31 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Anything above 6130 can result the test of 6150 first and then 6190. Technical support will now extend at 6080 levels. All eyes will be on GDP data today.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 May 2013: -

On 30 May 2013, FII bought INR 787.47 crs and DII sold INR 315.86 crs.

It was one of the wildest derivative months which closed on strong note. We saw new multi-year high and then a quick retrenchment towards 5930. Now we are again 200 points higher from those levels in the matter of just few trading sessions. For Indian market liquidity is still flowing in its own pace.

M&M has presented a strong set of numbers which DLF disappointed. We have already seen rewarding rise on M&M. Now for today, market will wait for its GDP data which is scheduled to come today. An expectation for GDP is for a range of 4.80% to 5.00%.

Technical charts are suggesting that Nifty has formed a base at 6050 levels and technical support will emerge at 6080 also. On higher side, it is manage to spend time above 6130 levels with volume then we can expect another 50-70 points of rise.

Alter sense suggests that if it breaks 6080 in the down side then it can move near to 6050 too. Any break below 6050 will be decisive. We need to assume that volatility will remain in this market. Nifty may fluctuate big before and after GDP data. Global markets are firm to strong right now.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX Nifty June future is at 6142 right now. It is indicating for 10-15 points’ higher start. Immediate technical resistance will be at 6150. Volume cross of 6150 will add 30-40-50 points more on higher side. Exact reachable levels can be 6186-6190. As long as it is staying above 6080, we cannot expect immediate weakness. It may swing in both directions depending on the outcome of GDP data.  

S&P 500 – Now, from past three trading days, US indices are closing well of its intraday high. This is a pattern changing but not yet giving good sign of any profit taking. I am still considering that as long as S&P 500 is above 1633 we have no room to think for correction. Stiff technical resistance will be at 1675 and 1688. If it goes below 1633 then we can hope for 1600-1575 as first meaningful correction of 2013.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A dull opening will get a follow up of volatility. Technical resistances are at 6130 and 6150. Break below 6050 will thrash the market sentiment.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 May 2013: -

On 29 May 2013, FII bought INR 643.81 crs and DII sold INR 308.12 crs.

It has not done anything big yesterday. It was volatile but range was narrow. We have seen fear in US and European markets. Even Asian markets are trading weaker. So far, Indian market has not seen that kind of weakness. Perhaps, traders want this expiry to pass.

We got two crucial results yesterday after market hours. Tata Motors presented a strongly quarterly earning while ONGC has disappointed a lot. DLF and M&M will present its numbers today.

Technical charts are almost remains same. On higher side we have two important resistances, one is at 6130 and other is at 6150 levels. In the downside 6050 has acted as a based in past three trading sessions. Technical charts are suggesting for reversal in momentum if it breaks 6050 levels.

There is another important factor which can spoil market mood. Indian rupee has seen constant depreciation against USD. So far, there were no big impact but it cannot ignore for long. Any further weakness must hit the market sentiment. Market might be speculative before GDP numbers too.

We have so many reasons to expect an extreme volatile day.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty May future is at 6085 right now. Technical support will be at 6050-6045 ranges. On higher side 6130 to 6150 will be stiff resistance levels. It is surely going to be volatile and major movement will start after 2 pm. If it breaks 6045-6040 with volume then it will again re-test 6000 marks. We should focus some directional trades only after 2 pm. First half may remain choppy to volatile in a range.

S&P 500 – This dip was well suggested on charts. S&P 500 is taking support at 20 days exponential moving average. I believe that we should focus on 1633 first. We need to note that 20 EMA is now at 1637. It has just tested and bounced. Let us see what is going to happen tonight. I say, let it break 1633. Once it breaks 1633 then we have reasons to believe for 1575 as downside dip.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has resistance at 6130-6150 levels and support at 6050. Restless volatility is expected for today and tomorrow. I cannot rule out the possibility of weakness.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 May 2013: -

On 28 May 2013, FII bought INR 711.12 crs and DII sold INR 507.82 crs.

I have highlighted the resistance at 6130 for the last trading session. Nifty hit a high at 6127 and closed at 6111. It is important to note that market was very volatile near 6100 marks. It is looking like more due to short covering before derivative expiry. Now, this market is expected to increase for today and tomorrow’s trading sessions.

US market closed on highest levels of life time on closing basis. European indices are moving towards its multi-year high. Asian indices are trading mix as Japanese market is again moving on wild note. It is important to note that Japanese indices are still on threatening levels. Any weakness below 14000 for Nikkei can put additional pressure.

In another development, PM has washed out all possibility of implementation of GST within a year. This is a sentiment dampener.  

We have some crucial result ahead today. Market will get Tata Motors, ONGC, HPCL and BPCL result today. Technical charts are suggesting that if Nifty breaks 6050 then only we can expect renewed selling in Indian market. As long as we are above 6050, we can expect volatility. I feel that Nifty will either take a pause at 6130 or at 6150.   

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty May future is at 6098 right now. Technical support will be at 6050-6045 ranges. On higher side 6130 to 6150 will be stiff resistance levels. It is surely going to be volatile and major movement will start after 2 pm. If it breaks 6145-6140 with volume then it will again re-test 6000 marks. We should focus some directional trades only after 2 pm. First half may remain choppy to volatile in a range.

S&P 500 – It has saved 1633 and then bounced again with a gap up. I has already given sell few days back. Weekly charts are saying for, “Wait and watch if it breaks 1633”. Yesterday also it hit a high near 1675 but given up half of the intraday gain. Is it the sign of tiredness? It is too early to conclude. Keep an eye on 20 days exponential moving average which is at 1633.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Derivative expiry pushed for wild volatility. Strong technical is at 6030. As long as stay above 6030, expect 6100 to 6130.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 May 2013: -

On 27 May 2013, FII bought INR 406.03 crs and DII sold INR 516.39 crs.

If you focus on movement cycle then you may feel that most of the time Nifty takes big movement in post 2 pm hours of trades. Yesterday was no different. Nifty moved sharply in last sixty minutes. Nifty moved from 6025 to 6100 from 2:30 pm to 3:00 pm. Idea to mention this is that market has limited its action in some particular timing. We can say that it was short covering driven impulse.

I have already said that further fall will be possible only if Nifty manage to stay below 5930 but it has never satisfied that equation and hence moved higher. Yesterday’s high was at 6099.90. So, for today’s trading if it manages to stay above 6100 then we can expect another round of short covering to a move towards 6130-6150. So far SGX Nifty is giving sign of flattish opening. We must remember that it is derivative expiry week. More importantly, it is the month where Nifty hit its multi month high too.

Technical charts are suggesting for support at 6048 to 6030. As long as it is staying above 6030, we can expect this rise to continue. I must say that trading will not be simple till Thursday. Keep an eye on Japanese market too. It is not impacting but it is equally tougher for the world to ignore if Nikkei slips below 14000 marks.  

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty May future is at 6075 right now which is almost flat. Technical support will be at 6035-6030 ranges. It is expected to give the re-test of 6100 marks for today. Crossover will give us a move towards 6130-36150 levels. Move above 6100 will be governed by short-covering. If it breaks below 6030 then it will reverse the momentum.

S&P 500 – It 20 days exponential moving average at 1633 which has saved in past two days and market rebounded from a nearer level. Now, 1633 is a good technical support. Only break of 1633 will show any further sign of weakness. Will strongest bull of the world allow S&P 500 to slip below 1633? Let us see tonight. MACD gave a sell on daily chart. RSI has already given sell few days back. Weekly charts are saying for, “Wait and watch if it breaks 1633”.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1481 and S&P @ 1655.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is still looking weak but support at 5930. If it breaks 5930 then only expect this selling to extend further. Resistance will be at 6012 and 6048.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 May 2013: -

On 24 May 2013, FII Sold INR 238.56 crs and DII sold INR 132.79 crs.

Above sell figures from FIIs are showing that they might be losing patience. It is a fact that FIIs are not making money on their India investment. Nifty slipped by 3.30% in the last week of trades. We saw first crack in Japanese market last week, like bubble bust. Even for today, right now Nikkei has seen a fall over 3%.  

I cannot say that American and European markets have given any great sign of price correction. It is likely to come but it has not come yet. Indian market has completely a different story, no matter what may be reasons. We have seen an easy dip of 3.30% dip last week. Now we are entering in derivative expiry week. We need to note that due to past five weeks of rise, we may not have great short build up yet. On Friday’s closing hours we got some intraday pullback due to short covering itself.

I have already quoted 5930 as a technical support for Friday and it hold well. I am giving importance to 5930 levels again for today also. If it breaks 5930 then we will see a sharp fall towards 5860 levels too. Apart from technical, I am sensing that Indian market will dance on Japanese as well as global mood.

Technical charts are suggesting for immediate support at 5950 to 5930 levels. On higher side we will have resistance at 6024 to 6048 levels.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is trading with a weakness of 15 points. It is hinting for soft opening. For Nifty May month future, important support is at 5930. Expect expiry based volatility for today and it may continue for next few days. Any rise will get sold at higher levels. Technical resistance will be at 6012 and then at 6048. It is going to be another tougher trading today also in term of volatility.

S&P 500 – It 20 days exponential moving average at 1633 which has saved in past two days and market rebounded from a nearer level. Now, 1633 is a good technical support. Only break of 1633 will show any further sign of weakness. Will strongest bull of the world allow S&P 500 to slip below 1633? Let us see tonight. MACD gave a sell on daily chart. RSI has already given sell few days back. Weekly charts are saying for, “Wait and watch if it breaks 1633”.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1481 and S&P @ 1655.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Close below 6000 may force us to change short term view. Technical support is at 5950, break will push us lower further towards 5860. Resistance is at 6050.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 May 2013: -

On 23 May 2013, FII bought INR 316.23 crs and DII sold INR 538.75 crs.

Japanese blue chip index Nikkei has slipped over 7% yesterday. It was a characteristic one day drop which comes after sharp rise. Indian market was also under that fear although we have not seen as much as rise Japan has seen. Right now, Japanese market is recovering after yesterday’s shock.    

Last night, US market covered almost a very big part of the loss which was indicating while we were trading. It may be the bulls attempt to save. Bulls at USA did their best but threat will alive. It has almost slipped by 350 points from its Wednesday’s high and so far, recovered by 50%. I can say that US market has not got any strong follow up of selling.

We got some crucial result in past few days where LT and SBIN have disappointed a lot. On other hand, Tata Steel has given result in line with market expectation. Almost all blue chip stocks have delivered their number but most has disappointed. We can say that India’s earning were not as good as developed market. This might be the reason that our market remains a under performer.

Now a lot depends on monsoon development.

Technical charts are suggesting for immediate support at 5950 to 5930 levels. On higher side we will have resistance at 6024 to 6048 levels. I am expecting a choppy trading session.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is hinting for start at 5990 levels which is not as better as US market has recovered. After such opening, technical resistance will be at 6020. Crossover of 6020 will push it towards 6050. In the lower side, break below 5949 will give fresh wave of panic. Charts are showing that market will head towards lower levels with some consolidation. Note that 5949 is the 38.20% retracement of rise from 5480 to 6239.

S&P 500 – It has seen a drop from 1687 to 1636 in the matter of 24 hours. Now it has closed at 1650 which is a dot resistance. I will not say that pain is over. In fact, it is the beginning of pain. So far, strongest bulls of the world have held their market in a good way. Let us see for today. Break below 1636 will give us 1600. It should come and market need to find its excuse for that.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1481 and S&P @ 1655.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is a close below 6100 and we have a chance of moving towards 6050 to 6100. Fed given a hint for roll back of QE.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 May 2013: -

On 22 May 2013, FII bought INR 540.19 crs and DII sold INR 973.15 crs.

It was another post 2 pm sell off and Nifty closed lower below 6100 marks. I cannot say that it was unexpected. For some reasons, Indian market is under performing its global market. Indian rupee too has shown further weakness.

Well, we have seen chaos last night in US market. Firstly, Ben Barnanke has said something but fed minutes was completely different. I can still say that even US market should be watched for follow up selling. It will be too early to estimate bulls.

Technical charts are suggesting that break below 6100 will push Nifty lower towards 6050 and further break will cause a test towards 6000 marks. So far, RSI has already given negative divergence and a sell on daily chart. Now, MACD is almost giving sell on daily chart.

We have four crucial results today – SBIN, Tata Steel, BHEL and JSWSTEEL. It will be jumbo day for result and very important as LT has disappointed yesterday.

SGX Nifty is right now at 6098, down by 13 points. I am expecting another weak opening and Nifty will see selling intensifying in second half. Reactions are expected on quarterly numbers depending on figures. Keep an eye on SBIN’s NPA number.  

Strategy for Nifty May future – It hit a low at 6081 yesterday. It will be important to note that break below 6077 will give another strong sell signal for a move towards 6040 levels. On higher side 6125 will act s stiff resistance. I am already expecting for a move towards 6000 marks before expiry. One more negative close on US market can put a lot of dent on sentiment in India.

S&P 500 – It hit another high at 1687 but it was a different day. S&P slipped from higher point with dancing views of Ben Barnanke. It finally closed at 1655 with some trade below crucial 1650 too. If we get a follow up today below 1650 then it will be a confirmation of reversal.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1481 and S&P @ 1655.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Break below 6100 will push Nifty lower towards 6050 and then 6000 levels too. The decisive fed comment will be on eye tonight.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 May 2013: -

On 21 May 2013, FII bought INR 679.44 crs and DII sold INR 866.70 crs.

