You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
02 February 2017: -
On 01 February 2017: FII Net Bought – 92.73 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1133.74 Crs
I am keeping market reaction at one side and I felt that this is a
good budget. It has not surprised negatively before election in many states. Stock
market has already given its reaction. It has pre budget rally and it has rally
on budget day. Well, now budget has done and historically it will not have reactions
for more than one two days.
For today’s trading I am expecting that market will take a pause.
Fibonacci retrenchment has given resistance in the zone of 8700 to 8740 levels.
It is 78.60% retrenchment. Yesterday was a great reaction towards budget and
normal market dynamics suggesting for price correction against this momentum. I
am not saying for immediate shorting. There is a support at 8660 and as long as
it holds 8660 we cannot expect a signal for weakness.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty February
future – A simple level – 8760. Have a look for this. If it crosses then we
can expect another furious up wave (or extension of wave). Technical support is
at 8660-8680 levels. On way of looking in to it is can it extend gains from
nearby support of 8680-8660 to a 100 points rise? Well, today is the litmus
test.
BANK NIFTY February future –
20000 has done and trend based momentum target may be looking towards
20300-205000 levels. Shall I expect more momentum? Let me tell you that in a
euphoric rise top used to come at the time when least people expect about it. Today
may be such day. I may have less chance to trade long without any price
correction.
