NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 31 DECEMBER 2021 : Keep an eye on 17150 support zone. Decisive break can result some fall. Bank Nifty can test 34600 on break down situation.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 30 DECEMBER 2021 : Flat market may favour bears, below 17150 will trigger levels of 17100- 17000. Resistance 17260.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 29 DECEMBER 2021 : Trade only of breakout on either side. else a dead market expected. Nifty support - 17100, BANK NIFTY - 34800

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS 28 DECEMBER 2021 : Above 17100, it can go to test 17300-17350 levels. If gap up comes then be cautious at 17150 levels. Bank nifty can be impressive.

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 27 DECEMBER 2021: Decisive support for Nifty is 16900 while on BANKNIFTY 34000 can be major level. Break below 34000 could ignite 32000 levels.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 23 DECEMBER 2021 : Small gap up should favour short covering rally up to 17100+. Important support @ 16940.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 22 DECEMBER 2021 : Caution required at higher levels. NIFTY decisive resistance at 16940.

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 21 DECEMBER 2021 : Expect a bounce bounce due to gap up but resistance remains at 16800 levels or may be before.

 Key - Nifty is above 200 DMA but BANK NIFTY is below 200 DMA. Which will pull whom?

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 20 DECMBER 2021 : Expect some support at 16800-16790 levels. Failure could give BLACK MONDAY.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 17 DECEMBER 2021 : Keep an eye on decisive 17200 - 17180 levels. It can be brutal below support.

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 16 DECEMBER 2021 : Expect rise even after gap up. Nifty turn good above 17300+ opening.

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 15 DECEMBER 2021 : Expect a choppy session if it saves support, Nifty @ 17240-17200.

 

NIFTY & BANKNIFTY 14 DECEMBER 2021 : Gap down can spoil sport. Do not short without some recovery. Nifty can hit 16800 sooner or later.

 

NIFTY & BANK NIFTY 13 DECEMBER 2021 : Prefer to avoid morning gap for fresh long trade. It may truncate.

 

NIFTY 10 DECEMBER 2021 : For bank Nifty keep an eye on 36900. On upper side, Nifty will be decisive above yesterday's high.

 

NIFTY 9 DECEMBER 2021 : Its weekly derivative expiry and hence do not run on initial gap up. It can fall without testing 17600.

 

NIFTY 08 DECEMBER 2021 : It can take fresh up move if maintains above 17280 levels. Next target can be 17500. Cautious at higher levels.

 

NIFTY 07 DECEMBER 2021 : NIFTY SUPPORT IS AT 16790. THIS IS MAKE OR BREAK LEVELS.

 

NIFTY 03 DECEMBER 2021 : Caution on higher levels if it fails around 17400-17450 levels. Decisive 17280.

 

NIFTY 30 NOVEMBER 2021 : Nifty can revisit 16800 levels. No rise can sustain unless it goes above 17200 levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

Well, it has closed below 100 DMA and it has faced resistance at 100 DMA. This market is definitely turning weaker on chart as the days progresses. 

It is looking for retest of 16800 levels again. I have drawn some Fibonacci retracement and it is looking to take support in the range of 16800 to 16600 levels and that's too wide.  

If it breaks 16600 then we can visit the levels of 16200 to 16000 levels. While on higher side it may not be safe as long as it is staying below 17200 levels. 

Flat start may again invite selling but I will not be easily tradable. We already saw too many swings in the last session. 

At these levels I advised caution even from long term picking. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 29 NOV 2021 : Will it break 17000 so easily? Resistance is at 100 EMA which is at 17145.

 

Good morning friends, 

It was a sell off and a panic selling too. Eventually it broke 100 EMA with ease. Now, question is will it break 17000 levels in that ease?

Fine, as per charts are concern, 16890-16800 is the level to be tested but it seems we are going to get gap up as indicated by SGX nifty. 

In that case 17145 which is 100 EMA will act as threshold point. Definitely, I will not short this market without bounce. It is likely to test 17250-17300-17350 levels if this can manage to stay above 17150 levels. 

If break 17000, in an hour it can hit 16890-16800. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 25 NOVEMBER 2021 : No bounce can sustain below 17600. It is preparing for 16800 levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

Nifty faced resistance at 17600 levels and slipped. What a slip it was. It has given edge to bears. Now we have two meaningful support. One is at 17230 then at phycological 17000 and then at 16800 levels. 

On higher side even 17500 may act as stiff resistance. Final resistance is at 17600. If it can sustain above 17600 then only we will have some words for bulls. 

Today is monthly expiry and it is interesting to see. It is looking like we may get continuation of sell off. 

Regards, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 22 November 2021 : H&S pattern can give a fall towards 16800 after a n-line test of 17600.

 

Good morning friends, 

Well, need to say what is happening in this market? Charts is speaking itself. Above is daily chart. It has formed H&S pattern and we got a breakout too. 

