You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
23 November 2016: -
On 22 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 692.85 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1075.20 Crs
If one compares Indian indices with global leaders like US then one
can feel the pain. To me, it seems like Indian market is getting support of
global sentiments. Please note that US indices are on all-time high. Equally,
it was heavily oversold. We are on derivative expiry week and we have
derivative expiry next week. We should get bounce but I have waited long for
this technical recovery but failed to capitalize it. Finally, I gave up long
attempts on tiring mode. It seems that majority of the recovery may come when I
have no position to bet on recovery. I am still unbiased.
My views remains same, a recovery deserve at this point of time but
this will be a bear market recovery. This force me to believe that market will
not extend much and will not sustain longer. The minimum of my expectation is
8100 which I think that should be catchable. I have a view that the way November
is going we may get uncertain December too. Presenting views on market is one
thing and converting view in to trades can be even tougher.
For today’s trading I am expecting a positive start as indicated by
SGX Nifty. Do not misinterpret. It is a mixed impact of oversold zone and all-time
high in US market. A simple expectation is 8100 and a fall to resume sooner.
Well, take a note – we may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – I am expecting a bounce but this can be a bear market bounce. I started
adding puts of December month in order to capitalise fall. If I have to capitalise
rise then I will do it used index future only. I am sensing for many more gaps
coming in the days to come. Technical resistance for Nifty December future is at
8100 levels. Near to derivative expiry, I do not prefer to trade.
BANK NIFTY – Well, a bounce
is deserve but this bounce may not be impressive to trade for recovery hence I am
changing my strategy. Previously, I was trying to capitalise recovery but I think
that it is better to be short side which can be just a major trend. Moves against
main trade should be ignored. Technical support is only at 18000 levels which
will break sooner or later.
