You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
Nifty has saved 5630 marks again. It
has not even crossed 5700 marks while 5730 was the most meaningful resistance. Reliance
has delivered figures inline with expectation. Well, hopefully market will not
punish the stock. In another crucial event WPI number came little higher than
expected. I am not concluding anything about RBI’s upcoming monetary policy. Can
we expect rate cut based on those? May be not. I am still sensing for the room
for rise in inflation figures. Even if it does not go above 10% then also it
will be much higher and remains beyond comfort zones. I am crystal clear in my
views that inflation will move higher.
Wave theory suggests that levels of
5630 to 5730 will be very crucial. Now we have two ways for trades : -
One is, as long as 5630 levels hold
then we will see pullback towards 5730. Other way is, if it fails to cross
above 5730 then it will face selling at higher levels. Figures of 5630 and 5730
need to be on decisive basis.
Technical indicators are suggesting
that we are now on mid way. It is very clear that break levels has not came on
charting side. Momentum indicators are weak but not enough to suggest for big
fall yet. As 5630 holds so we need to believe that this market will have a room
to make a fresh up wave. Although it may not be so easy but charts are saying
for those kind of response.
What’s if 5730 crosses? We need to
believe that if Nifty successfully crosses 5730 then we need to believe for
higher target in the zone of 5780to 5800. I can equally conclude market will
not stop at those levels. It may make a fresh crossover to get a newer 52 week
high.
Alter sense, if we start trading
below 5630 then we may see it heading towards 5500 levels. I am sure that now
everyone is repeating this statement. Well, as it is most talked levels so be
carefully and apply this study on decisive basis.
S&P 500 – I have said in past
that if it fails to cross 1475 then it may remains a yearly top and I have
quoted for support at 1424. We must note that bounce from support is not very
unusual things. One bounce is coming but that may not last longer. Well, so far
it is the beginning of bounce in UA market. Right now it is looking like to
revisit the levels of 1460. It is still tough to conclude if that can be a
trade or not. If one wants then it can be.
Let us come back to some sectoral
performance. If indices have to rise then it cannot be possible without support
from banking stocks. For today, it looks like Reliance will add 1-2% higher
trades backed by results. So far from 5680, it is looking for cautious up as
long as 5630 hold. On higher side expectation can be for 5725-5730. We will get
a decisive crossover only after 5730.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