We have 100 DMA at 17130 levels which is a support. Bulls, be happy with this only. 

maximum we can get a retest of n-line which is at 17600 levels and this market is likely to be prepared for 16800 sooner or later. 

I gave my suspicion of trend reversal. Now, I am almost sure. 

If you are playing for bounce then also be careful. 

Happy Trading.  

NIFTY 17 NOVEMBER 2021 : Keep an eye on 17900 levels. If it breaks then we can see anther big intraday slip.

 Good morning friends, 

Now a day it is better to analyze with hourly chart. Above it same and it is showing support at 17900. Big question is will it test 17900?

Technical sense is that it will test 17900 and then it will be make or break levels. It is rebound from 17900 or say 17930 or say 17890, it can sustain for one bounce. 

Suppose it is fail at 17900 then it will go to hit 17800 to 17750 levels. 

Once again, it seems that 10 am is going to crucial as most of the directive move comes afterwards. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 15 NOVEMBER 2021 : Now Nifty is likely to face resistance at 18200 or at 18350 levels. Expect volatility and tussle.

 Good morning friends, 

This is hourly chart of Nifty and this is really am impressive chart. I have quoted for the target of 18100 in the last session but I was not expecting this to come so early. This creates the momentum. 

Will this invite for new all time high? 

Fine, it is giving the sense every time but somehow that momentum has yet to come. Suppose if we got impressive today also then we may have  great chance. 

In that way today seems to be a make or break day. Either Nifty will manage top and strong close or it will give us at top. 

Failure of any top around 18200 can invite the retest of 17900 again. 

Cross over of 18200 can push Nifty towards 18350 levels. 

Let us see how it shapes and where is the trading opportunity. If opens with gap up then it will even more difficult. Gap up may result one intraday dip around 10 am. It will be hard to say if it is a dip to buy or sign of weakness. Be careful. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 12 NOVEMBER 2021 : Once again, bounce from 17800, now eyeing for 18000 to 18100 marks.

 Good morning friends, 

Above is the hourly chart of nifty. We can able to observe the support coming at 17800 levels. This support can lead Nifty to some recovery after sharp fall. If Nifty shape up well this morning with good opening then this market can go test 18100 levels too. 

Well, it may be too early to talk about 18100 but immediate target can be 17960 levels. A level which work many time in recent days. 

Suppose if it makes much of trade above 17960 then it will great sign of strength. 

Now, support if it doesn't. Well, in that alter view will in force. It means Nifty can have a chance to go back to 17800. 

Keep above levels and views in mind. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 11 NOVEMBER 2021 : Nifty is likely to face resistance at 18100 levels. Break below 17930 could invite bears.

 

Good morning friends, 

Yesterday also we saw a gain but then it slipped from higher levels again. The high was again lower than 18100 levels. 

This is confirming the resistance of 18100. Now we have weekly derivative expiry. Technical sense is that if it breaks 17930 then we can see a remarkable dip. This dip could be around 17850 to 17800 levels. 

I suggest it is going to be volatile to highly volatility.  

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 10 NOVEMBER 2021 : Facing resistance at 18100 levels, Nifty is likely to move around 17850 to 17700 levels.

 Good morning friends, 

Yesterday was a day of confusion that run whole day but biasing remains bearish. Now, it is likely to take gap down opening. 

Well, will this gap down invite some bounce? It should give us a bounce but that's not compulsory. Even if it comes then also it may fail at 18000 levels. 

It is looking like trend is changing for medium term at least. If that happens then it is a bad news for market. I suggest do not attempt long trade today even in dip because it may go dicey at every levels. 

Be careful, I am expecting unprecedented volatility. 

Happy trading.  

NIFTY 9 NOVEMBER 2021 : Nifty came up surprisingly. If maintains above 18100 then we can see some more upmove.

 

Good morning friends, 

Definitely I was not expecting this bounce. The moment it crosses 17960-17970, it added great sign of fueling for upside. It looks like after Diwali, money and momentum came back in the market. 

Now 18000 should be a trading support and 17950 should be a trading support. You can have a look on above chart where I have drawn an upward trading channel. 

If this trading move sustain then we can expect a target of 18350 and then on fresh claim we can expect a new all time high. Opps, too early to say. Right now, first we have see how Nifty treat 18150. 

Be careful at 18150 and 18000 levels. These can be dicey levels. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 08 NOVEMBER 2021 : Nifty is looking for form a H&S pattern. Longer it stay below 18000, higher will be chance for 17500 kinda levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

I said this earlier too and repeating it now also. Longer Nifty stay below 18000 levels, higher will be chance for 17600-17500 levels. 

Does this result the change in trend. 50 Days Moving average is nearing at 17700 levels. Pattern wise is is looking for short term trend reversal. I am not saying that long term is going to chance in anyhow. We are far too higher than those levels. 

For todays trading, Nifty will face 17960 < 18000 < 18050 levels. I am finding it easier for slip towards 17800- 17700 levels. 

