You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 29 August 2016: -
On 26 August 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 341.35 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 266.43 Crs
I have already warned for a possible breakdown kind of situation which
can be treated as mini correction. In on-going process we can expect market to
head towards 8400-8300 levels. Nifty will face hurdle at 8600-8700 for medium
term. This week trend is looking down. My preferred trade will be on short side
on index for whole this week. Use pullback to short only. Do not buy.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open flat or
little lower. We can expect sell off mode confirming below 8540 itself. On
charting structure we can see a triangle break down as mentioned. Usually this
kind of pattern favours bears. If follow up selling goes on then we can see a
wild target on down side. Take a note that we do not any near term trigger for market
to remains up.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – I turn active on 8500 put. Well, I may opt to hold this for some time.
Technically, Nifty will see stiff resistance at 8660 to 8680 levels. I must say
that this kind of heavy premium value will not sustain for longer this month. I
will just prefer any pullback to short Nifty September future at suitable
levels. Take a note that suitable levels may not come immediately. Wait and
watch before adding shorts.
BANK NIFTY – This index is
convincing me that we may have very limited rise on higher side even after
breakout situation it is not moving higher. Let us see how it trade today. My
study and levels remains same. Avoid
present breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of
strength which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200
I may not opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short
this very seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see
resistance emerging at each higher level.
