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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 03
September 2013: -
On 02
September 2013, FII Bought INR 475.92 crs and DII Sold INR 285.81 crs
In past
four trading sessions, we saw rise of more than 430 points from recent low on
Nifty. Today is fifth day. We may see a possible pause now. We have seen
continued buying in metal stocks. I have already said many times in past that
this market may for a short term panic bottom. We saw that on 5118. Within very
short time value stocks jumped by more than 10-15 %. Few examples are Reliance,
Tata Steel etc.
After market
hours, I heard about some great idea to lower fuel consumption. If a government
run by an economist throws idea for shutting petrol pump at night then nothing
can be wilder than this. Take a note that India is amongst lowest on energy
consumption per person. I have forecasted for 4-5% GDP in the year 2010 itself.
it came in reality in just 3 years. If policy makers do not improve then situation
can turn even worse. Fuel consumption is an indicator of economic activity too.
Lower this may give us threat of GDP growth as low as 2%.
Now, let
us come back to NIFTY. I was already betting on recovery and I am still
retaining my views. I am expecting further extension on rise. Nifty has crossed
5520-5540 threshold range for further trigger. There is a possibility of some
tiredness after 430 points of recovery but momentum is still stronger. I was
already considering recent few week of fall as buy in dip. I am sure that now
even bears will use this market to buy in dip.
We may see
rise towards 50 DMA but real challenge to cross the ‘death crossover’. I am
expecting a flat start and some choppiness or profit taking may come as today
is fifth day. I am expecting that that profit taking will also be bought.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is
trading flat. It may try to give a sense of silence. Charts are suggesting for
support at 5520-5500 levels. It may try to come near to 5500 also but recovery
is very likely even after any dip. I do not think that there is any threat as
long as it is staying above 5460 levels. Bounce depends on many sectors and
Banking stocks may try to revive.
S&P
500
– As I said as long as 1624-1618 holds
we should wait to take further trades on short side. It has passed three days
and not gave any signal. My study still holds that as long as 1624-1618 holds,
S&P 500 will try to accumulate of distribute for some time. I can say that
it has possibility of breaking lower below 1600 but concrete sell will generate
below 1624-1618 only. Can it rebound? Somehow it is giving a feeling that rise
will sold out. Prefer shorting if comes above 1660.
I still
believe that US will not attack Seria. It does not matter how much threat is
being issued by President.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
