You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
04 November 2016: -
On 03 November 2016: FII Net Sold – INR 706.77 Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 534.98 Crs
Nifty is running below 8500 and I can say that it is here and there at
8500 levels. Technically, we can say that we are still on make or break levels.
I am still not favouring adding short. Well, it depends on today’s trade. If this
can sustain below 8500 then we may be on the threat of fall.
For today’s trading session I am expecting market to open flat to
downside. If this can breaks the levels of 8500-8480 then I strongly suggest
avoid any kind of long trade. It may prove to be falling knife. I still believe
that market should not fall without bounce but there is no such signal of
bounce yet. Straight support after 8500-8480 is at 8400 levels. Will market
able to make a new support?
Read this long term analysis again.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had
suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for
retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty November
future – I do not have any trade now. I am waiting for a clear direction to
trade on index. I hope that I can get it today. May be, I have a soft call on
bounce but I am not very sure and hence it is not a call yet. Definitely, on
unusual weakness I will opt trading short.
BANK NIFTY – It came at
19200 levels but it has not done much after opening and confirming that it is
not going to give up so easily. Technical charts are suggesting for a down move
but there will be lot of resilience. I do not prefer shorting from current
levels without any bounce. I am expecting a bounce but there is no signal for
recovery yet.
