23 January 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We can expect extension of the fall which began on Friday. Expecting – 8280!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

23 January 2017: -

On 20 January 2017: FII Net Bought – 26.34 INR Crs:  DII Net Sold – INR – 175.48 Crs

It finally gave up form levels above 8400. I was expecting this but it took so long. Today will be litmus test for market. If it fails today also then one can expect levels of 8300-8280 levels. I am expecting this to happen. First technical confirmation of fall is that it has closed below 8360 levels. Logically it should test at least 8280 kind of support levels. If it has not given fall with quarterly result then it should give fall post result. We have derivative expiry this Wednesday and we have budget coming next week. Market has every reason to be nervous.

For today’s trading I am expecting market to give soft opening and then a slide. Well, 8330 can also be a support but I do not think that it can hold. Technical resistance will emerge at 8400 and 8435 levels. I am not taking this as sector specific fall. Equally, I am almost sure that market will get nothing from budget. If budget has rescheduled before election then it is bound to be populist budget.

Let us see how things will shape up.

This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31^st March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.

I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or sharing so please do not make sure request.

Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575

101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future. If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone of 6000-5500.

Strategy for Nifty January future – Nifty future took too long to fall. It has wasted my attempt of adding put options. Technical support is at 8330 and if this breaks then we can expect levels of 8280 by today or tomorrow. Technical resistance for Nifty Future is at 8400 which is not likely to cross.

BANK NIFTY January future – It gave up from resistance levels and came to the lower levels. It has chance of hitting 18500 now. Let us see how it will react at opening. I do not think that Bank Nifty can hit higher without correction. In terms of price it has already slipped from higher levels and gave up well nearly 400 points. It’s going to be tricky expiry this week.