You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
We are look tired of this kind of
trading moves but these are unavoidable part of trading. For today –
Nifty will again try to come near to
5343. Will it cross? I do not like to speculate. Let it come and break by
itself. Crossover of 5343 should give us 5376 levels but that rise will not be
a easy one. I am already saying for dull rise and what you are experiencing is exactly
a dull rise.
Logically, fifth wave cannot extend
so much. Wave theory is suggesting that something will come out to stop this
rise. When I get any such indication I will let you know. Right now , I have
two levels, one is at 5343 and other at 5378.
Best technical indicator of NIFTY:
(You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011 , it started rising from 5 June
2012
only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.
First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343
(Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.
Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496
(Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)
Take another calculation, wave 1 =
4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)
Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1
or wave 3.
Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5
= 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as
tougher hurdle to cross.
Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70
to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)
76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3
= 5288, which was roughly the high point
I like to add one more point. This
rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as
reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100
levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.
So you should look for 5343 as first
hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance
can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not
close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.
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Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
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