You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 25 February
2013: -
On 22 February
2013, FII bought INR 280.30 crs and DII sold INR 351.98 crs.
It is giving
us a sense the intensity of FII money flow is slowing down. It is very hard to
predict any pin point reason. It might be the result of perhaps currency war. We
may see preferences in investment by global fund manager.
Market men
are curious to know about the outcome of Italian election. On other hand, there
is silent pessimism growing over budget. Do not think that people will come to
say those. One need to conclude it from the price and charts itself. The way
metal, auto and banking stocks are slipping we can say that something big will
comes in few days. So will budget disappoint the market?
Technical charts
are suggesting that Nifty will have stiff technical at 5880 to 5900 zone.
I said
about a possible H&S pattern emerging on Nifty daily chart earlier also and
repeating again. Those are very critical and threatening as well. Moreover,
Nifty starts trading near to 100 SMA which is just above 5830 now. How long can
this kind of support sustain?
Once it
breaks 5830 and sustain then we can expect 5800-5780 levels very sooner. Sooner
or later it has to happen. I do not have too many clues for why it will happen?
Opening for this week might play crucial role. I am still warning, do not try
to catch falling knife. It may not be a good idea. I am sensing that even long
term bulls are also puzzled.
Strategy
for Nifty February future – Nifty February
future may turn wild if it slips below 5830-5820 levels. Friday’s recovery in
US market might have saved us from gap down else it was supposed to come. It will
face stiff technical resistance at 5889 levels. As long as it is staying below
5889 we can just expect continuation of fall. Geopolitical and domestic cues
are still hinting that any recovery will have short life. Cross over of 5889
can give us move towards 5940-5950?
S&P
500
– It hit a low of 1495 last week and then recovered to move above 1508 levels. It
is impressive but not impressive enough to be bullish. Technical charts are
suggesting that it will fall again anytime. We can expect immediate 3- 4 % dip
if it start trading below 1500 marks. Technical shapes are still hinting that
bears are already in business and they will try to show full power this week. What
will come to drive those bigger corrections? Well, only time can answer.
