NIFTY 30 JULY 2021 : Patterns are still giving no conviction for cross of 15900. Eventually it can fall again towards 15600.

 

Good Morning friends, 

            I hope you got my point in yesterday's trade. A bounce and short. It looks like market will open gap down. Will this see any recovery today? Nothing is impossible but chances are little less. Even if recovery comes it may get sold on top. 

I still suggest we are not too far from all time high and hence I am not referring this market as weak in any time frame. This can just be a pull back and trading opportunity. Hence keep your risk management strict. 

Now, once you decide your stop loss then you can expect a move towards 15600 again. If it starts closing below 15300 then one can name this market as weak and we are too far from those levels. 

I am already trading with low to moderate volume on short side. 

Once there is gap down, there is no point to short low due to unfavorable risk to reward ratio. 

Happy Tradaing, 

NIFTY 29 JULY 2021 : Expect fall again from higher levels. Resistance may be 15850-15900.

Good Morning Friends, 

Yesterday we saw some flash sell off again in first half. In panic Nifty broke 15600 and low goes around 15513. This is more than expected fall but recovery hit very quickly. This suggest that there are buyer to buy lower levels. 

So can we expect continuation of recovery?

A simple answer is that at some point buyer or seller will get exhausted and then only we can expect a breakout of trade. Who will exhausted first, is a billion dollar question. 

Technical charts say support at 15600 and then at 15500. 

I will again look for opportunity to add short on bounce. Well, not only on bounce. I will short on bounce if I get some confirmation pattern for fall. 

One thing is clear that we need to maintain a very strict money management. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

 

NIFTY 28 JULY 2021 : Nifty slipped as expected and hit a low at 15701. It can slip again after bounce?

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I have already updated too many times that Nifty remains heavy at 15900 levels. It shown weakness at top again and then eventually slipped. Yesterday it hit a low at 15701. Can we expect a bounce

Yes, as it is shown by SGX Nifty but picture may not change. I am expecting a fall after bounce and that bounce may remains an initial bounce. 

Take a note that we may see opening quote near at15800 and that level may remain a zone of resistance. Still, I feel that one should prefer to take caution at initial hours of trades. 

If market generate pattern of weakness above 15800 and below 15850 then I will prefer to add short again. 

Do not expect market to go beyond 15600 to 15950 quickly. Don't matter we spend two months in this zone. So far we have no great signal of breakout. 

Happy Trading 

NIFTY 27 JULY 2021 : Its nearly 2 months in same zone. Still NIFTY remains indecisive near 15900 levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Its almost two months that we are near 15600 levels but still indecisive mode. Technical set up is still not giving great clue for breakout time. So far it looks like Nifty will turn heavy again near 15900 to 15960 levels. 

There are chances that if it fails to give breakout on higher side then we can able to see 15600 levels again. So, I am sitting blank as of now and waiting for next move. I may add some position on short side on weakness but with very strict stop loss with Nifty spot equivalent to 15960 + levels. (All depends on intraday setup to take such decision). Take a note it can be contra deal and do not move with out stop loss. 

Do not play khatron ke khiladi season 12. Just joking.... you are good enough to put stop loss. 

Does anyone talk about 16000? Number of people anticipating such levels are lesser this time. 

Let us see how much opportunity we get today. 

Happy Trading 

NIFTY 26 JULY 2021 : Again trade near 15900 would not be good to stay long. It may fall again.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

In the last trading session when Nifty came at 15883, I punched order to book all my long position and added few puts. I posted hourly chart above. You can see how many times it has slipped from 15900 or nearer levels. 

My point is clear - If I have to buy from near to 15900 then I will prefer to buy a breakout close. Else I will remains blank. 

If price follow history then it can again slip towards 15600 levels. As of now, it looks like we are in a range. Best part is that even after it stuck in a range it gives trade. Well, but you have to be on right side. 

Let us see how it react today. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 23 JULY 2021 : Up swing is likely to continue but it can face resistance @ 15850-15900 again.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Bounce came and sustained till the end of trade. I plotted an hourly chart above. I must say that 15850 is a also a crucial levels to watch on higher side. 

One major thing that goes in favour of bulls is that this time momentum indicator is already too low and hence bounce may sustain. Well, its not a guarantee. There are few important resistances and Nifty may react from one of the levels. It may face resistance at 1580 or 15902 or may at 15960 levels. 

Support by any chance it slips below 15750 levels then it may turn weak. 

