Vie Capital: 9 May 2012

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

NIFTY: 10 May 2012: Nifty will get support at 4951 > 4930 > 4913 in dip now. Strength can be expected only on sustained trading above 5021.

When every single person on street start saying that market will fall then it must be the time to be cautious from shorting.

Where is the support? I must say that if you can derive any support with bigger wave in magnitude then those may workout well. Few such supports are 4951 and 4913.

Ratio analysis suggests that above two levels will be crucial. Let us see how those are developed. (I am giving description rather than imposing my levels on you).

4951 – This is 38.20% from 4531 or 61.80% from 5631 (of rise from 4531 to 5631).
4913 – It is derived from its first impulsive fall from 5631 to 5268. We have next top at 5499. Take 1.618 times of 5631-5268.
No market can run without correction. Correction comes for rise also and falls also. In case fall it is a must. It has seen that correction may miss for rise but never miss for fall.

In between, Nifty deserves a bounce but question remains same about magnitude and period. We will see a bounce but no bounce will sustain in coming days/weeks. Depending on the bounce I will join shorting again.

As of now, Nifty should comes near to 5020. Cross over of 5020 will push Nifty higher towards 5060. In best case we may expect levels of 5100. It will be an upwards trading correction. We will expect fall from those higher levels but not today. It is not only price which retraced, we have to consider time retrenchment.

Updating at 11 am : 5040 is acting as stiff resistance. Can be (5630-5171=459 pts / 5499-459=5040)

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

NIFTY 09May2012:Intraday update. Support @ 4951/ resistance@5022 (Crossover above 5022 will be decisive)

Nifty spot : currently quoting at 4990. We have already seen first rise from 4959 to 5016 which was of 47 points.

Higher risk requires higher caution. Now 'short' & 'sell' become very common words in the market so be cautious.

10 minutes intraday charts are suggesting that we have stiff trading resistance at 5022. If we see cross above those then we may see some more recovery.

One can trade long from lower side with small stop loss or wait for higher cross over.

I must add, daily charts are still bearish so one must not take any higher risk. There is nothing that I can suggest you that you can forward any long. Sooner or later we will see 4900-4880.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY: 09 May 2012: Nifty has broken 4986. Is it preparing for 4880 to 4850? No recovery can sustain now.

I have already suggested to short Nifty again from higher levels but I was not expecting that it will fail to cross even 50% levels which were at 5133. It remains untested and slipped horribly. I have already expressed caution in my intraday update.

Charts have changed a lot with close below 5000 marks. Although it came due to uncertain geopolitical development but chart do not know the reason. It only knows what is happening.

It is a 13^th wave breakout at 13^th week after hitting a high at 5630. Now on daily chart we have sandwiched candle pattern.

It is 13^th wave break down and it may not be easy to reverse trend sooner and with this much ease.

We have just few technical levels to watch now. One is at 4950 and then at 4930. Break of 4930 will end up near 4880. I am focusing mainly on 4880 levels. It is very clears from pattern that we are not going to see any remarkable recovery.

38.20% of rally from 4531 to 5630 ended at 4951. Seems we will touch those today. I strongly like to quote, “Whatever is happening in Europe will surely end up in a massive mess. This will give heavy pain to global stock market."

(Updating at 9:40am- Initial low for NIFTY is 4959.65, almost saving 4951 support. General theory suggest that we may see some intraday rebound. Will it come?)

I have repeated many times and repeating now also that banking stocks will have to bear majority of those upcoming pains. I cannot believe that we will have better second half. In my view, it might be something which we will remember for long time.

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889