You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 12 June 2014: -
On 10 June 2014, FII Bought INR 682.26 crs and DII Sold INR 1215.47
crs
It was already quoted for yesterday that we may have a top
formation from 7680 or 7700 or 7720. We eventually got the top at 7700 levels. After
hitting a top at 7700 on dot we saw intraday dip. In my view, Nifty is still
above threshold of 7560 levels. As long as it is above 7560 we can expect this
support to work. Trend will reverse once it break below 7560 which is likely to
happen in coming days.
I consider that 7570-7560 zone will play a decisive role for
trend reversal. What I mean to say is that only if we close below 7560 then
only we can say that trend is reversing for next wave. Equally, it does not
mean for end of rally as long term trend remains intact and Nifty has potential
to hit 8000 levels.
So far, what I see is that Nifty can come in the range of
7400 to 7300 and then only a next up move will start near budget session. Well,
one need to remember that next wave of rally will depend on budget take. We have
IIP data coming this evening. Market will keep its eye on monsoon progress
which is not yet good. It is important to note that most important short term booster
decision for economy is ‘cut in bank rate’. This factor largely depends on how
monsoon progress.
For today’s trading technical support will be at 7590 and
then at 7560 levels. Remember, a reversal point for this rally will be at 7560.
It should come in a day or two. First sign of this kind of profit taking will
be if small cap and mid cap indices shows relative weakness than Nifty. Rise
will face resistance at 7680 < 7700 < 7720 levels.
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Strategy for Nifty June
future – Nifty June
future may open near 7620 levels as suggested by SGX Nifty. Technical charts
are suggesting for support at 7600 levels after opening. If it breaks and
sustain below 7600 then we can see immediate drag of 40-50 points. On higher
side 7670 and 7715 will act as tough resistance. I still believe that Elliott
wave reversal point on Nifty June future will be 7570 levels. Close below 7570
will give big dip.
S&P 500 (USA) – We have higher possibility that
1956 will remain a top. I still feel the need of close below 1930 to say for confirmation
about upcoming dip. Let me clear it little more – a dip if starts from 1956
will have a target at 1800-1770 zone. Rest can be easily concluded. Better short
signal will emerge at close below 1930. Let us see, it can come in a day or
two.
