You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 04
April 2013: -
On 03 April
2013, FII Sold INR 368.39 crs and DII bought INR 37.73 crs.
Now, I need
to note that FII has sold in cash market for two trading sessions in a row. Is this
alarming? I say, yes as this might be the first hint of change in ‘investment
cycle’. I said in the month of January that no matter what has happened in
history but FII has to lose money. Aren’t they losing now?
I have
already quoted yesterday for the resistance of 5775 to 5791. We have seen
silence in first half which gave enough opportunity to conclude and add short. I
was very confident for this kind of bigger falls in intraday but surely I was
expecting a move towards 5600. Only difference was the time frame.
It is
looking like we will get 30 – 40 points gap down. Two days back, I have
mentioned that market need to oscillate in the zone of 5735 (~5750) to 5640 (~
5600). Yesterday we were at higher side of band and today we are coming at lower
side of band. That’s interesting!!!
Well, when
market were rising for three in a row, I have warned you from taking long
position on beaten down mid cap stocks. Look at the price damage of last 60
minutes. It has washed out all two – three days of gain. Watch more sell off in
first half today. Believe me, fall has not done completely yet. Do not try to
catch falling knife. Do take a strong note that political situation in India is
heading towards mid-term poll. I am saying that it is giving hint that we are
heading towards mid-term poll but it may not come so soon. So, it will just try
to threat the market while actual event will come very very late ot may not
come.
Now, even
US market has initiated fall. We have yet to see the follow up selling. I do
not try to focus on reason of sell off as I am just following market technical.
I have already quoted that US Small cap 2000 was already falling.
Technical
charts are suggesting that we should come near to 5600 marks. If it breaks then
you can expect even 5548 levels. I hope you remember that I am betting on 5548
from the month of January itself. I am not saying that it will act as bottom
for market.
I got few
mails regarding mid cap long position and most has claimed that they bought
looking on TV. Watch TV and make investment portfolio. So simple, isn’t it?
Sorry to all, no one can help you.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – After shorting at
5740, I have nothing much to do as we may see 30-40 points gap down. It means
Nifty April Future will start somewhere near 5640. I will be cautious near
5630-5610 levels. On higher side 5691 to 5700 will act as stiff trading
resistance. More than Nifty future I will look for the Nifty spot 5600 which
will be ‘make or break’.
S&P
500
– So finally USA market has followed the basics that fall will come on small
cap first. I will look for follow up of fall for today if it comes. We need to
note that US small cap 2000 has lost nearly 1.70% even yesterday while S&P
500 slipped only by 1%. US SPX VIX gained over 6.50%. So far all look good for
fall. What I need is the break below 1545 levels. If it breaks 1545 then we can
expect rapid fall towards 1500. Are you worried about Indian Indices now? Yes,
impact will come and you will feel the heat.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
