30 October 2016 : Praveen Kumar : Wishing you a very happy and prosperous Diwali 2016 !!!

Good Evening,
Wishing you and your family a very happy Diwali.
Well, its a traditional day to write my forecast for next 12 months. Last year I gave a price target of 6500-6000 in post Diwali day and we got a lot at 6800. You can read again in this link.

 http://viecapital.blogspot.in/2015_11_11_archive.html?m=0

I need to quote for this year. Please refer to this chart and i keep it as simple as it can be.

Regards,
Praveen Kumar 

28 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am not bullish on this Diwali. 8500 is a key and it has to break to give 8200-8000 or lower levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 October 2016: -

On 27 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 469.93 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 856.50 Crs

Well, I was convinced with a fall on expiry day and we saw 8550 levels but then something has happened which used to happen on expiry day. A bounce. Fine, it has one great indication for me. The bounce came due to short covering it means that market has short position. Covering is suggesting that market may add short position again.

I am again quoting that 8500 is a key support which is likely to break sooner or later. I am not accepting that 8600 may have any meaning now. I have a firm believe that if it breaks 8500 now then market will open scope for levels of 8200-800 which is based on H&S pattern developing. Well, we require more confirmation. One thing is clear; I am not going to take any long this on this DIWALI day.

For today’s trading session I am suggesting that if you want to peaceful DIWALI then just do not be bull. Do not buy anything and believe my long term view. Today is Friday and market may complete its move what it has not done yesterday. I mean to say for the test of 8500 levels.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future –November future contract has seen close at 8660. Opps!!! I was not expecting this. Worse part is that we are going to see gap down today. I was right but market force me to miss this move. I am digesting as you cannot expect outcome as you planned. I need to make a new strategy but that will also on short side. If opening goes near 8600 then wait for a bounce to short. 8680 may be very tougher to cross.

BANK NIFTY – 19500 keeps the key with itself. I suggest ignoring what has happened on expiry day. Market will start giving up very sooner at support levels. Technical charts are giving a sell to a strong sell if we start seeing below 19500 levels. My anticipated target is at 18700 which are based on Elliott wave count. I am extremely as I cannot publish my wave count as those starts unnecessary debate. Very recent, traders try to convince me to be bullish at 8800+ levels. 

27 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will it hit 8500???????? Do not go long at any stage now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 October 2016: -

On 26 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1450.65 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 989.46 Crs

Today is derivative expiry and this is used to be most avoidable day for me. Well, still I have added some short yesterday on anticipation of a down expiry. Expiry is bound to be very uncertain day but I am seeing the possibility of 8500. It is hard to say if it comes today or tomorrow or next week.

I was firm on my view that a possible top should come at 8740 and we saw a higher at 8740 and then a fall. Now, if I am right then I can see a possibility of hitting 8500 levels. With that, I see a very high chance of breaking 8500 this time. I definitely like to see the closing for expiry and the kind of rollover.

For today’s trading session I am suggesting that if you want to peaceful DIWALI then just do not be bull. Do not buy anything and believe my long term view. Think, if it breaks 8600 today then we may have a chance of 8500. I will not be buyer at any cost.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future –November future contract has seen close below 8680 and this is definitely alarming. Firstly I like to see if this can break 8630 then I will focus on 8600. If it breaks below 8600 then I am sure that expiry will go on very lower note. May be, at the lowest point of the day. Let us see where it can end. It will be direction for next month.

BANK NIFTY – It has broken 19500 and now looking to retrace the fall towards 19200 levels. How will it fall? Will it be smooth? Well, my answer is yes. If this works then fall can be deeper below 19200 also. If it turns a black expiry then bank nifty will see more weakness and I will not be surprise to see 19000 levels. BANK NIFTY may see follow up selling. 

26 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Truncation on NIFTY @ 8740 will cause a possible test or break of 8500 in coming weeks.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 October 2016: -

On 25 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 606.34 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 389.11 Crs

My shorts are not working from the time I started shorting assuming 8700 and 8740 as the wave based resistance. Only reason that I could see is that market refuse to give us 8700 by partial extent. I still retain my view that sooner or later it has to slip. May be in that process I may not able to add short a top as I have already missed those top for shorting for trade.  

