Monday, 22 December 2014
22 December 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect trading support @ 8200 and @ 8150. Should we buy low or should we short top? A trendy rise will face many hurdle.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 22 December 2014: -
On 19 December 2014, FII Sold INR 668.85 crs and DII Bought
INR 622.77 crs
So far, it is a great recovery. Moving forward, we can see
some more extension of this recovery with correction coming in timely manner. We
are in derivative expiry week and that makes me to feel some odd hurdle in
recovery. Recovery comes with 7.70% dip from all –time high. Usual correction
in trending direction used to come with magnitude of 8% or 11%. This is 8% kind
of dip hence, prime trend has saved.
Sooner or later, I feel that it will go to make a 11%
correction levels too but right now it is for up. When we see beginning of
correction, we will take a count for it. Based on charting development, I am
expecting immediate support at 8180 to 8150 levels.
Based on Elliott wave theory, first target on recovery is at
8215 and next target is at 8295 levels. Cross over of 8295 should attract more rises.
This rise may be rapid in nature but effect may be neutralized due to
derivative expiry where weak long will see unwinding.
For today’s trading session, we can see flat opening with
immediate support emerging at 8215 to 8200 of Nifty. Break below 8200 will
invite a trading price correction up to 8160-8150 levels but this situation may
come as odd result. I opt to buy a dip for better rise on strength. It depends
on intraday signals.
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Strategy for Nifty December
future – I expect a
flat opening. We can assume that this is the levels where weak bulls will throw
their stocks. We are near to expiry and hence market may be volatile on both sides.
On Friday we were short on high point. For today, either we opt to be short
near top or long from low. Now, high-low cannot be defined exactly. I expect a
top point to be either near 8180 or after a breakout rally. Technical support
comes at 8220 to 8200 or more lower.
S&P 500 (USA) – Another great rally in US market
and we are in Christmas week. Usually, this is known has bullish week. S&P
is almost on the verge of breaking newer high after a dip correction. It is
looking like matter of time for this to enter in newer charting zone. Once it
break above 2081, we can see S&P going to 2145+ levels in few weeks’ time. I
have already quoted this target. I was also quoted that we will buy in
correction only. We got that with good opportunity to enter with long. Now, it
has ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern which can make January 2015 equally and truly bullish.
Buy post-Christmas correction if you missed.
NIFTY weekly analysis for 22 December’14 to 26 December’14
Elliott wave theory: It was fantastic week if one took
long from lower levels. We are in derivative expiry week. I split it into two
parts. First half should be bullish but it will attract selling from higher
levels. This is retrenchment of wave ‘a’ which should get sold at top to form a
top for wave ‘b’.
Market cycle: It has higher chance to misunderstand
above statement. Long term chart has not yet shown any weakness. Moving into New
Year, I am expecting this market to go higher. How much can it move? We have
yet to find the levels. So far, for this week it is bullish.
Technical indicators: It has turned neutral but it is
favouring a recover for this week. I am making my studies on different time
frame for RSI. 8300 for Nifty is a key for me which I am expecting to be
tested. Above 8300, it can see some impressive move.
Charting pattern: It has already recovered well from
the low of 7961. We can expect more recovery on global strength. Take a note
that above 2081 on S&P, it will be ‘inverse H&S’ breakout.
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