Patterns are somehow looking to give some wild swing in the day. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 22 JULY 2021: We can expect a traditional bounce from support of 15600 support zone. 15800 may be on hunt again.

 

Good Morning Friends,

Nifty hit a low around 15578 in the last trading session and then we saw some revival. That revival was a point to add long. I have already anticipated for the support around 15600. 

I am still repeating as long as Nifty is above 15600 there is no point to get panic from trend. It may not be better to name as trend. Nifty stuck in a range and taking swings only in the zone of 15600 to 15900 levels. 

It may not be easy to predict the time for breakout but swing may be easy to trade. Simple strategy is to short around 15900 and to add long around 15600. Risk management must be followed in every trade. 

I am expecting a bounce today. I have a disclosure that I have some long trade from past session from levels around 15600. 

Happy trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 20 JULY 2021 : Its just not the point to be panic as long as NIFTY is tall above 15600.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I kept waiting for 15600 and my waiting never end. I was pleasantly surprised by the better than expected relative strength in Indian market. How much money is in waiting line. 

From technical prospective, there is no point to be panic as long as Nifty is above 15600 levels. I am expecting some firm trade today. 

Let us see how it open and trade. I will look for the oppotunity to trade long. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 19 JULY 2021 : SGX NIFTY down 200 points. CORONA VIRUS and INFLATION fir se jag gaya.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Have a look on above chart, it is on hourly time frame. Market has convincing above 15900 but it was never be comfortable above 15940 levels. This gave a sense of caution, some was not convincing on Friday and here comes reason. 

Reason may just be add. I learn from some News paper that Asian market is lower on Virus and Inflation concern. This is how technical works. It gave you no comfort first and then news hit. 

Gap down is very likely. Support is it does not fill the gap then it will be named as "truncation".

It is will be willing to fill the gap then its opportunity. I will look for opportunity after gap down. May be near 15600 again..... not too sure but some formation may comes. If there will be no signal to buy from low then I will make a holiday. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar  

NIFTY 16 JULY 2021 : Nifty gave a clear breakout. Possible target can be 16400-16500 levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It was a great breakout which came with conviction. On daily chart it gave a contraction in volatility pattern which normally favour the rise. From now onwards even 15900 will act as strong support so it may be the best possible risk reward ratio in favour of bulls. 

Even if it breaks occasionally then also up trend will remains intact and can be bought in any possible dip. It is very unlikely to expect break below 15670 levels. 

On higher side we can expect a possible target of 16400 to 16500 levels. It is that kind of strong pattern which can give as big as 1000 point of rally. 

Hence, there is no possibility to trade short. If one want then can be a contra trade. 

Hope in coming days we can expect more firm signals now. 

Happy trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 15 JULY 2021 : Can we expect an upside breakout? Expect decisive move today.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

If I say yesterday was a good and unexpected strength then I may not be too wrong. Still, Nifty is in the zone of resistance of 15850 to 15900 levels. I am taking approximate safe levels above which we must be strongly bullish and it is 15940. 

On upside breakout it can give as big as 16400-16500 levels. What if it fails again?

Well, in that case Nifty will again move around 15600 levels for support. It is a 50-50 take so it is always better to get some good confirmatory signal to trade. 

Volatility contraction is in favour of bulls. On other hand, many momentum indicators are running with divergence. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

Nifty 14 July 2021 : Once again 15850 to 15900 will be the zone resistance. Breakout in any direction to come sooner.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

What we saw yesterday was another bounce which came as as a reaction from near to support of 15600 levels. Have a look on above hourly chart which shows that market may face resistance in the zone of 15850 to 15900 levels. This is another swings in current trading range of 15600 to 15900. 

It is very hard to say when will this range breaks but it should happen very sooner now. This is going to be very interesting. I advise caution from long trades and it can truncate at higher levels again. I am expecting a down day today. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 12 JULY 2021: Meaningful support is still at 15600 with upper side resistance at 15800-15900.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Today is first trading session of the week. We saw some revival on Friday from lower levels but this recovery is not as strong as past few recoveries from same levels. We can able to see multiple swings on chart in 15600 to 15900 zone. 

What I expect for today is a firm opening with support at 15600. My first watch point is 15750 levels. I will not prefer to trade long on Index from higher levels for today. We already saw too many swings in this zone ad now traders may be tired of this levels. This can result breakout of the zone. 

I am lot intended for breakout trade 

Let us see when it comes.

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 09 JULY 2021 : Nifty to retest support of 15600 and then it will turn decisive.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I must say that this fall came with lots of warning. What's next for today?