Nifty has just closed little shy from 8700 and market is like to see a gap down today. No matter for what reasons. I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open around 8660 and this may lead us for a possible sell generation. Technical charts are strongly suggesting that in that way market is moving it is like to see a big break on down side. It has saved at 8500 last time but this time we will see sell off below 8500. First hint must come by today only.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future –November future contract will face resistance at 8750 levels. It is likely to see traded opening below 8700 market and that force me to believe that market is generating a sell signal which is missing from past one week. If this happens today will be a down day and tomorrow will be another bigger down day. Remember that we are on the verge of derivative expiry. I do not used to be very active in these days due to uncertainty.

BANK NIFTY – This index has surpassed 19800 also. This is making market bullish and giving a hope. Hope can see a shadow near to expiry. A possible truncation can come at 19900. It is interesting to see. Should one trade long? Well, this may not go the way it looks. It contain high amount of risk. As of now, if there is a trade then it is soft long which I will definitely avoid. In case of gap down, this will turn bearish to extremely bearish. 

25 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still quote for 8740 as a crucial resistance based on my Elliott wave count.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 October 2016: -

On 24 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 325.13 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 333.26 Crs

This is tug-0f-war kind of situation at 8700 of Nifty. Technical charts are showing that this is a crucial zone but I do not have concrete sell signal in this zone. This is just my anticipation that 8700-8740 is a zone of resistance which I am quoting from past few days. A break in needed. Well, we are close to expiry and I do not prefer to be very active.

I like to see how market likes to react today. It is still my anticipation that we may see a final sell signal to act. If this comes then only I will be active on index else this may remain untradeable in my list.

I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note as indicated by SGX nifty. I am still not very firm for a reversal technical signal but I can strongly quote that Elliott wave charts are indicating that a top is coming sooner. I am just waiting for confirmation.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty November future – From today onwards I will be active on November future contract. This will face resistance at 8900 levels. Well, levels like 8920 may also be visible but broadly this on resistance market. Put writing is suggesting that market is not like to see a fall but this can never be a guarantee. 101% be caution at higher levels if you are a bull.

BANK NIFTY – This index has surpassed 19800 also. This is making market bullish and giving a hope. Hope can see a shadow near to expiry. A possible truncation can come at 19900. It is interesting to see. Should one trade long? Well, this may not go the way it looks. It contain high amount of risk. As of now, if there is a trade then it is soft long which I will definitely avoid. 

21 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8700-8740 is zone of stiff resistance. We may see a possible sell signal generating in this zone.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 October 2016: -

On 20 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 7.30 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 583.22 Crs

This is halt on 8700 levels and we have a meaningful resistance at 8740 levels. Technical charts are just suggesting that we are on resistance levels. I cannot see any big sign of weakness or even a sign of weakness to trade short. In short I do not think that market is on tradable mode. Today is Friday and market may respond on its call on 8700. Will it make or will it break?

Equally, market may betray bulls at higher levels sooner. We are heading towards resistance zone. I am not very sure that we should take a risk of trading long although shorting also may not work. In alter sense we can say that we can get a buy if Nifty can stand above 8700. It is true but we can see multiple resistances above 8700. One such is 8720-8740.

I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note as indicated by SGX nifty. Technical charts are saying to avoid trade if one has no great guts to flow against market. I am not very keen in trading long at 8700. If I can see the sign of weakness or profit taking the only I will opt trading short. Let us see if we can trade or not. I am not touching index future from past two trading days.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am not very sure if traders can get safer trade by going long at 8700 levels. If Nifty opens near or above 8700 this will be a avoid zone for me. Technical support is at 8640-8630 levels. On higher side it should have resistance at 8700 where it is about to open. Logically, it can hit 8740 if it can sustain above 8700. Will it break at top? A billion dollar question.

BANK NIFTY – Well, it was just BANKNIFTY which has saved NIFTY. I am concluding that BANK NIFTY has resistance at 19700 which has worked as support when it was at higher levels. If this fails at 19700 then we can able to see a fall up to 19500 first. Big question is that can we able to see a possible sell signal at 19700? If we can get then only we can able to see possible fall. So far, no great sign to trade.   

