15 December 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday HEXAWARE, AUROPHARMA and RCF

HEXAWARE (210.10)

Buy above 212.50/SL 211/ Target 215-218|| Sell below 208/ SL 210/ Target 205

AUROPHARMA (1156.70)

Buy above 1163/SL 1155/Target 1172-1190||Sell below 1145/ SL 1153/ Target 1130

RCF (66.95)

Buy above 68/ SL 67.30/ Target 70||Sell below 66/ SL 66.60/ Target – 65-64

15 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A gap down of 50 points coming on Nifty. Next logical support – 8175 > 8135 and finally at 8070 levels. I cannot deny the possibility of some recovery from lower levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 December 2014: -

On 12 December 2014, FII Sold INR 864.96 crs and DII Bought INR 323.41 crs

It has lost the support at 8280 levels and now looking for a drag towards another support. This may go as low as 8175 or 8135. World market fears of another slowdown after the end of stimulus in USA. Fall in crude oil price may be due to weak demand as nothing else can justify such sharp dip in such a small time interval. I strongly believe that $55/bbl should offer strong support on crude oil. This is just my first assessment in this dip. I never say a buy from $120/bbl itself. If this does not work then I will simply expect a slowdown in global economy. Remember, this may be a great change in fundamental so traders and investors should be careful on charts too. Bounce may not sustain. Based on Elliott wave, wave ‘c’ has to come after recovery wave ‘b’ which has yet to come. Wave ‘c’ will be even more brutal.

For today’s trading session, we may see opening on lower note. If it opens near 8175 and sustain then I will expect a recovery. It has already corrected for almost 400 points from its all-time high. One should wait and watch after gap down opening. It may misguide. I may opt to trade stock specific way. I have nothing on forward side so I am free to pick a direction.

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Strategy for Nifty December future – Below 8315, it was looking weak and it goes in same way. SGX Nifty is giving a hint for opening at 8220 which may be immediate support. It will not easy to trade after gap down. Especially, if it comes after 400 points of sharp dip. If it breaks the support 8220 then it can see further fall of 50 points.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have already talked about 2000 on S&P and it came very close to 2000 levels. Immediate support for recovery can be 2000 levels itself. Sooner or later, it will again go lower after a recovery. Now, every recovery will face resistance at 2020 and at 2035. A wave ‘c’ can be more brutal. Take a note that whole global indices have given almost same kind of moves in past week. 

NIFTY weekly analysis for 15 December’14 to 19 December’14

Elliott wave theory: It was giving all hints for a short term top just above 8620 levels. I was expecting a confirmation point of correction below 8500 levels. We got that desired correction. It has not done yet. It’s just corrective wave ‘a’. We will see a recovery wave ‘b’ and then a newer wave ‘c’ on downside. So far, if the magnitude of wave ‘a’ is more than 400 points then magnitude of wave ‘c’ will be also be more than 400 points. Key support for Nifty is at 8175 and then at 8135. Sooner or later, after a bounce, this will become 10% correction.

Market cycle: December is usually a good month for equity but now it has broken the trend and crude has changed the outlook of whole world. There is a strong fear of another global slowdown. Market wants a new valuation of stocks and commodity price after stimulus. It’s a bad news because I strongly believe that this market is highly overvalued. My sense is that crude oil can get a support at $55/bbl or nearby. If not then it can spread catastrophic effect on whole world.

Technical indicators: RSI has given warning for few weeks and we saw an impact last week. It shows that it was just a beginning. This prime indicator is still weak.   

Charting pattern: Previous reversal point was 8180, which has caused for correction towards 7723. So, same point of 8180 may offer some technical support. If not, then look for Elliott wave support point of 8135 and 8070.