You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 28 July 2016: -
On 27 July 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 404.69 Crs: DII Net Sold – INR – 152.47 Crs
Well, so we are on derivative expiry day and market may remain up and dull.
Market has given sign of correction but it never gave any follow up of trade on
correction. Technically, 8650+ levels may remain a tougher resistance before
hitting 8700 levels. I must say that market will be unpredictable on expiry
day. I feel that correction should come but that will come only if it can break
8570 kind of levels. Those levels are still far away.
I am not changing my view for today too. Levels remains same as of
yesterday.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on positive
note but it will face resistance at 8650 levels. In the lower side 8570-8560
should be support. We can expect some heavy resistance on higher side. It may
not find it easier to cross resistance of 8650. Well, it is derivative expiry
and one propelling force can destroy all resistance. This force can be
short-covering. Will it come? I do not know yet.
After looking to this structure and then way market has refused to
break below 8000 even in panic we can say that market is preparing something
big. This big think can be as big as 9000-9100 levels of Nifty. I see such great
possibility hence bears must be cautious.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
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Strategy for Nifty August
future – I prefer to stay away from trade in normal circumstances. I like
to see how it reacts after opening hours. If it fails to rise then a decisive
fall may come before expiry. I am extremely cautious before derivative expiry.
I must save my trades from any kind of short covering. No rally can be more
enjoying that short covering. If fall has to come then it can come below 8610
only.
BANK NIFTY – This turned as
laggard compared to blue chip index. This is my only worry point but I am still
optimistic. Good decisive cross over point is 19200. It has slipped again
before 19200 and my worry continues. Technical charts are saying to avoid this
index as long as it is below 19200. From near to this levels, this index is not
safe for bulls.