20 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty will face multiple resistances above 8700 levels. Long trades will be unsafe at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 October 2016: -

On 19 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 282.77 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 724.64 Crs

From past two trading sessions market is giving resistance at 8700 levels. Whenever it tried to break 8700, bears turn heavy. 8700 is my anticipated resistance so far although it has not given any great sign of weakness at current levels. In fact, as long as Nifty is staying above 8700 we cannot think market can able to give meaningful sell signal.  

Equally, market may betray bulls at higher levels sooner. We are heading towards resistance zone. I am not very sure that we should take a risk of trading long although shorting also may not work. In alter sense we can say that we can get a buy if Nifty can stand above 8700. It is true but we can see multiple resistances above 8700. One such is 8720-8740.

I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive note as indicated by SGX nifty. Technical charts are saying to avoid trade if one has no great guts to flow against market. I am not very keen in trading long at 8700.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am not very sure if traders can get safer trade by going long at 8700 levels. If Nifty opens near or above 8700 this will be a avoid zone for me. Technical support is at 8640-8630 levels. On higher side it should have resistance at 8700 where it is about to open. Logically, it can hit 8740 if it can sustain above 8700.

BANK NIFTY – Sell signal, if it has to comes then it will come on BANK NIFTY before Nifty. BANK NIFTY has resistance at 19500-19600. A sell may emerge from this range. I am not short of now on index future but I may have planned to add short on weakness. I am buying some put options near to expiry. I am not ruling out the possibility of flash sell off before weekend. 

19 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bounce to extend which has started from 8500 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 October 2016: -

On 18 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 345.04 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 173.36 Crs

I have predicted for bounce from levels near to 8500. We exactly got that. Well, magnitude of this rise was beyond my expectation. I was not expecting much beyond 8620 but it has moved well 60 points advance and that’s too after a firm gap up. I traded long in last hour only to manage some gain on index.

As recovery on Nifty is already coming near 8700 so I cannot suggest jumping on buy. Wait for pullback to add long. Just do not opt shorting as long as it is above 8620. This recovery may have more steam and it can hit 8700 or may be even at 8750 levels.

I have already said that next leg of fall will be decided by the magnitude of recovery. It is a big question for the possible top. Let us see if it comes at 8700 or 8750 or at 8800.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. I am not in the mood to trade short after seeing yesterday’s momentum. Technically, we can buy in a pullback. Just a view, if I can get this at 8650-8630 levels then I can get long.  

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Of this 100 points intraday rise, I was able to capitalize long from 8660 to 8680 only. I missed most part on anticipation. Technically, we can see a pullback today which should be intraday in nature. My prefer range for one long attempt will be at 8650-8630. This is just my anticipation of winning at resistance. As it is not a complete technical view so I need more confirmation.

BANK NIFTY – I definitely had a plan to add short at 19400 but I dropped that idea after seeing the great momentum. This is the use of real time analysis. I believe that market can head forward more and more in coming few days. I am carried away with momentum only and hence I am seeing possibility of further rise after an intraday correction. Technically, we are on resistance but momentum can overcome resistance. Hence, buy in dip. I cannot spot out a concrete level. 

18 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8500 worked as dot so far. Will it get respect today also?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 October 2016: -

On 17 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 456.64 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 235.57 Crs

I can still repeat that Nifty may not give up 8500 so easily. Hence, I exited my short position just near bottom which I had added intraday. Well, I can say it’s is just 50-50 deal for rise and fall. We cannot bet on recovery so far. It may come or it may not come.

If Nifty denies recovery then we can expect levels of 8420-8400 by this week itself. Just think, if Nifty not dragging levels wise? I have quoted for a possible fall when it was running near 8900. Yes, it is drifting lower. We can get time wise recovery which is part of market dynamics.

