15 September 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – ARVIND, RCOM and UNITECH

ARVIND (335.75)

Buy above 338/SL 331/ Target – 350-360|| Sell below 329/ SL 333/ Target 317-309

RCOM (109.45)

Buy above 111/SL110/Target 113-114||Sell below 109/ SL 110/ Target 106-105/Free fall!!!

UNITECH (22.90) -

Buy above XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX ||Sell below 22.50/SL 24/Target 20-18-15

15 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Monday’s opening will be lower by 50 points backed by poor IIP data and poor global cues. Will it break below 8050 now? If yes, then expect 8000 on NIFTY !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 September 2014: -

On 12 September 2014, FII Bought INR 182.80 crs and DII Sold INR 208.44 crs

IIP and CPI data which came on Monday has not favoured bulls at all. So, suddenly all hope of quick recovery goes away. I have already said that recent better IIP data was just a base effect. Adding more pain, global indices are weak now. All such events are hinting me to see a possible opening near 8050 levels on NIFTY.

Here is a most important question – Will it break 8050 levels on 15 minutes chart?

If this happens then we will not see any fresh efforts by bulls due to wide gap of moving average support. I expect market to enter in the range of 8000 levels if it breaks 8050. It will be complex week if it saves 8050 again. I cannot deny any possibility.

For today’s trading session, opening may come in the range of 8060 as indicated by SGX Nifty. So far, I am watching for just one event – a day where market closes at lowest point of the day but that day has not came yet. As long as this even does not occur or we do not close below 8050, it cannot be named as corrective move. It is just a time correction.

 If it breaks 8050 then only we can expect something good for correction if not then it can again see pull back from low. It has not yet closing at lowest point of the day.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty September future is down by more than 50 points right now. After opening, it will get support at 8070 to 8060 levels. Below 8060, bulls may stop their quick effect and it can hit levels of 8025-8000 levels in quick succession. It will face resistance at 8100 to 8110 after opening. It will be interesting Monday if it goes below 8060.

S&P 500 (USA) – It hit a low at 1980 and closed with the loss of 12 points. Right now, S&P Future is down by 7 points and giving hint for negative opening for US market. We still have 12 hour to open. The fact is that if it opens below 1980 then it can quickly slip to 1970 levels which is already my first target for correction. As long as S&P is below 2000 marks, I will say that we will not get 2011 in 2014 anymore. Note- 2011 is high point of S&P, it is not the year 2011. 

NIFTY weekly analysis for 15 September’14 to 19 September’14

Elliott wave theory: A dull close on weekly chart may be first hint of tired market. Well, tired market should be named as beginning of correction. Still, I believe that 8180 may be the top for some time. Either it needs to jump above 8180 quickly or it can close below 8000 level to name as short term top.

Market cycle: It was marginal only but fifth week turn negative with a confirmation of market cycle. If this goes right then we must watch for support at 8050. If it gives close below 8050 anytime then we can see a possible correction. For upside, chances look limited but it will be bullish for target of 8250 as long as it is above 8050. Complex week ahead for Nifty.

Technical indicators: MACD and RSI are growing with negative divergence. This is alarming. This is prime reason that I am advising strong caution.

Charting pattern: I always listen this factor and try to gives higher weightage as its only and only price which pays in market. Charts are saying that as long we are above 7860-8000, we are bound to see higher levels. Above 8180, it can see levels of 8240 before forming any final top.