You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
For 21 September 2016: -
On 20 September 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 1146.93 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 777.52 Crs
This down turn has got some silence but it has higher chance to head
lower in coming days. Price charts are suggesting that a strong sell signal
will emerge below 8685 and resistance is expected at 8855 levels. This range of
165 points may not give much opportunity to trade for direction although there may
be many possible swings. Once it breaks 8685 then we may expect some unexpected
levels. We are almost 90 points away form a decisive and trend reversal
support.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open on soft
note. I am quoting two important supports; one is at 8740 and next to come at
8685. Can we see the break of second? If yes then we can see a painful dip for
which many traders may not be prepared. Well, at least do not trade long as of
now on indices. If one wants to buy then one can opt stocks to trade long where
one may get many options.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty September
future – I can still repeat that technical set up is favouring sell mode
but we cannot say when will hit in big way. Before slipping in a big way it may
turn range bound to choppy and may be one more bounce to wash out weak bears. I
am considering this rise as an attempt by market to washout weak bears. Wait
for a firm sell signal which will come below 8770.
BANK NIFTY – It is just
here and there near 19850. If we can see break below 19750 on decisive way then
we can see a possibility of 19500. Market may be optimistic about rate cut next
months but those things may not be that easy. One must avoid any kind of
positional long although we may get some intraday swings out of which many
should be on short side.