I retain with my target of 8200 on Nifty in coming few week. Right now, it is the time to hope for a rebound from levels of 8500 on Nifty. This rebound cannot be big enough to say for a strong buy. This may just sustain for 1-2 days.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive note. Strong technical support will lie on 8500. As long as it holds 8500 and sustain do not prefer shorting from lower levels. It is equally true that if it breaks 8500 then we can expect quick 60-80 points of fall but that day may not be today.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I have no forward position as of now. I will prefer to wait-watch and then trade. Technical support will be at 8500 just like yesterday. On higher side we can expect 8620 as a key resistance. Will recovery give a buy opportunity? I like to deal but I will not trade if range remains small.  

BANK NIFTY – Well, it came near to 18800 or 19000, to me things remains same. I do not prefer shorting from lower levels without a bounce. My levels for shorting will depends on magnitude of recovery if comes. I may not prefer to trade short today. It is my anticipation that recovery should come to give us levels of 19400.  

17 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Will it break 8500? This may be more speculative and less technical deal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 October 2016: -

On 14 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 946.42 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 556.90 Crs

I was expecting dead sessions after gap down opening and we exactly got the same. I can issue a warning that traders should restrict their activity for today too as market may be in the range again. I do not think that Nifty can breaks 8500 so easily so sooner. My expectation is that it will break but I cannot say how many trading sessions will it take. We may see the break today itself or we may have to wait till the last of this week. No analysis can give us time.

Level wise my analysis remains same but momentum may go in favour of bears. Longer it takes lesser will be possibility for bounce.

I have already forecasted for a fall once market goes in full trade mode and that will start from today. ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner. I am keeping this part for some time for my analysis.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open with flat note. Then, market may react to a dull session. Do not act immediately. I am expecting down but more than that I am expecting choppy down. There is a lack of confirmation for trading. One has to trade on speculative signal which I prefer to avoid. It may be 50-50 deal.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am optimistic for recovery but this is not a call yet. This this fails then we can see further cut of 70-80 points from current levels. On higher side 8620-8650 is a zone of resistance. Let us see if recovery comes or fall continues.

BANK NIFTY – My study remains same. Bank Nifty came very near to 18800 and this may be too much for a day. I am not advising fresh short form lower levels without any bounce. Day may be unfavourable for recovery in second half.  We do not have any clear sign of taking a call on recovery but this is my expectation. Let us see if this works. 

14 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8500 support is a key for now. Do not short from lower levels unless it breaks 8500.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 October 2016: -

On 13 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 911.53 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 679.49 Crs

Well, my target has done as of now. Worse part is that it came with a big gap down. This is most unfavourable kind of trading session. What is next for technical now? I must say that 8500 is a meaningful short term support for Nifty. Now, from near to 8500, traders should not add short from lower levels. I am still expecting extension of fall but with some bounce.

A chance for bounce is bright today but this is not a technical call. It is most common psychology of market that good days used to come immediate after bad day.

I have already forecasted for a fall once market goes in full trade mode and that will start from today. ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner. I am keeping this part for some time for my analysis.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open with flat note or may be little positive. Then, market may like to retrace up to 8620-8650 levels. Chances are there for higher levels but that’s backed by only due to yesterday’s gap down. It should be an attempt for gap fill but that’s not possible to fill. Hence, my expectation is a recovery in first half and then fall in second half. Technical signal for trade has yet to be generated.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am optimistic for recovery but this is not a call yet. This this fails then we can see further cut of 70-80 points from current levels. On higher side 8620-8650 is a zone of resistance. Let us see if recovery comes or fall continues.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty came very near to 18800 and this may be too much for a day. I am not advising fresh short form lower levels without any bounce. Day may be unfavourable for recovery in second half.  We do not have any clear sign of taking a call on recovery but this is my expectation. Let us see if this works.

13 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Welcome back. Nifty is likely to hit 8600 as expected from past analysis.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 October 2016: -

On 10 October 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 547.26 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 468.96 Crs

I do not prefer to take trading position on long holidays but I strongly warned traders from long positions. I stick on my possible expectation of 8600 on Nifty. I need to issue a strong warning that Nifty may not be comfortable in coming few weeks. I am not seeing any possibility for big rise sooner. Market may not rise till Diwali. This is happening almost every here. So do not take extra exposure.  

