You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 01
April 2013: -
On 28 March
2013, FII bought INR 573.87 crs and DII sold INR 346.12 crs.
I was
expecting one bounce from 200 DMA which came on expiry day. It was largely
backed by short covering. We got some shocking data aftermarket hours.
CAD, which
is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, widened from
5.4 per cent in Q2 (July- September) to a record high of 6.7 per cent of the
GDP in Q3 of 2012-13 fiscal, driven mainly by large trade deficit.
Indian market
may choose its way to react with this figure. It is alarming and bad figures
for our market. I like to remind you about finance ministers comment which came
before budget about CAD. Reality is far away from his expectations. Reactions might
come every after recent sharp selloff.
Next
things that we need to give importance are the rising tension between US and N.
Korea. I do not think that world is on the verge of war but it is creating
unnecessary noise.
Voice coming
from Euro zone is also not good. Depositors are losing as big as 60% of their
money. Italy is going under the fear of re-election.
If there
is any place in the world where bulls are comfortable then it is just USA. Dow
Jones and S&P 500 moved higher again.
Before seeing
CAD data, I was expecting some more pull back. If you look that given chart, it
seems that now we are in short term forth wave. It can turn choppy for few
trading sessions. We have fair chance of trading in 100-150 points right now.
Surprise
pack will be the development on political fronts. No one can able to understand
Indian politics more than politicians themselves.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – I have quoted on
Thursday that my charts are hinting me for 5700 levels. It moved higher backed
by strong short covering. SGX Nifty is hinting for flat start but it may turn
choppy after opening minutes. Fair technical moves suggest that if it manages
to spend time above 5735 then you can expect a move towards 5760-5770. As of
now, I am planning to short this market at higher levels again. Nifty is
changing its composition today and it is better to see the impact.
S&P
500
– It has touching even 1570. It was well designed algo trading which has pulled
American market in last hour of trading. Is this chart really following
technical direction? Perhaps not. It is looking like it is travelling on
gravity free space. It is not easy to make any strategy but I am still saying
that a big correction is coming head. It may take time before start but whenever
it starts it will shock you. I am not saying for 2-3% correction. I am saying
for 10-15% correction coming. I am still breaking my head by thinking about the
timing for the start of this correction.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