Take a note what has happened on Wednesday. It slipped two hundred points then bounced 100+ points and then slipped again by 150 points. This is not easily manageable.  

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 03 NOVEMBER 2021 : Weekly expiry can be extremely volatile to down before Diwali trading.

 

Good morning friends, 

Nothing is impossible in stock market. When it was looking like never fall market, it slipped. Now, It is not moving above 18000 and giving every indication of dip. We have weekly derivative expiry today and tomorrow will be Diwali holiday. 

I am not quoting any levels as support. It is looking as Nifty may not cross above 17960 and then it can slip to test 17650 to 17600 levels sooner or later. 

What's for bulls?

Fine, first indication to buy can come only above 17960. Any rise above 17960 can sustain. It is very unlikely to happen but this is a possibility. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 02 NOVEMBER 2021 : Nifty has test point for bulls at 17960 and 18000 and 18050. Caution advised at these levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

Nifty took a swing from lower levels as expected and closing was also impressive. The next important level is 17960 < 18000 < 18050. 

Fine, yesterday was an easy day for bulls and today we may have different day. I may not be as aggressive as yesterday. In fact today may be a day of caution. 

I am still advising long trade only but be cautious when ever Nifty comes at 17960 or 18000 or 18050. 

If Nifty to reverse for long term or medium term then it may fail at any of the above levels. I can say today be the test day for bulls. 

Take a note longer it sustain below 18000, higher is the chance of trend reversal. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 01 NOVEMBER 2021 : Bounce is very likely now. Interesting to see today's top.

 

Good morning friends, 

Nifty as rebounded from lower levels but sold again at higher levels. Eventually it closed on weak note only. If I can see the change on the chart, it is RSI. 

It is definitely interesting to see how top is going to shape up today. I am expecting a gap up opening. If this gap up sustain then a target that should be reachable 17800 and then 17950 levels. Well, when I am writing this I am expecting too much from market. 

Market need fresh money to reach those levels. Nifty has almost filled many gap up trade with this recent fall. 

Will the new all time high come again?

I have no clear cut answer now. Longer it sustain below 18000, lower will be the chance. So by this of trade if this can move above 18000 then we can think of. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 29 OCTOBER 2021 : NIFTY is on breakdown mode, perhaps trend is reversing in medium term.

 

Good morning friends, 

Above is the daily chart of Nifty. I have few big words today. Charts are suggesting that trend might change. Why do I am saying that. 

Above is the channel breakout pattern and that's the really brutal breakout yesterday with not even any single intraday recovery. 

Next resistance is 18050 (Might tested), 18150 (Less chance), 18350 (Only above this up trend will resume). 

How dip can this market fall immediately. Fine, I am giving extreme possibility and that is 17400 levels. It doesn't mean you add shorts at any levels. It is a view and you need to adjust trading with proper risk and reward ratio. 

Can we expect a bounce today? I cannot deny. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 28 OCTOBER 2021 : Likely support will emerge at 18100. It can turn weak from higher levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

It took expected dip from levels near to 18320. In fact it was showing discomfort from 18320+ levels. Eventually it took a dip. It go to hit 18170 kind of levels and that's surprising. It is showing that market may not hold good above 18320 + levels. 

What's coming next?

It is very likely that Nifty may fail at top. The way I am seeing the chart, I am not expecting Nifty to go above 18260 for today. 

In the lower side it can come around 18100 levels sooner or later. 

We have Monthly derivative expiry today so be alert from false signals. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 27 OCTOBER 2021 : If it sustain above 18320 then 18500 may be on hit. Be cautious near 18300.

 Good morning friends, 

I was expecting 18250 levels and then a dip. We got same yesterday but bounce has pleasantly surprise me in closing hour. It seems that intensified buyers are back. 

Current chart pattern is suggesting that if Nifty can sustain above 18320 then we can expect 18500+ levels. Who knows if we can get a new all time high also. 

So 18320 is crucial. It will act as make or break levels. So it safer to be cautious at higher levels near 18300 levels. Let it cross 18320. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 26 OCTOBER 2021 : Rebound from support can take Nifty towards 18200 to 18250 levels, higher levels may not sustain either.

 

Good morning friends, 

I have quoted for support at 18050 to 17950 yesterday. Nifty took a dip in to that levels but due to strong support, it has rebounded too. It was a too big day yesterday. 

Now let us talk about rebound and the possibilities for the day. 

It is very logical to talk about the top to be somewhere near or above yesterday's high. It can be at or above 18200. 18200 may be a make or break levels. If it fail to attract buyer then it will again see a fall. 

If it get buyer above resistance then 18250 and 18300 may also be the possibility. 

Now buyer are not that much strong as it used to be early days. So be cautious at resistance and higher levels. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 25 OCTOBER 2021 : 18050 TO 17950 can act as good support in down side.

 

Good morning friends, 

Above is the hourly chart of Nifty. We can clearly see the levels of 18050 to 17950 as good trading support. If market rebounded from current zone then we can expect rebound to sustain. 
Above is the most likely scenario. 

Let us see the alter sense also. If Nifty breaks 17950 by any chance then Nifty will be in worse shape of recent time. It can go to drag towards levels of 17600-17500 levels. Who knows what can change if that happens. 

[Note - I am also studying monthly chart which is suggesting me that this super rally will end either by this year end or max by early next year. Anyhow it looks as bearish 2022. Hence avoid fresh investment].

Happy Trdaing 

NIFTY 22 OCTOBER 2021 : Very likely to rebound till 18259 and then 18340.

 

Good morning Friends, 

Nifty get a support at 18050 levels and rebounded. This rebound was really impressive. Right now Nifty is looking better for a round based on momentum. This market still has bullish undertone and we are likely to see higher levels today. 

Two levels that comes in the chart is 18259 and then we can expect a sharp rise till 18340 levels. 

Well, can we expect a new all time high again?

Fine, I cannot deny the possibilities. 

I do not suggest shorting today at levels. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 21 OCTOBER 2021 : Yesterday's low around 18200 is a decisive support.

 

Good morning friends, 

Nifty hit the expected levels of 18250 to 18150. It has made a bottom of 18208 yesterday before a pull back. 

I studied hourly chart too and found that 18200 may act as support. A bullish market used to respect every support. I am not going to prefer shorting this market unless settle below 18200 levels. On higher side, I see a meaningful resistance at 18340 levels. 

18340 looks too far but this is the levels where I can expect a good risk reward ratio for trading on short side. 

A big question. Has the top done? 

May be not. May be not. We may see consolidation but Nifty has yet to give many sign before call for top. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 20 OCTOBER 2021 : Nifty is likely to correct up to 18250-18150 levels.

 

Good morning friends, 

Shorting is a sin this market. Still above chart is suggesting me for the price correction up to 18250 to 18150 levels. This correction is going to be the result of many big gap up opening. This can just be the usual pull back in the price. 

It is just not going to hurt anything for up trend. Nevertheless, just one day of 50 points fall cannot be named as any sign of weakness. 

Warning situation is that price is moving too higher than any moving average. Price will try to come near to moving average. 

Is there any scope of trading long?

This market is all about trading long with proper risk rewards. Wait for strength signal which will come soon then add long. 

Happy trading 

NIFTY 18 OCTOBER 2021 : Too many gap up to trade. Likely to face resistance at 18500 and 18700 levels

 Good morning friends, 

We saw two big gap up and then a up market. SGX Nifty is giving a hint to another 80 points higher opening. That's make me uncomfortable to trade. I cannot afford to short this market as it is making new high. 

A bind long and hold is the only strategy that work in this kind of market. 

From option data it seems that market will face resistance at 18500 or 18700 levels which is most likely levels to be testes. I am not denying further rise. 

Shorting is a crime in this market. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 14 OCTOBER 2021 : Another new all time high day. Is it looking for 18500???

 

Good morning friends, 

Above is the daily chart. It is clearly showing a resistance free zone and hence I am not in favour of shorting this market. 

Where is support?

18100 levels is looking to act as support based on intraday movement. It is looking to hit 18300 first and then it may hit 18500 levels. 

I am advising caution at higher levels. Personally, I am not in favour to trade aggressive long. In case of higher opening, I will prefer to sit silent. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 13 OCTOBER 2021 : Nifty likely to challenge for new all time high again. Expect 18100-18050.

 

Good morning friends, 

I am back again. Well, we saw a sharp recovery from 17860 levels and that was great. Now I am expecting a firm opening and that will give us levels like 18100 to 18150. 

Big question is will it face resistance at top. My answer is simple that it is unpredictable. It may face resistance and may not face resistance. Chances are 50-50. 

I strongly suggest not to short this market unless it gives you some pattern for topping. If top has to comes then it may come at 18150 levels or near by but I may not prefer shorting. 

My rule is simple, not to short a market which makes a new all time high. 

Better is - trade long. It will give reward. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 01 OCTOBER 2021 : Nifty likely to open lower and on support at 17440-17400 levels. No trade.

 

Good morning friends, 

I always advise traders not to trade on temptation. Most temptation comes with euphoric market. Previously it was euphoric rise and now it seems we are going to witness euphoric fall. 

Yesterday it broke 17600 marks in closing minutes but now what I am witnessing on SGX is really scary. It is looking to open with 150 points downside opening. 

Gaps are not in the hand of traders. What is to be done after such gap down opening. My view remains same. 

Do not be tempted and do not be aggressive. It may not be easy anyway, the same way it was not easily tradable rise. 

Technical support is at 17440-17400 zone. If it recovers then its fine else it may get a door for 17200 levels. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 30 SEPTEMBER 2021 : 17600 is make or break support. Expect expiry volatility but avoid short at lows.

 

Good morning friends, 

I have a view. Market always depends on follow up of the trend. If this bullish trend has to continue then buyer has to emerge at support levels. One such meaningful support is at 17600 levels. 

As long as it is staying above 17600, we can expect a move towards all time high. I am not claiming that it will cross or not. 

Another big question is will it save 17600?

We can feel lot of if and but continues here. 

For todays trading session, I am getting technical sense of support emerging at lower levels. As of now SGX Nifty is giving a hint at lower start. 

We have monthly expiry today and that will add spice to the volatility. One must avoid shorting at lower levels and near to support of 17600 unless it broke decisively.  

We have seen sharp up and down in recent days. 

Be careful 

Happy and profitable trading. 

NIFTY 28 SEPTEMBER 2021 : We are on most crucial day for continuation of rally. 18000 looks phychological.

 

Good morning friends, 

At the time when it was looking all set to get a top, Nifty saved from lower levels. We got a fairly ok kind of close. 

Nifty closing at 17850 levels which is leaving people confused again. I took a fresh look on chart and feeling that as long as Nifty is staying above 17800-17750 levels, it may not be easy for any pullback. Hence, it may be hard to talk for top. 

I am not giving my trading view for today. I prefer to watch only. For support, Nifty may be looking at 17800 and there is no resistance We can say 17900-17950-1800 but practically it has yet to confirm. Momentum is only driving force. 

Do not short low, around 17800 without breakout. Do not trade long at top around 17930 levels. 

happy Trading. 

NIFTY 27 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like NIFTY will open at 18000 levels. Can it invite some nervousness?

 

Good morning friends, 

It doesn't make sense to present any analysis as SGX Nifty is showing opening around 18000 levels which is nearly 150 points up. 

It is too much levels to say to stay long. Even if I try I may be scared to be on long side. Normally, Nifty used to experience correction around phycological figures. 

I plotted 17 DMA on above chart. Normally, market used to take support at these levels and used to correct whenever it goes too far from 17 DMA. 

With a gap up we will be at 550 points away from 17 DMA which should normally invite correction. 

Hence, I will not prefer to trade long today. 

This rally may soon come under gravity. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 23 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like uptrend remains intact even after fed tempering announcement.

 

Good morning friends, 

I was expecting this rebound and caution too. Fed has given its view for tempering and interest rate. You all must be knowing so far. I am here to give technical views and market dynamics. 

Somehow, it is looking to move up but up move will face troubles at top. Only question is that if it get trouble near 17800. 

I am not advising short by looking in to pattern. Today is derivative expiry and market is likely to go up and if downside comes that will be a surprise. 

I am not getting great conviction that we made a short term top. In pure technical term, as long as Nifty is staying above 17200, rise is likely to continue. 

Worse part is that whenever Nifty takes gap opening. It spoil majority of trade. Nifty can open around 17650 as indicated by Nifty then fresh long may not be possible. 

Happy Tradaing. 

NIFTY 22 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Now bounce to come on towards 17625. Volatility will be main feature.

 

Good morning Friends, 

Above is 15 minutes of Nifty. Do not be surprise by seeing pattern. I have a purpose of posting such chart as reversal is better appearing on above chart. You can notice that this reversal is coming after a reversal H&S pattern. 

Most of secular trend from bottom yesterday was outcome of above pattern. 

Big question, can this continue today?

For today: - Well, most logical target that is looking based on chart is 17625. 

Support is at 17440 and that's keep us mid way. So it is going to be volatile. Expect up and down but I will give edge to bulls. 

Short term outlook : - It is looking like this market came lower to go up in short term and hence 17792 may not be final top. Who knows if Nifty go around 19000 also before decisive top. I just do not want to think what can be stock valuation. I am not in the mood to invest as I am also scared on fundamental uncertainty. 

Happy Trading. 

Market may remains sidewise for few days

NIFTY 21 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Only predictable factor is volatility. Support 17200 - Resistance - 17450- 17500

 

Good morning friends, 

It was real shaky day yesterday and Nifty slipped from higher levels. Technical charts are showing signs of trouble but it still has to break key support of 17200. 

17792 is a short term top. World is eyeing on china trouble and US fed tempering. Fine, I do not prefer to watch news flow but that's concerning. 

As per the charts are concern we can sense a test of 17200 levels sooner or later. 

We are two day away from derivative expiry. This can add spice in volatility. 

Let us see how market react at higher levels. Remember, Nifty goes in green yesterday and then slipped. It was a tremendous day. So, why it can't repeat today. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 20 SEPTEMBER 2021 : So 17792 NIFTY - this may be the top for the time begin.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I have already expressed a view that correct may not come with pause. Correction will come with quick and big three four candles. 

It is looking like Nifty is going to be behave in same way. If you remember, when Nifty came at 17440, it failed to make big red candle. 

This is the time when we saw big red candle. So what's for the day?

One thing is for sure that we can see extreme volatility with negative biasing. Nifty can come near 17450 and if breaks then 17260. 

If retailer get panic then we can see panica fall also. Sharp rally used to get follow up as panic fall. Well, and this rally was too sharp to believe. Panic bottom based on Elliott wave can be 17000 > 16700>15900.

