 3rd wave which has end point at 4720. It was also a most talked level in past 3-4 months back but unfortunately broken on 23rd November 2011. Result came as a new 52 week low at 4531 which was tested on 20 December 2011. It’s very clear that we are rapidly breaking the supports in the second half of years 2011.

I can say that from 2 nd May 2011, it was very clear that Nifty could have some painful second half and it was the time when it has broken the major daily trend line to refuse the recovery.

Whats the expectation from current levels of 4646?

From 20th December 2011, recovery sustain only for six trading sessions. If we make a trend line using the low of each six days then we can conclude that on very 7th days it has broken those rising pattern. Yesterday we got some brutal sell off for the confirmation of the decisive break. I am concluding that if nifty breaks and sustain below 4639-4630 levels then we will go to retest the recent low of 4531 very soon. This we can name as the extension of 5th wave on downside.

Technical Analysis, charting or Elliott wave, nothing is sufficient alone to get a trading direction.

RSI - I choose RSI with two suitable moving averages to smooth the chart. Indicator is suggesting that we must be near to running short of steam to run with recovery. I am expecting some decisive downside if RSI comes down from those triangle pattern.

Trend line - Look at the right side of the chart. It is indicating that in coming few days we will see the meeting of two support lines and one resistance line. This can happen somewhere near to 4464 on nifty.

There are chances for good downside in the month of January 2012. Technical are indicating for a poor show to begin 2012.

Do you know ?

For year 2011

DOW JONES - gained nearly 6%

FTSE - gained nealy 2%

NIFTY - lost more than 20%

Which economy is slowing down?

Thanks for reading,

Praveen Kumar

(Technical Analyst, www.viecapital.com)

Have you got the cross of 5170?

Now a day everyone is talking about the importance of 5170. I am sure that I have given you this figure well in advance to stay ahead that others. Now is it so import to discuss about 5170? I can update you few more things later.

This week is going to be full of event and the worse part is that we have only three trading sessions to trade. I cannot count muhurat trading as trading day. Trading might not be easy for this week. We have seen constant wild opening in stock market in past few days and I am sure those has troubled you a lot. Even I have reduced my number of trades. I always said, "wait for the opportunity to trade and never try to pull opportunity".

One gentleman asked me what should he do after 80-90 points of gap up or gap down? Well, its very simple. Make a holiday or just watch the market. Is it not better than loosing money? Do not forget that stock market wants you to loose money at every step and its your duty to save your money and make money at right opportunity.

In such wild day's, I just follow my basis. I kept on doing right things based on technical charts. Sooner or later result will come in favour of me only. You do not believe me? Look at LT. Stock crashed up to 1325 even when Nifty was at 5100. It will see another round of sharp selling this week. I traded few short on this stock.

I must admit that current year is one of the toughest for traders. If you are unable to make money to good extent then do not get dishearted. This market is in toughest phase. Trend will be smooth sooner. Wait for some good opportunity ahead which will comes later this week.