24 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Simple suggestion – Do not deal index till Budget!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

24 January 2017: -

On 20 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 288.80 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 519.99 Crs

Frankly, this kind of moves makes trader tired. I am just not going to deal more till budget. It’s a frustrating market with on great direction. I am almost sure that market will not get anything much from budget. It’s unnecessary resilience against market dynamics. I am feeling that market had given one hint of this happening with development of “W” pattern.

It is my speculation that Nifty can take a swing of 300-500 points on budget day. My speculation is based on study of historical patterns on pre-budget days. I am concluding this based on my study of 15 days moves before budget every year.

For today’s trading I may not opt to trade index. I am feeling to trade stocks only which are more comfortable. Nifty will not do anything. Do not expect anything even on derivative expiry day. Only good thing is that I am confident plan for budget day. I have same old levels for the day. On higher side resistance will be at 8440 and 8470. In the lower side meaningful support is at 8360 and 8330.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Nifty future took a bounce yesterday and this was not making sense on chart. Only thing that I can say that market do not want to fall before budget. I must remind that nothing has changed on Elliott wave long term chart. Market is bound to fail at top. January future is likely to hit levels like 8440 to 8470.  

BANK NIFTY January future – I was expecting 18500 and it reversed yesterday. Well, this makes me feel that nothing is going to happen next for many days. It will just invite traders to do mistake. If one wants to deal then prefer to take trades for not more than 100 points. This is the only way to trade. I am still not very sure that it can show similar kind of strength after budget.