Short term view - Take a note - 17792 is the top for time being. Once this fall is over then once gain it can pick momentum to form double top. Fine, bottom will not come too early. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 17 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty is ready for another GAP UP backed by BANK NIFTY which is backed by GoI announcement on bad banks.

 

Good morning friends, 

You must have heard the news. If not then this is here. 

The Union Cabinet on September 16 approved a government guarantee of up to Rs 30,600 crore for security receipts to be issued by National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL). Security receipts represent an undivided right or interest in a financial asset. Typically, asset reconstruction companies or a bad bank buy distressed assets paying 15 percent cash and the balance 85 percent in security receipts.

Addressing a press conference, the FM said, "We are also setting up an India Debt Resolution Company Ltd to manage the Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). In this company, public sector banks (PSBs) and state-owned financial institutions will own 49% stake." She added that private sector banks will also hold a stake.

Fine, this will give gap up for BANKNIFTY for sure. Ethically, I do not like such steps by government. Bad business should not be compensated by tax payer's money. 

Well, what's the key for today then?

17700 is definitely coming. It is going to be another all time high and definitely the unexpected levels by many all time bulls. 

So far, so quick and so big. Too to good to believe and too sharp. Its scary rise. 

Not advising long, not advising short either. 

Today is wait and watch day. 

Big question, when will the market fall?

"The day least people will expect about it." Take a note, if fall comes, it will wipe out 800-1000 points in quick time when ever it come (means in 4-5 candles). It does not mean it is coming today or tomorrow. Neither I am recommending shorts. I am giving a warning prospect for bulls. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 16 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like NIFTY will never ever correct. Can weekly expiry be spoilsport?

 

Good morning friends, 

First of all, it is looking like Nifty will never correct. Look at above chart pattern on daily chart. It has a flag pattern and breakout. This is a kind of pattern which has a history of denying correction. Even if correct comes it will not noticeable enough. 

Look at magnitude of rally. So far, we witness rally of 2000 points in on go. It has started from 15500 from 28 July. So in just 1.5 months it came at 17500. 

More than joy, it looks scary now. 

Option data is just not greatly in favour of such rally but every technical charts sought for Buy - Buy - Buy. 

Now, trader has take a call what to listen. Risk reward is alarming. It is mainly new investors money which run even with this risk. This can be only propelling force. 

Someday Some time market will come under gravity and it will deny all technical indictor for fall. 

I just prefer to stay out and watch it from outside rather than participating. 

What's for the day?

Resistance - 17600 (Based on option data, due to expiry)

Support - 17450 (Based on charting and option data)

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 15 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Outcome of consolidation is required to know to trade next move. Resistance - 17430-17440

 Good morning Friends, 

Yesterday it opened higher and then gave up from higher levels. Well, that is not important. What is happening now is more important. US market slipped over 300 points but SGX Nifty has denied everything and looking for some higher opening. 

That's jittery. 

Above is hourly chart. It is showing the formation of double top and double bottom so far. The range between 17440 to 17260 may remain indecisive to trade. 

What's technical charts are saying for the day?

It was looking for down till yesterday's close. We should have seen levels of 17330-17300 at least but I am not able to figure out after gap up. It should not go beyond 17430 levels. 

My view remains same. Resistance @ 17430-17440 and then a slip from high. 

If able condition does not full fill then I will not trade. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 14 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty likely to open higher but caution needed near 17430 levels.

 

Good Morning friends, 

Nifty saw a good dip yesterday in first half. It took support near 17280 with a pin point low at 17270 levels and then rebound. Now, Nifty is like to take a gap up opening as I can see SGX Nifty right now. 

Well, I am firm on my view that Nifty is very near to come. It may here and there from current levels but I cannot able to point the levels yet. 

Near to 17430, it may not be wise to trade long unless we get a strong to very strong breakout. Technical support will be at 17360-17350 levels after opening. 

One must note down that key support is still at 17280-17270 levels. This can make market too volatile if it starts coming down from resistance which is likely to happen. 

If my trading strategy of expecting weakness at high does not work then I may not opt to trade. 

Lastly, it shouldn't be compulsion to trade daily. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 13 SEPTEMBER 2021 : This is most crucial week of current upside. CAUTION NEEDED.

 Good morning friends, 

A big question that is running in everybody's mind is, "When will correction come?" It doesn't matter weather you are bull or bear but this is a genuine question to ask. 

The way I am reading the chart, we may see a possibility of correction sooner. It may come by this week or next week or week after but it is a over due correction and market dynamics will force market for a correction. 

For today's trading, I picked two important resistance, 

Resistance 1 = 17380, 

Resistance 2 = 17440.

Crucial supports are as follows

Support 1 = 17280

Support 2 = 17230

I favour bears today. Nifty is likely to hit the support zone but market nature will be volatile to extremely volatile. 

Do improvisation during trading hours. 