Do not misconclude from heading that I am betting on recovery. It is a possibility and I would like to see reaction at 15600. What I mean to say is that 15600 is decisive support and some relief may emerge. (or may not). 

If it breaks 15600 then we can expect fall towards 15460. Final medium term support is at 15300 levels. Somehow momentum is shifting. Everytime some sector, some stock come to save but overall buying remains dull at top. 

I will opt buying with lots of terms and condition. Means only if reaction and pattern will appeal to bulls. In the absence of such indication, it is safer to stay away. 

On higher side, resistance will be at 15800. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 08 JULY 2021 : We are again on decisive resistance zone. Safer side - wait for 15940 - 15960 crossover

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Above is hourly chart of Nifty. We can able to see two reverse H&S pattern. We can have two outcome above pattern. 

1) Draw a N Line- I am picking some safer side as 15940-15960 zone. If Nifty can cross above those resistance then we can expect a strong rally. Can you believe that a good crossover can give 16500 on Nifty. 

2) Second outcome is the reaction from N line. In that case, Nifty can fall again and it may again test 15600.

I have conviction that sooner or later Nifty may break higher. Only point of concern in volatility contraction. This may not give you to trade long now but surely it is a good indication for rise. Well but time will come only on cross over. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 07 JULY 2021 : It faced resistance on expected 15900 levels. Be cautious at higher levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

What has happen yesterday was not totally unexpected. Nifty was not comfortable above 15900 and hence slipped. It was not just a slip, somewhat it was panic sell off lead by Tata Motors. (TATA MOTORS - If one has investment buy or medium term view then also make exit on any rise. From current levels of 320, I do not see value after what they announced yesterday). 

Let us talk about Nifty. Closing is above 15800, so I cannot say that its a big dent but it may be beginning of dent. Take a basic logic - A fall is concerning only and only if it get follow up. Hence, Today is the day to watch. If it close with fall today then we can see concern. 

So, make or break day. Either it will take fresh attempt for 15900 or may go to test 15600 again. There are so many swings. 

I am not interested for long trade for the day. Be cautious at higher levels. 

Happy trading

NIFTY 06 JULY 2021 : After a bounce, it is on decisive resistance zone of 15850 to 15900 levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I am keeping analysis simple for the day. Nifty is again going to face resistance at 15850 to 15900 level. We are witnessing in great dip in price volatility. Charts are showing the contraction in price range. Usually this kind of price contraction is meaningful after a breakout. 

This gave me a sense to watch out for the day. If Nifty gives any sign of weakness then we should prefer trading short. If there is a sign of breakout above 15900 then we will play for long. Well, for trading long, clear cut condition is that Nifty has to trade above 15900 confidently. 

Be ready to trade in any direction. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 05 JULY 2021 : Nifty has saved strong support of 15600 and we can now expect 15800-15850 levels.

  Good Morning friends, 

After a continuous flat to weak trade last week, Nifty has finally saved important support of 15600. Above is hourly chart which is justifying this pullback. This pullback should at least continue to hit 15800 to 15850 levels. 

I must add that we should still be cautious at higher levels near by 15900 levels. Expect the respect of 15600 as of now. I have a disclosure that I have added long in the last session on index future. Still, I have conviction for more rise. I will not be greedy to trade long near 15900. That's crucial levels. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 02 JULY 2021 : Bulls may have hope from support of 15600 levels. Action depends on reaction @ or near 15600.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

This fall towards 15650 was expected but I was expecting some meaningful bounce but we hardly got any bounce. It was a weak closing yesterday. 

Question is what to expect from today?

At one go we can sense a support at 15600 and this is the level where bulls may have some hope. Any fall below 15600 may be impulsive and rapid. I cannot say that we have too many technical justification for 15600. It is a recent support from where we got few bounce. I suggest to watch out for reaction at 15600. If strength appear then we can hope for recovery. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 01 JULY 2021 : Previous support levels of 15650 - 15600 should come in force.

 

Good morning Friends, 

I am already quoting it from past many days that Nifty doesn't have good thrust to cross above 15900 levels. Hence, we can able to see a fall from higher levels. Yesterday was another such day. 

I cannot say either that this fall can intensify immediately. We have some meaningful support at 15650 to 15600 levels. I hope that Nifty will take support at 15600 in case of fall. Even on rise you have not too good on up side also. 

In this kind of short range it is very important to be level specific and trade on good timing. It is better to focus on some meaningful stock. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar