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For 13
March 2014: -
On 12
March 2014, FII Bought INR 864.35 crs and DII Sold INR 821.97 crs
January
month IIP data came at 0.10% and February month CPI came at 8.10%. All these
data are almost better than market estimate. There is nothing in this data that
can make us worry and not even the reasons for cheers. Clearly, I can say that
on the basis of this data I am not expecting any rate cut. A euphoric market
may expect on the base on optimism.
In past
three trading sessions it came near to 6480 but saved every time. This is a
decisive support. We cannot see trend in intraday trading as long as it hold
above 6480. It can just able to make bounce from near to 6480 which it has done
many times in past three days.
We saw
stock and sector specific weakness in between. If we saw buying in banking
stocks then equally we saw selling in metal stocks. Even at all-time high we
fail to see momentum in each sector. It is true that rate sensitive stocks has
seen good rise in past few days but that can tired sooner now.
India VIX
is still running above 17 if not crossing 18. This kind of VIX is itself not
justifying Nifty levels. I can quote that if VIX crosses 18 anytime then we can
see some reasons for sharp sell-off. It can come sooner or later.
So study
remains same, range for the day should be 6565 to 6480. Will we get decisive
move? NIKKEI is trading at 15895. I expect that closing will go in deep down in
red. Very likely target is also falling in the range of 15200-15000 levels.
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Strategy
for Nifty March future – We may get flat
opening. It is saving 6510 levels from past three days and hence 6510 will
become support. On higher side 6595 is acting as resistance. It is distributing
at higher end but not giving any sign of meaningful pullback yet. It may not
come unless it settles below 6510. I still believe that this market should fall
from higher levels. We may be very close to a short to medium term top. Let us
see what comes today.
S&P
500
(USA) – It was quoted yesterday that
if it does not break 1850 then also it will come close to 1850. We saw a low at
1854 and then a bounce. How long can this continue? As long as it is above 1850
on closing basis we can hope for few more fresh life time’s high. I have a
feeling that S&P will swing in the range of 1884 to 1850 in few more days. Do
not try to find trend in this range as it can irritate you. Logically, 1884 is
a resistance but crossover can give levels above 1900 too. Is S&P preparing
for 2000 too? We have better answer on DJIA chart which is showing that16600
may not pass so easily and fall will hit before that only.
