You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 25 August 2016: -
On 24 August 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 39.28 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 129.18 Crs
I normally do not trade expiry day and today it turn special to avoid.
Nifty is forming narrowing wedge formation and this is definitely not a good
situation. Market used to take unpredictable turn in all such moment. Market will
face resistance at 8670-8700. In the lower side it will get support at
8600-8580. I strongly suggest avoiding such market.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open or flat
note. After that it has higher chance of trading flat. If things favours then
market can see a possible fall but this time I am giving possibility as 50-50
for bulls and bears each. If this market were looking for a fall then it should
have given fall by yesterday only but it has closed on high point. This is
showing that bulls are giving their best.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – We will see market opening above 8700 but I will not prefer to
trade today. It is equally true that in normal circumstances it is said to be
bullish but wedge formation is also alarming. Technical charts are suggesting
for support at 8650- 8640 levels but support is too far. On higher side
8750-8760 is still achievable.
BANK NIFTY – This index is convincing
me that we may have very limited rise on higher side even after breakout
situation it is not moving higher. Let us see how it trade today. My study and
levels remains same. Avoid present
breakout now for long. It has definitely not displaying the kind of strength
which I was expecting above 19200. Fine, as long as it is above 19200 I may not
opt shorting. Well, but below 19200 I will definitely think to short this very
seriously. Technically, 19600 may remain untested. We will see resistance
emerging at each higher level.