Happy trading  

NIFTY 09 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Weekly expiry will add only spice to volatility. Key point 17280.

 Good morning friends, 

Today is weekly expiry day. Once again, it is going to play its role with both side swings with volatility and that volatility is opportunity. Opportunity to make money and equally if you wrong it will be opportunity to loose money. So, handle this volatility with extreme care. 

I quoted 17280 as support yesterday, please check yesterday's low. It hit 17280 and gave a dead cat bounce of nearly 100 points. 

What's for today?

Well, opening may be soft today which is definitely going to happen first time in past many days. There is no big logic. I am just watching SGX Nifty. 

After opening market may try to give some push by bulls power but that may not last longer. Eventually, 17280 may be under test again. 

Now, key point of trading will come at 17280. Will it make or break?

To me it is looking like a over all negative day by close. 

Now a big question which most people asked me.

Will market ever break 17000?

Fine, dear friends, believe me this market will not only break 17000 but also 16000 but that doesn't mean that you short today or tomorrow. Market used to carry over valuation for long time. When it correct it self, it will correct in brutal manner. It is your duty to save your money. This is what market is all about. 

I used to take day by day progress. In recent days I saved my self and many by not shorting or stopping others from shorting. 

Long is not my choice at these valuation. 

Happy Ganeshchaturdashi in Advance to you and your family members. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 08 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Near Weekly expiry day will give a day with full of swings. Band - 17436 to 17280.

 

Good morning friends, 

We saw Nifty again topping at 17430 resistance levels. To be precise, high was at 17436 levels which as a result of pull back after initial fall. This is remarkable that it hit another new life time high yesterday but hardly noticed. 

Yesterday's move has confirmed that 17430- 17436 is decisive resistance. As long as it is not making another life time high, this market will be under threat of profit taking. 

What's key for the day?

Tomorrow is derivative expiry. This can be possible spoil sport for either bear or bulls or may be both. I am expecting a day with full of intraday swings. On higher side 17430 may also be again under test while on lower side, it can it may test 17300-17280 support band. 

For investment, I feel terrible looking valuations. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY 07 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty should now go in pause mode. 17430 will be decisive resistance.

 Good morning Friends, 

So the dream run continues on Nifty. Well, but now we can expect Nifty likely to take breather. I see 17430 as immediate resistance. One thing is clear that above 17430, it can hit 17500 levels too. 

What is the possibility of price correction?

Fine, it is not easy to make a perfect timing. So far, there is no single technical indication of correction. Only thing that I can say is that it is heavily over bought. 

When will it correct?

Sooner but I cannot suggest any timing. So far, it looks like even a negative close is difficult. 

One thing is clear, correction will not come with warning sign. 

It will come all of sudden, when ever comes. 

Support for the day is 17330, below which .... can it really fall without recovery?

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 06 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty may be near short term top. It may be here and there. Confirmation awaited.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Nifty zoomed above 17300 +. It is easy to say that market is in full momentum but technical indicators are running with huge divergence. I plotted 20 DMA in above daily chart. You can observe that it is running with wild gap. Normally, price follow moving average sooner or later. 

Question is, is this market running normal? It is running with too sharp rise. Perhaps something which no one has ever saw. 

I am still not short but it seems top may come by this week itself. It is not wise to buy anything at this kind of valuation. 

For trading, there is still no point to short. If you buy then also you may be in fear. 

I am just extending my holiday. After initial rise, market may give up its gain today. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 03 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Rise to continue for 17300. If fall comes, that will be surprise.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I was not expecting this kind of derivative expiry. I was expecting volatile down but it was volatile up. Above is daily chart. Charts saying 100+ point of fresh up move. 

Well, the last 100 points run came too sharp to believe. I find my self fortunate that I am not dealing from past few days. I am preventing myself from being trap at top.  

In past more than a year, many retail investors has entered in to the market and it seems that market hold due to their buying. Do you know that retails participation is highest in trading volume. 

Valuation is sky high. get rid of temptation of two three months gain and comes out from investment. Sooner or later, it will end up ugly. 

Fine, let us talk about today, 

I would say, trend remains bullish and Nifty can able to absorb any initial fall if comes. Nifty may challenge 17300 levels. 

Candle patterns are bullish. If fall comes, it will be a surprise. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 01 SEPT 2021 : Better than expected GDP data. Event done, be careful now.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

This is called euphoric run!!!

Is it fair run or unfair, that's definitely a different question and being a market participant, it's just not the point to think. If it is unfair run then market will itself correct it some time. 

Let us back to technical, 

The ease with which it has crossed above 17000 and closed above 17100, looks like nothing can stop it. I am going to read any indicator. 

It's now purely a momentum driven market where correction looks impossible. Do you know that charts never gave even a small short signal in past few days. Not even on 15 minutes charts. So, momentum is that much stronger. 

I am clueless how will it end. It is just reminding me December 2007. I am in money saving mode. I do not want to enter on either side. 

