You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
It was firstly hope of reform that
took Nifty towards 5340 levels. When it died then it was hope of stimulus in Europe that saved market. Now we have Fed
meeting today and ECB tomorrow. These are assumed as the last one and it will dominate
the trend. Take a note that we are still directionless and living in full of uncertainty.
It will be known as most unreliable
rise if comes. It is true that charts are indicating for a move towards 5260
and then 5279 levels. It can also be concluded that 5190 will act as important
intraday support. Trend reversal support will be at 5150 levels only.
It is interesting to see what Fed
and ECB will do now. Germany
Wave development: -
First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343
(Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.
Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496
(Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)
Take another calculation, wave 1 =
4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1
or wave 3.
Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5
= 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as
tougher hurdle to cross.
Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70
to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)
76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3
= 5288, which was roughly the high point of previous day trade.
I like to add one more point. This
rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as
reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100
levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.
So you should look for 5343 as first
hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance
can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not
close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.