I have already forecasted for a fall once market goes in full trade mode and that will start from today. ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open with big gap down. I will prefer to trade short on rise. Big question is that will it recover to give me opportunity to trade short? I doubt but I will wait for some time for some price recovery.  Technical support will come at 8600 only which is 100 points down from last closing.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I have no trade on index anywhere. I am expecting Nifty to open down below 8700. If this happens then I will prefer to wait for some bounce to add short. I am not levels specific right now as it is opening after two days of holidays and it has come parallel to global indices. Do not trade long in any case.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty is likely to come below 19200 by opening minutes only and this is not a favourable opening for me in to the trade. I want bounce to add short but call is simple that one should trade on short side only. On higher side 19500 will be a stiff resistance for some time.  I will not surprise to see 18800-18600 levels in coming few weeks. 

10 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: HAPPY DASERA – Make holiday- Do not trade

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 October 2016: -

On 07 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 56.25 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 726.80 Crs

Nifty hang near 8700 and this makes market dull. I must say that as market is on long holiday, it may not move much. We have Holiday today and tomorrow also hence participation will be less in the market. I strongly suggest that one should not trade in this kind of market.

Elliott wave signal will be as it is. It will react only after when market reopens on Thursday. My prime call is that market will fall once market comes in full trade mode.

ELLIOTT wave based target may be in the range of 8200-8000 levels. This will be applicable sooner.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. After that market will remains in range. My expected range for market will be 30-40 points only. Technical support is at 8650-8670 and on higher side it will face resistance at 8740. Well, it is just a technical view although market will not move even that much.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am off to my short trades and now I am sitting silent. Technical charts may support for trade but I am not trading due to holidays hitting market. I am expecting market to remain in a range. Support to come 8700 and resistance will come at 8770. I may not opt to trade.

BANK NIFTY – As said for Nifty, Bank Nifty will also remain in a range. Technical support will be at 19200. Whatever bounce is coming due to choppy session will not sustain for long time. Elliott wave based target may go very lower from present levels. It is advisable to be very cautious if one is trading long. Time based odd bounce may be odd buy. 

07 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Its Elliott wave based fall from levels of 8800. It can extend brutally on FRIDAY.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 October 2016: -

On 06 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 353.80 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 124.45 Crs

Nifty hit a low around 8680 and closed on weak note. Technical charts are suggesting for a possible dip around 8600. It has nothing to do with tussle between India and Pakistan. It is just a normal market dynamics. Technical resistance will remains at 8800 levels. I am repeating again that traders should avoid any long trade.

I must suggest to all readers that please do not demand for my Elliott wave labelling as those starts many unnecessary debates which can affect your trades and mine too. I am publishing my conclusions which are primarily based on Elliott wave theory. I am doing manual marking keeping all rules in my mind. It is my personal view that no software is capable enough to give correct marking.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. It will get support at 8680 after opening. I may expect 8600 levels if this can breaks and sustain below 8680. We may see some comfortable fall if this can breaks 8680. This is going to be interesting trade before weekend.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – I am maintaining short from 8790 levels even though sell signal was not very firm. I like to see the development today to decide my desired target. Technical charts are suggesting for 8700. If this can breaks 8700 then we can expect a level 8640-8620 sooner. If not this week then we can expect those levels next week.  

BANK NIFTY – I have already said earlier that this sectoral index can suffer more than blue chip index. Technical charts are suggesting for a possible test of 19200 levels. Now, one should prefer to trade on short side if this can even sustain in negative. Bulls may make few attempt but they cannot win the last words. Do not trade long at any cost.   

06 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: My target of 8800 has done that a possible is about to hit. Do not trade long.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 06 October 2016: -

On 05 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 243.000 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 349.86 Crs

In my online update yesterday we quoted for a possible top hint. I was looking for 8800 on nifty and I think that we got that. In that way we got a simple resistance above 8800. It was well away from higher levels and that’s suggesting me for a possible dip today. I must say that this sell signal is not so firm yet hence I am not very active. I am lightly active on short side.

