You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
European boost has given ‘best of
its thrust’ to the global market and India
We have seen a completion of falling
wave a-b-c. I was expecting 5149 to come before any further up move but it
start rising from 5215. We must note that we have 70-80 points of gap up on
Friday. Shall we immediately start betting for fall? I feel that it will not be
the justice with charts. We may expect some rise or some consolidation.
I must mention that we have three
events scheduled in this week. One is inflation data, other is IIP data and the
next is FOMC meet. I must accept that our market as well as global market is
trying to be optimistic for each and every event and that’s one after another. I
need to be honest as I fail to understand this kind of market behavior although
I strongly believe that it cannot be good for market.
You can ask for the downside beak point.
I must highlight that break below 5309 will take out all those hopes that build
in past 2-3 days. Charts are suggesting that market will not be comfortable
even if it slip even below 5340 levels.
Coalgate scam – I have already quoted
‘coal’ as political fuel. Developments are already unfavorable and situation
can be worse in coming days. It is fair to say that this scam has taken out all
hopes of reforms. Are you still expecting those?
Wave development: -
On 30 August - Firstly, I have
quoted for resistance at 5449-5450. I have already said that this is ‘most
unreliable’ rise. You can ask for reason. Just a fair question, what was the
base of this rise? Just hope and blind hope. Now we in the final count down of
hopes for Indian, European and American market. I have said this in past and
repeating again that policy makers are playing with the fire of stock market.
They are just buying time from stock market. They will not act on their words.
Earlier in the week - Elliott waves
are turning very critical now. You can able to see that now every single wave
is contracting in nature. First rising wave started form 4531 has a life for 1100
points, and then next rising wave started from 4770 and has a life for 580
points. Next rising wave started from 5032 and has a life for 418 points
only.
Earlier in the month - I like to add
few more things for “reverse H&S”. Length of head = 5279 – 5032 = 247
points. Confirmation point will be one-third of head length i.e. 247/3 = (~)
83. It means 5279 + 83 = 5361. So we need to see the one-third confirmation
rule to bet for 5526. As it is visible on daily chart so we need to see this
close to close basis. (This is a “must know” concept).
Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27th
July 2012 .
As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is
going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up
wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above
chart. On 3rd August 2012 , we got a low of 5164.65 which
is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.
This is encouraging with few
challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous
wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be
most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with
charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are
still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will
be lesser compared to past few waves.
Charts are saying that if we manage
to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and
shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which
should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526.
Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,
Beginning point of wave = 5032.40
Wave 1 = 5246.35
Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times
of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65
Those who are bullish in their
nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.
Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be
updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com
(If you think that other readers
should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link
given below).
Read www.viecapital.com for stocks
views
Follow us on twitter a/c
'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital
Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile number – 09893369889
