You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
On 16 January
2013 , FII
bought INR 1169.65 crs and DII sold INR 961.67 crs.
Nifty hit my informed resistance at
6084. We got Reliance result after market which is impressive enough to open
with 5% gap up. Somehow it may not able to give much impact on indices. Technical
charts are suggesting that trend it still up with sluggishness. Immediate trading
support will emerge at 6024 in any intraday fall.
I still believe that we may move
higher towards 6100 or 6126 but these might be for top. I am not trying to put
a nail on top as it is a dangerous task. I have already said this in past also
that as long as we are above 20 days exponential moving average we are safe for
short term. As of Friday’s close 20 EMA is at 5974 levels.
One can refer to my weekly wave
analysis of Nifty to understand the VIX. It has closed in green on a week where
market was rising. This is definitely not a good sign for market. I am unable
to conclude the time frame but it can make its impact very soon, in a week or two
that depends on market mood.
One need to note that now mid cap
and small cap indices are underperforming Nifty.
If you look at the hourly chart, we
can experience the intraday toughness. Where are the days when we were getting
trading movement of 40-40 points in a day? Practical trading range need to
improve but it is still narrow from month of December 2012 itself.
For today, I have a hope from
Reliance whose GDR has gained over 5% in Landon Stock Exchange.
Strategy for Nifty January future: It came near too 6096 but unable
to cross. It may try to move another attempt. Failure of 6-96 to 6100 will give
another intraday dip of 20-25 points. This might be the impact of Reliance. As
long as it is above 6050 for intraday basis, there can be the possibility of
bounce back. Break below 6050 will drag it towards 6018 to 6000 marks. Nothing
is impossible. Successful cross over of 6100 can invite short covering but those
depend on extent of rise on Reliance only.
S&P 500 – It has some high at 2007. VIX is
running below those 2007 levels. When investors turn so fearless, I start
fearing. I am expecting the dip to come very soon and my first logical target
is at 1445. I do not know the reason of fall. I am already saying that anything
above 1475 is for short and short only. Till now, I am wrong and it seems that I
have initiated short in hurry but I am firm on my decision. Definitely I am not
trying to be over confident as there are genuine sign for fall..
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
