You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 12 May 2014: -
On 09 May 2014, FII Bought INR 1278.68 crs and DII Sold INR
75.30 crs
Finally, after 50% retrenchment we saw a rebound which comes
with stronger than expected intensity. I nearly gained over 200 points but I still
prefer to hold. I have already explained last week that near to poll result
date we will see ‘a rally of optimism’. What has happened on Friday was a part
of it. Cross above 6880 on Nifty will drive it higher and higher. Do not try to
be extra brave to short.
I have quoted 254 for BJP on Friday and I have explained in
my weekend article with complete details. If I am right then NDA will surely
come with comfortable majority. This can push market higher towards 7000 marks.
Today’s trading session will also go with optimism. Technical charts are
suggesting that Nifty can hit in the zone of 6950 to 7000 marks if it stay
above 6880.
It does not matter if this happens today or tomorrow but
scope is surely open. Best thing that market can do now is that it will move
above 6880 and force each short to cover in panic. If this happens then rally
could be larger and quicker. Rally based on ‘Optimism’ should continue until either
it see end of optimism or after desired final result on event.
Technical charts are still suggesting for crucial support at 6830
to 6800 levels. On higher side, it needs to sustain above 6880 to register
further gain which can be very impressive. If it breaks 6800 on lower side then
I will be worried a little. So far, it looks like it will break 6880 on higher
side and try to come in the striking range of 7000 levels.
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Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is showing for
positive start even after massive gain on Friday. Positive momentum is expected
to continue. I hope that it will cross another crucial threshold which is at
6925. Cross over of 6925 will add 50-75 points on higher side before exit poll
hit this evening. In worse case, it will be cautiously silent before event but
such chance is less to happen. Even if this happens then also it will give up
partly from higher levels only.
S&P 500 (USA) – Even on Friday I have quoted for the
support at 50 DMA. We saw intraday low exactly at 1867 which was in striking
distance from 50 DMA which is at 1865. We saw good rebound in second half, this
drive a fact that bulls are still trying. Now, all-time high is at 1899 and 50
DMA is at 1865. Difference is just 2% now. It is showing the time based
consolidation. Before turning weak we may have some steam left for bulls. It may
try to break on higher side before going lower. My conviction is turning less
for new all-time high now. Break below 50 DMA will invite bears to hit for “May
month sell off”.
