You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25
March 2013: -
On 22 March
2013, FII sold INR 14.20 crs and DII sold INR 135.57 crs.
We are on
last week of this financial year. We have a short weak and derivative expiry
too. Our market tried to bounce on Friday but give up in last few minutes of
trade. Eventually, FII and DII both emerged as net seller.
Now, let
us talk about Cyprus. Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders
on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its
second largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including
wealthy Russians.
I have
said this at the time of Greece deal also and repeating this time also. The way
ECB is solving a problem it is itself opening door for the next problem. Have we
ever passed even single quarter with a problem in euro zone? This union is the
second name of headache. They will spend their life in solving this kind of
crisis and bailout rather than achieving anything. It is designed to play with
money. Richer will earn and poor people will trash out. I am strongly warning
that this kind of steps can result as “mass anger bust” anytime in euro zone. Do
not invite gentleman on the read.
Cyprus was
an ‘experiment lab’ and very sooner you will hear about Spain and Italy.
Obvious question
is about the impact on Indian market. A gap up is a very simple expectation but
Indian market may give up from higher levels again the way it did on Friday
also. I was expecting about but worse part is that those bounce get sold on
intraday trade itself. I am expecting at least one bounce from near to 200 DMA
which is now at 5618 before finally breaking this. I am not very optimistic
after gap up.
There are
many stocks in Indian market where media people are trying to convince you to
buy. Recent example was RCOM. Do not enter in such trap. Mid cap and small cap
fall is far away from over. This is alarming phase of Indian market where index
is not doing the damage like market.
Strategy
for Nifty March future – I have already
expressed my views for recovery on Friday during my ‘intraday updates’. At least one bounce deserve from current
levels. Nifty March Future is looking like to open at 5690. Technical charts
are suggesting for a move towards 5726 once it stand above 5692. I am not very
sure that it can be possible without short covering. My strategy will be to
trade long but I need a chance to buy at low. Will I get after gap up?
Strongest bear of the world is in India itself.
S&P
500
– It is still at high and making one day up-next day down structure. You do not
need to look at indices future right now after Cyprus deal. US markets were
already sensing it coming. All technical indicators are saying for something to
go wrong at current levels. It has formed a range of 1538 to 1558 (~1564). Rising
VIX is showing that now fear is rising. I can still say that it is just a
matter of time for this fear to convert in to selling. It is very tough to say
about exact time but a big disappointing fall coming.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
