You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
12 January 2017: -
On 11 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 627.30 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1116.15 Crs
I failed to see this kind of rise. I was expecting top around 8250 or
below but so far it has extended by nearly 2%. It has surpassed 38.20%
Fibonacci retracement. Now the next meaningful resistance is at 8430. Will this
resistance turn to be a top? Let us see we will get the answer today. This rise
is against many odds. We are near to result season and we are seeing a rise
while I was expecting a nervous sell off.
For today’s trading we can expect some encouraging opening again as it
has closed yesterday on high point of the day. Technical resistance is at 8430.
Rise is rise and we must accept this. I still advise strong caution. Take a
note that most top used to come with excessive optimism something like what is
happening right now in the market. These may be euphoric top.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty January
future – It took out 8300 and in a gap up opening and came very near to
8400. I lost money in my short deals which I booked after gap up. Now, I on buy
side on put option. I am definitely not willing to trade long as I am almost
sure that rise has high chance to be proven as trap.
BANK NIFTY January future –
It is definitely the banking index which has given a great boost to the market.
It does not matter what is happening on fundamental front technical charts are
extremely over bought. It suddenly went up after a phase of underperformance. It
may be a reflection of upcoming number. Profit taking deserves at this point of
time. I have levels on it as of now. May be 19000 should not come so easily. I have
no trade on this index so far in this month.