Valuations are expensive. 

For brave bulls, you have reasons to believe for 17200-17300. With the same reason why can't I say 18000 - 19000 even. (Please note, I am not claiming any figure, just asking). 

If money is the only criteria to buy then it's better to be safe. 

I am stopping shorting from past many days. Just a simple advise, unless market give a big red candle, don't short.

Don't even try to hunt for top to short. 

Happy Trading, I am again on holiday mode 

 

NIFTY 31 AUGUST 2021 : Strong support @ 16700 now. Market to go on breather mode.

 Good Morning Friends, 

What a and really what a rise. Unbelievable. I am sure you would not have burnt your money by shorting. Fine, that was my aim. 

It was a tempting levels for bears. Well, what's next?

Fine, historically, whenever market used to get this kind of sharp rise through out the month then it used to correct on very next Tuesday after expiry. Today is that Tuesday. 

Hence, I have point to consider as day of correction. 

I definitely do not mean by anything close to say as trend reversal. It will be too early to say. I want to watch the day. Charts has a strong message for us that 16700 is a very very strong support. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 30 AUGUST 2021 : Another Monday's GAP UP in line. Do not attempt shorting new all time high.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

In the last trading session, Nifty again took a sharp recovery from a pin point fall of morning hours. That's the important characteristic for now. 

We are going to see another gap up backed by strong rise in US market. SGX Nifty is giving a hint for gap up of nearly 100 points. 

BIG QUESTION - GAP up ke baad kya karen?

Well, in my view we cannot do much after such gap up. Traders must save their money. Do not short this market unnecessarily. You will only end of with frustrating loss. Never ever think to short a market which is constantly making new high. Do not look at fundamentals or any logic to support shorting at these kind of scenario. I am feeling like 2007. 

Important levels are - 16600-16570 as key support. As long as Nifty is above 16100, this market can witness rise only. 

Shall we talk about 17000 on Nifty???????

Prefer to be spectator, don't be player now. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 27 AUGUST 2021 : Do not short until sell signal confirmed. Key support = 16600

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It was a resilient expiry. Isn't it? 

Traders were expecting fall but it didn't came. I was also ready for short but I again withdraw my decision and I may opt waiting for next week. 

Above it an hourly chart and momentum indicator are close to give sell but signal has not formed yet. Sooner or later it will come. 

I have a threshold of 16600 which was quoted yesterday also. Nifty took turn from that point itself. 

Even for today, if Nifty sustain below 16600 then we can expect profit taking. 

TAKE A CAUTION, DO NOT ADD SHORT TILL SIGNAL GET confirmed. Any market which run near all time high, may not give up so easily. 

Don't put your head why the hell it is not falling. Market never care reasons. 

Looks like a possible reason is disinvestment plan by GoI. Market always like such disinvestment plan. Hence, market may be refusing to fall. Well, I am not 100% sure. It is just a view which I am giving based on history. 

WAIT - WATCH - ENJOY and then TRADE. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 26 AUGUST 2021 : Looks like it has double top pattern at 16702 levels. CAUTION needed due to expiry.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I have already shown you the hourly chart yesterday and above it updated hourly chart as per yesterday's closing. Few important point to observe is as follow - 

1. Divergence on RSI and MACD on hourly chart. It may be effective just below 16600 levels itself. 

2. Formation of double top at 16702 which is all time high. It is confirming the resistance at all time high. 

If things goes the way it is looking on technical chart then things are looking for an ugly expiry. I have a disclosure that I have no position on any stock. 

I am very much willing to add short if I get some confirmatory signal. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 25 AUGUST 2021 : Nifty to retest all time high. Do not attempt easy shorting.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Market run with full of surprises in favour of bulls. I am happy to avoid this market. I cannot say it is tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Its easily in favour of bulls and crushed bears. 

Above is hourly chart of Nifty and one can easily observe huge divergence of MACD and RSI. So now, technical may not support this rally too much. 

Price action is strongly and very strongly in support of rally. This is enough to stop shorting. Remember, momentum is hugely in favour of bulls and this type of momentum can give any levels. 

Doesn't matter, I am still in holiday mode. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 24 AUGUST 2021 : Mid cap and small cap indices are on warning note. Maintain distance from market.

 

Good morning Friends, 

Above is hourly chart on Nifty. First of all, it may show you the development of H&S pattern on hourly chart. Well, being bullish one can ignore this as it is above support of 16400-16370 levels. 

One thing that you cannot ignore is the under performance of mid cap and small cap indices. Even yesterday mid cap 50 index took fresh dip of more than 2%. 

That's alarming. 

I am not claiming fall today or tomorrow but fall may be unavoidable in near future. 

Maintain distance from market, it can burn money. This under performance is running from past one months. 

It is the time to pull money from market. Take a note, most fall used to come from extreme of optimism, just like now. 

As per technical is concern, I am not favour to short but maintaining holiday from market. 

Sit with cash and wait for opportunity. 

Happy Trading,