You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 12
April 2013: -
On 11 April
2013, FII bought INR 36.63 crs and DII bought INR 57.71 crs.
Indian market
was on the path of recovery even yesterday with wild movement in last 100
minutes. From past two trading sessions, last 100 minutes of trading turning
crucial. We have Infosys result today and opening with be driven by those.
Before that,
I have two importance points to add. First is the FII and DII numbers, both are
sluggish. It is giving a hint that there is no decisive money on the table. Another
important point is about INDIAVIX. When NIFTY has closed higher by 0.60%, VIX
should have closed down. In reality INDIAVIX has closed higher by 2.90% @ 16.97.
Above two
factors forced me to conclude that recovery can stop any moment now. I have
already given 5610 as resistance which was respected well yesterday. There are
better hopes for Infosys earning numbers. Somehow, it seems that those will be
neutralized.
Market might
eagerly react on IIP and WPI data too which are scheduled to come today. Traditionally,
IIP may goes in negative again. I strongly believe that we can expect only base
effect based improvement on IIP numbers as there are no efforts to improve
those. We are far away from the period of base effect.
My technical
charts are suggesting me for resistance at 5610 and further rise depends on the
cross of that. Crossover of 5610 can give 5650-5680. In the down side, we have
meaningful support only at 5540-5530 zone.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – I have already
said that 5626-5630 is also a meaningful resistance. We have seen high at 5617
then a fall. It was so simple to write but equally tougher to trade. There will
be technical support at 5540 levels only. If one is thinking to trade long then
one has to be very careful. Technical charts are not stable yet. Volatility may
be even worse now. We have lots of things to react as well it is Friday too.
S&P
500
– ‘Ben Guarantee’ continues and it has closed in green again with marginal
distance from 1600. US SPX VIX was also high yesterday. How can that happen
that S&P and VIX both are higher with same extent. Something is not right. Practically,
there is NO BAD NEWS in USA. It is looking like they got the perfect idea
condition and most efficient market. Is it possible? Now 20 EMA is at 1562,
looks too far to come. This is the phase where one can just wait as there is
nothing to act.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