Closing basis, market has closed negative and closed near to the day’s low. It has just saved critical 6100 levels. This is not sufficient to define market movement as we have seen a rebound of 60 points in the period between 1:40 pm to 1:50 pm. It was bull’s attempt which has failed miserably in last one hour of trades. It put a big dent on hourly chart. 101%, this kind of bounce cannot be predicted. This is making trading troubling.  

We got a dip when global markets were stable to silent. It is noticeable that Indian market is again under performing the global markets. One must note that India rupee got another sharp depreciation against USD. It is now at 55.30 levels which is lowest of last six months. It is again giving fresh threat of broadening trade deficit.

Technical charts are suggesting that break below 6100 will push Nifty lower towards 6050 and further break will cause a test towards 6000 marks. So far, nifty is 2% down from its recent high. RSI has already given negative divergence and a sell on daily chart. Now, one more negative close may create sell on MACD as shown in the chart.

SGX Nifty is right now at 6140. I am expecting another dull first half after 15-20 points higher opening and then second half will again give wild moves. Preferable hours of trade will come after 2 pm. Note that from past three days, post 2 pm trade direction remains unidirectional.

Strategy for Nifty May future – An intraday pullback from 6125 to 6190 has failed. Close below 6125 has generated sell again. Now, suppose, if it breaks 6105 for today’s trading with volume and time then we can expect further 55 points of slide. It will give us target near 6050 levels. Any higher opening will get sold at higher levels.   

S&P 500 – It hit another high at 1675.20. It seems that nothing can stop US market. All technical indicators are dead right now. Ben Barnanke will release his view on QE which is expected to be dovish. Will that able to bring correction or will that give another leg of rise? Let us see.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1478 and S&P @ 1667. I say, correction is a natural law and it must come but I have no idea when will it come.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support will be at 6140 and then at 6110. Global silence may push Indian indices lower towards 6080. Higher resistance will be at 6230.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 May 2013: -

On 20 May 2013, FII bought INR 753.37 crs and DII sold INR 764.30 crs.

It was last hour which was full of action for bears. Nifty has slipped sharply from higher levels. I have already said that we may see a fall from higher levels in second half of trade. Nifty hit a high at 6229 while technical resistance was supposed to act at 6240.  

It is more important to note that almost all global markets are flat to negative with this morning. Market man will prefer to see Fed minutes which have scheduled to come on Wednesday. There are some threat that Fed may act to rollover partial QE. Market may turn more speculative today. Question is – Can US market sustain higher if there will be roll back in QE?

Technical charts are suggesting for a technical support at 6140. Now, suppose if it breaks then we can expect the test of support at 6110-6100 marks. Moving on higher side it will face resistance at 6200 and 6230. I am still not denying the possibility of rise on index as it is still above threshold point.

Following the history, Indian market may prefer to give moves in second half of trades. It means that I am expecting a dull first half if is it saving 6140 levels. SGX NIFTY is giving a hint for flat opening.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It has missed 6240 by just one point yesterday. We have seen sudden sell off in the second half of the session, especially in last hour. One can expect trading resistance at 6200 and 6240. In the down side, break below 6150 will drive it lower towards 6110-6100 levels. There is no running away from volatility. Key is – Are we going to see follow up of yesterday’s pullback?

S&P 500 – It hit another high at 1673 but closed with a loss of 7 points from its intraday high. People at USA will prefer to see what Fed is going to say about QE. One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1478 and S&P @ 1667. I say, correction is a natural law and it must come but I have no idea when will it come.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If it manages to stand above 6200 then one can expect a further rise towards 6240 to 6260 levels. Trading support will be at 6140 and then at 6110.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 May 2013: -

On 17 May 2013, FII bought INR 867.93 crs and DII sold INR 716.69 crs.

On Friday, market was moving in a choppy range but it has again moved higher in the last 60 minutes of trade to hit almost 6200 marks. It manages to close on good note as closing levels came near to the day’s high.

We have seen another massive rally in US market on Friday night. Now US rally is driving most of the Asian market including Japan. Will US market ever stop? This is beyond the reach of technical indicators.

Technical charts are suggesting for few important threshold point. One such is at 6200 which was almost tested on Friday. Now suppose, if it manage to cross above 6200 marks then one can expect a rise towards 6240 to 6260 levels.

