Monday 10 April 2017

10 April 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid long unless it gives strong signs of short covering. Momentum may miss again.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

10 April 2017: -
On 07 April 2017: FII Net Sold – 262.37 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 414.94 Crs
Well, 9273 is the high so far for Nifty and since then we are unable to see upward momentum. In true sense momentum is missing. Right now, global market cannot be at least named as weak. Experiencing from past many days, we can conclude for a dull session today. It is still advisable to restrict trading activity in this kind of market condition. It is better to go on stock specific moves rather than index.
9300 levels on Nifty is going to be levels which can face tougher resistance. On other hand we have trading support at 9000 levels only. So practically at 9200 points we are on bad risk – reward ratio for long trades. Hence, I have point to avoid long unless I see some great sense of short covering based rise.
For today’s session, I am expecting market to open on flat note. Technical has not given many sign of weakness yet but some momentum indicators are suggesting that negative trades or one can say a pullback may come. Will this pullback be impressive? I have doubt.
I am concentrating on cement and steel stocks.
Caution note is clear – first one has to watch for weakness on small cap and mid cap indices. Before top, there may be the days where mid cap and small cap indices will be negative and bluechip index will maintain flat to positive note. I will look on small cap and mid cap index to compare relative under performance.
Strategy for Nifty April future – Nifty April future looks to open around 9200 levels. Well, I am still not saying to trade short above 9200. If this can sustain below 9200 then only I can think to trade short and also if that’s suits in momentum too. If market sustain higher and give me any sign of short covering then my choice will be a definitely long trade which is not looking easier right now.

BANK NIFTY April future – BANK NIFTY should not be touched now as long as it is trading below 21700 levels. Chances are higher that I will not prefer to trade index. It has crucial threshold at 21000 levels which is still nearly 2% away. It is suggesting that market is trading with unfavourable risk – reward ratio. Can it sustain up? I doubt.