03 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 8130 is a key support; if it breaks then we can expect 8000-7900 again. Sooner or later?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

03 January 2017: -

On 02 January 2017: FII Net Sold – 260.64 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 20.66 Crs

Does yesterday’s rebound from lower levels have meaning? Well, on technical chart it was again a move which is comparable to the bounce after breaking 7916. Right now, we are almost on 300 points higher than the recent low and we are on crucial resistance. I cannot deny some more upside but any great extension of this rebound is not looking promising. We will see resistance emerging at 8200 and then at 8240 and final resistance will be at 8275 levels.

For today’s trading I am expecting a flat start. This flat start is only because almost all global indices are trading higher. Technical support is at 8130 levels. Can it break 8130? I have no answer but if it breaks then only expect weakness in the market. I must say that we are entering in the reason season and I am expecting nervousness. This is my view and I am waiting for good technical confirmation to trade on this view.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – SGX Nifty is showing for a start at 8200 as of now. Well, in my view market will not able to sustain at higher side. It may give up its gain sooner or later. Technical resistance is at 8225-8240. In the down side it will have support at 8150. Can it break? If it breaks then we can expect a good fall. It does not matter if it happens today or tomorrow.

BANK NIFTY – I must say that BANK NIFTY is not as good as nifty. It will have hurdle at 18000 levels. It may not be easier to break 18000-18100 kind of levels. If banking stocks fails to support market then we can expect a fresh wave of dip and Bank Nifty should be worse hit in this process. A sell signal can emerge sooner or later.