Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Axis Bank:A short term study- Hinting for fall



First look at three short terms top (indicated in the chart). These are 1308.45 then 1283.70 and then 1226.50.
Look at short terms bottom (indicated in the chart). These are 1105 then 1105.75 then 1095.20 and very recently 1076.20.

(I have not written those too many figures to keep the chart clean. So one must note these given figures in mind)

Above is clearly indicating about the formation of constant lower tops and lower bottom formation. First three short term bottoms were more o less flat but the third one is surely concerning. Why it is concerning?

Focus on fall from 1226.50 to 1076.20 = 150.30
Most general recovery should have been retraced by 38.20% from 1076.20. Those recovery figures are 1133.65. This stock hit a high at 1135.85 in impulse but practically remains below 1130.
If any recovery turns shy just near to 38.20 retrenchment then most of the time stocks is bound to retest their recent previous lows. (This is the reason that past fewer bottom remains near to the levels of 1100).

RSI – It has pushed down to significant levels at each lower point. It is an indication that with every newer low RSI is turning weak. This in turn can be concluded as lead sign of some remarkable fall. Is it really coming? It is hard to conclude immediately as I always prefer to take step wise approach.

My call as of now is – firstly stay away form this stock for any kind of buying. Secondly, it can be in turn a short with working stop loss 1136. (Take note - validity of this pattern and study is as long as it stay below 1133.65. Such patterns are there is some more banking stocks). 

Regards
Praveen Kumar 

02 MAY - NIFTY - Expecting rise up to 5271 or up to 5299. Which one will be under test?


NIFTY:

I have already said that I do not prefer to trade short. Current rebound can take a move up to 5271 and then up to 5299 levels.

How these figures came-
  • 5248 – 50% (of fall from 5342 to 5155) from 5155
  • 5271 – 61.80% (of fall from 5342 to 5155) from 5155
  • 5299 – 76.40% (of fall from 5342 to 5155) from 5155

I have already quoted those in my intraday update on 30 April 2012. As we have already close on 5248 levels so even if market sustain even in positive zone then it we may see a move towards 5271.

So it is very clear that there is no possibility of any attempt to short in initial hours. As long as Nifty holds 5226 levels, do not short from lower levels.

It is advisable to see reaction at higher levels near resistance of 5271 and 5299 to decide about next move.

As of now, I may prefer to trade on long side in initial hours. I am still saying that rising trend will have very limited trading opportunity. If fall comes then only we can enjoy trading. Let us see what is about to come. Just keep those figures in mind.

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
Mobile number – 09893369889