You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
On 23 January
2013 , FII
bought INR 802.62 crs and DII sold INR 852.33 crs.
We have seen sharp recovery
yesterday from lower levels of 6020. It was not very expected levels but
reasons were equally odd. It is fashionable to give support to the market by
big talk. I have no reason to believe that we will get anything lower on fiscal
deficit, no matter who advocated.
From past three days, my idea is
that we should have stiff resistance at 6100 and then market should retrace
towards 20 EMA. It has slipped from 6100 and as of yesterday’s close 20 EMA is
at 5996 levels. I am still feeling that we will see stiff resistance at 6100
marks on any rise.
Before making a top market tends to
give some indications in advance. We have relatively lower performance by mid
cap and small cap indices. These indices are performing poorer compared to blue
chip indices. Another worry point is that advance-decline ratio is constantly
poor from past many trading sessions.
I have already discussed the
negative divergence by MACD and RSI on daily charts. This could result some
sharp impulse at higher levels. Yesterday’s rebound from lower was also another
example. This is still not comforting. We need to remember that RSI and MACD
are hinting that rise will be limited above 6000 marks and it is true till now.
In spite of tremendous money flow by FII, our market is at least not
rising.
I am repeating that RBI may not go
for 50 bps repo rate cut looking on inflationary environment. This can be
disappointment for market but market is not discounting this yet.
Strategy for Nifty January future: We can expect a pause on rise at
6082. Cross over of 6082 might result the attempt towards 6111 levels but it
may fail again. It is looking like we may see fall from higher levels. In the
down side, I am already quoting for support at 20 EMA. This is showing that
Nifty future need to come near to 6000 to 6010 marks. We need to remember that
as long as we are saving 20 EMA, it may rebound like yesterday.
S&P 500 – Day by day it is inching closer
to 1500 marks. After market hours APPLE disappointment is coming. US
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