I have already said for an Elliott wave based sell to emerge from 8800 to 8840 levels. I think that I may say is as a sell sooner.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. It will get support at 8720 after opening. If this can sustain below 8720 then we may see a generation for possible sell signal getting intensifying. In short, higher side resistance will be at 8780-8800 and support at 8720-8700. If this can break these 100 points of range then we can see a possible direction. Hope for a direction today or tomorrow.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8780 levels. On higher side resistance will emerge at 8820-8840 levels. SGX Nifty is saying for 8800 while I am compiling this article which I think will slip decisively before opening hours. I have already having short from 8790 to 8800 levels let us see if this can break the support of 8740 levels. This is what I am expecting.

BANK NIFTY – I am still repeating that if a sell signal will come then it will come less warning just like yesterday. It is forming a pattern of giving up. If this can sustain below 19500 then we may see a possibility towards 19200 levels. Technical sell may be active below 19500. I have already tried for shorting yesterday and I may take attempt today also. This index may fall more than Nifty, if fall comes. 

04 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All eyes on wording of RBI policy today. Expect 8800 on Nifty.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 October 2016: -

On 03 October 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 34.22 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 198.02 Crs

This was expected rise and it goes in a good way. Technical set up was firm and able to neglect any bad news. Today we have RBI’s monetary policy review. I am not expecting much from this policy. Chances of rate cut may be low. Market will respond only on positive wording towards rate cut. If things go the way I am expecting then market may prefer to hit 8800 levels.

I must say that Elliott wave sell signal is yet to come. This signal may come with lesser warning hence I suggest that trading should be done with extreme cation now. My anticipated level for the possible sell signal is at 8800-8840. I like to see development before converting this in to trade.  

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. My expectation is that market will prefer to be in rally mode in the wording to RBI policy. Hence, I am expecting 8800 on higher side today. New governor Mr. Urjit Patel has to say positive and it need to be positive. I am sure that he will try to fulfil for the purpose of his handling the tougher post. Technical support will be at 8700-8680.

One more thing, nothing is going to happen at Indo-Pak boarder in the year 2016. Do not expect anything happening sooner so this was last news and come back to work.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8780 levels. Let us see if this can cross above 8820 levels. If I am right the Nifty October future may get a rise towards or above 8850 levels. I have already added long yesterday. Down side support stands at 8750. I may not be very active in second half on long side.

BANK NIFTY – This is fantastic run on bank nifty. It has closed above 19500 and it may possible to hit the levels of 19800 to 19900. Well, anything above 20000 may not be easy to cross. Technical charts will give better signal from higher levels for sell signal. I am not very keen to trade on short side immediately but I am sure that sell will come lesser warning. 

03 October 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One more rise is expected before hitting a sell driven by Elliott wave signal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 October 2016: -

On 30 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1028.31 Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1560.29 Crs

I was firm on my technical view point irrespective of all odd news flow. I am repeating again that trade according to market dynamics only. Do not get affected by INDO-PAK tension. Nothing will happen in near future. Market may fall or may rise but all will happen as per normal market movement. India’s strong step on boarder will affect economy positively only. On other hand Pakistan will prefer to stay away from any war like situation.

Technical developments on charts are suggesting that 8540-8500 may act as strong support. We saw a good trade in the last trading session. I am expecting a bounce from lower levels again. Well, one must note that this long trade opportunity wills just a reaction of quick fall which came on expiry day. Elliott wave charts are suggesting for a sell signal to emerge sooner from higher levels.

For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on flat note. I am not going to buy immediately after opening. We may see some nervousness. I may prefer to buy in dip but only if this can be nervous selling. I cannot spot any concrete levels.

One more thing, nothing is going to happen at Indo-Pak boarder in the year 2016. Do not expect anything happening sooner so this was last news and come back to work.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely to open around 8660 levels. This can be an expected opening and firm levels for strength. Some weak bulls may try to give up their position. I am expecting one more rise which can give a test of 8700-8750 before any fall. Sooner or later Elliott wave sell signal will hit. It may not be easy to time the market this time.   

BANK NIFTY – Once again, I can say that as long as it is above 19200 we can expect further strength. Is it the time to say for strength? I must say that buying can be executed from levels of 19000 or nearby but that are too far away from current levels. Technical charts are suggesting that one more bounce may hit before any fall according to market dynamics.