You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 10 July 2014: -
On 09 July 2014, FII Bought INR 645.19 crs and DII Sold INR
265.19 crs
We are on budget day. This date is as important as 16th
May 2014. This is first test of reality of hope for Modi government. Market
wants to measure their capacity over the hopes that it has built in past more
than six months. We saw a volatile session yesterday but there were many mid
cap stocks which have slipped substantially.
I am simplifying market expectation from budget. One line –
What budget can give to reduce fiscal deficit? If budget gives hope to stock
market then it will take away hopes from voters. Hence, it is going to be tough
task. Whom can finance minister is going to give priority. Infra and reality
stocks are nervous before budget.
It’s a mess on chart as you saw this but note all support -
7520>7442>7393>7342>7215
We can see intraday bottom out of any one of these supports. Threshold
support for fall will be at 7550. If it breaks below 7550 then it will only
favour bears. On Higher side it needs to stand well above 7650 to convince
bulls. So we have full 100 points range to speculate. I have no forward
position to trade.
For today’s session, opening should be on nervous but on
higher side only. Do not trade first hour as market will enter in action mode
only after budget speech starts. I have few points to even support bulls. Well,
a corrective small up wave should come from low against sharp fall. I predict
for 4% swing in post budget sessions. Remember, this 4% can be either fall of
4% from top or recovery of 4% from bottom.
So, let a primary trend establish. Adventure is definitely
not required at this time.
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Strategy for Nifty July
future – Nifty July
future should start near 7630. Do not short until it breaks 7570. Do not
attempt to short a market which goes in recovery mode. It is strongly advisable
to wait for a primary intraday trend to develop which can establish after
budget speech only. Do not even make a mind frame that this market can crash
only.
S&P 500 (USA) – I had different thought about
pullback. In my view it should not move above 1970 but it moved. It is still
fine so far as I want to short this pullback. It is still fine if I get
something in the range of 1985. Well, let it go. This bounce is coming to form
a double top pattern with second top lower than the first one. I like to wait
to see today’s action too for adding short.
