To
get a direction in wave ‘B’ or ‘C’, we need to break the range of 5279 to 5209
on either side. Do not expect good reaction about half hearted reforms.
Today’s
outlook: -
Nifty
has moved in 25 points of range in the last trading session with a fall in many
banking stocks. Now president poll has passed and cabinet approve fewer
important measures to boost up economy. Was that sufficient enough? Very
clearly, no. We must expect something bigger. Will those come? I am not very
sure. There are talks of FDI in retain by august 15.
Waves
are suggesting for the continuation of these choppy days. We need to either
stand above 5279 or below 5209 to get any better direction.
For
today also,
Nifty
will have resistance @ 5260 < 5279. IN the lower side we can expect support
at 5230 > 5209. I have no great sense as of now for market moving higher.
Best
technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average –
Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June
2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from
5 June 2012itself.
Wave
development: -
I am
revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked
end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194
(raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it
was saving.
Take
another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave
5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.
Consider
first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that
5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.
Wave
5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was
already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have
two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of
wave 2, i.e. 5409.
So
you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory
suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about
5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in
my studies.
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Thanks
& Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
Mail
id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile
number – 09893369889
