You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to
understand this article completely.
27 December 2016: -
On 26 December 2016: FII Net Sold – 1095.04 INR Crs: DII Net Bought – INR – 1065.39 Crs
I have posted a chat analysis which is giving a clear picture for next
3 to 6 months of trade. Have a look we can see the development of another
H&S pattern in formation. What a target which is reflecting on this chart
i.e. 6800. Will it be a reality? Yes, I strongly believe on this target. Elliott
wave were showing from long back.
What Elliott wave is showing for December month expiry? Well, it has
already done the minimum limit. 7900 has done although it was 4th
wave count on short term wave count which used to be tricky and choppy.
For today’s trading I am expecting a bounce to mild bounce and then a
fall again in next two days. Take a note that we are on N-line and bulls will
give their best to hold this levels. Technical levels for support are at 7890
kind of levels and then next support is at 7850. On higher side resistance is
at 7970. I am not expecting 8000 anytime sooner now. Let us see. Near to expiry
I used to be inactive.
In true sense market has not factored any negative factor yet it has
yet to react on index levels. It looks like optimism has saved the Indian
market which was and which is an exit opportunity.
For today’s trading I am expecting a negative opening with words of
optimism but those are useless. I am expecting another down day. I am expecting
support only at 7916 although we may have trading support at 7950 which used to
come every time it had broken 8000.
Technical momentum indicators like MACD is giving a clear sell which
is saying that this fall may have more pain.
This remains part of my article. We may be under bear market till 31st
March 2017 and what I am talking is a pullback of bear market on medium term
wave count. Someone asked me if global market is up how can Indian market be
down? Well, that’s the way and that’s what Elliott wave has convinced me.
I am just writing my view and I am least interested in learning or
sharing so please do not make sure request.
Do not misinterpret. I gave a long term trend as down from more than a
year back. Nifty hit 9119 and then I issued for a long term top. Nifty hits a
low at 6825 on Budget day this year. After such down side, wave theory had suggested
for comparable recovery with three big possibilities for retrenchments, first
to come at 50% at 8000, 61.80% at 8250 and 76.40% at 8575.
101%, I retain my view for long term trend down but that does not says
that we cannot interprets for short to medium term of recovery. This recovery
was bound to come and it is coming to make a wave [B]. Now, just imagine the
magnitude of wave [C]. Higher the retrenchment, bigger fall will hit in future.
If this wave [B] tries to end up near 9000 then 9119 may not be visible for
many years. So, where is my long term target on Nifty? Well, it is in the zone
of 6000-5500.
Strategy for Nifty December
future – I hardly traded Nifty Future in December month. I left this month
purposely as I do not trade much on counter trend moves with Nifty future. Time
to trade Nifty future came late now. Today is Tuesday and just two days away
from derivative expiry. I am expecting a mild bounce. I have very small
quantity of 7900 call from yesterday. I like to see what market is going to do.
It can be either choppy or up.
BANK NIFTY – BANK NIFTY
Future is now near to 17600 and this may be a place for small bounce. It has
not shaped yet for bounce but it may come today due to over sold nature of
indices. Well, I have believed that bounce may get sold at higher levels. Should
I short without a bounce? No, I will not. Let us see how this shapes up. Take a
note. 101% expiry price will shock everyone. Bulls or bears?