Immediate technical support is expected at 6140 and 6110 levels. This is the market where every support is working while every resistance is failing. Rating agency S&P still kept India’s outlook as ‘negative’. Well, I do not believe their rating as those are highly biased.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It is a market moving with higher high. It hit a high at 6209 on Friday. It is looking like to open above those high. It should try to attend the levels of 6250-6260 levels. We may see intraday dip from higher levels in second half. So far, from Friday’s close and today’s opening point, it is looking to move higher. It has a threshold at 6198 which it has crossed.     

S&P 500 – There is no technical study which can able to give real true picture of S&P 500. It is just moving like there is no end. One should note that current levels and 200 days moving average have a highest gap right now comparing to all historical moves. It has digested all possible negative news and now there seems to be no reasons which can give a fall. Gravity should act but when will it act? Will the ‘teper’ top come sooner? We have so many questions and unfortunately there is no answer. Still, a technical support at 1650.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As long as it is holding above 6110, it may not give easy signal for profit taking but another critical resistance is ahead. Resistance is at 6200-6240.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 May 2013: -

On 16 May 2013, FII bought INR 1070.32 crs and DII sold INR 390.42 crs.

It was a choppy trading session after a breakout on Nifty at 6120. Well, we have seen 700 points of run up on Nifty and it was looking to face resistances on rise but it has broken every single resistance. Next such crucial resistance is at 6200 marks. Derivative build up is giving a hint that if it manages to cross 6200 marks then we can expect a move towards 6240-6260 levels on short covering rise.  

This market may not give easy sign of give up as long as it is staying above 6110-6100 levels. Now suppose if it fail to cross above 6200 marks then it will turn dull like yesterday. So far, this market is looking to be buying on dip market.

Although SGX NIFTY is giving signals for slightly higher start but global cues are not as strong like past few days. Government is planning to speed up its disinvestment program. Perhaps, SGX NIFTY is reflecting those impacts.

Market is likely to give its reaction on ITC result impact which is expected to be coming today. Will it surprise like HUL? SBIN chairman said that he is not expecting rate cut in June month monetary policy review.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It is moving with higher high and higher low. So, it is a better idea to add long trade on the cross of previous day’s high. So, in that way, cross above 6198 will give another 30-50 points of rise. In the lower side we will get trading support at 6160 levels. Break of 6160 can give a fall towards 6120-6110. Anything below 6110 will be critical and crucial as well.  

S&P 500 – There are some talk of roll back of QE in this summer. This is making US market little nervous. Fed may reduce its bond buying program. It has seen a fall from 1661. US market futures are showing sluggish sign this morning. One more dip and then we can be in better position to conclude for some correction. I must add that charts have no such history of such overbought market in the world. I am hoping for 1635 now if fall continues.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Fresh hope of rate cut gave a fresh out. It is looking for more and more upside if it manages to stay above 6160 levels. Technical support is at 6110-6100 now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 May 2013: -

On 15 May 2013, FII bought INR 1646.95 crs and DII sold INR 747.11 crs.

Now a day lots of unexpected things are happening in global financial market. From the day easy money hit, it becomes master indicator. New in the series came from India where RBI governor gave a ray of hopes for the next monetary policy review. Hence, we got a surprise rally.

A surprise rally gave us a fresh breakout on long term chart as it has successfully crossed the previous high of 6111-6115. It is almost 700 points stretch on Nifty from its recent of 5477 and it is still running. It can be concluded that it is over stretched but the fact it that it got new fuel to run higher.

There are few contradictions in India market. Like, VIX also got the breakout as it is now at 18.13. Does this give a hint that people are buying this rally with fear? Answer may be yes but on charting basis it is a breakout on higher side to see a move towards new all-time high. We just need a follow up rally. So, today’s trading session will be very crucial.

Technical charts are suggesting that crossover of 6160 will give another higher levels towards 6240 and then may be even 6360. Well, it is very important to note that the lower side support will be at 6110-6100 levels. If it breaks 6100 today by any chance then we need to review again. It is not an easy market to trade.

Strategy for Nifty May future – Yesterday’s high of 6169 will act as crucial threshold point for today’s session. Cross above 6169 (for 5 minutes) will drive it higher towards 6250-6260 levels. Strong technical support will be at 6110-6100 levels. Condition for this rise to continue is that it has to maintain levels above 6100. Let us see how it is going to shape up for the day. I still say that nothing is unexpected for Indian market.

S&P 500 – If I take November low which was at 1345 then we have already seen a rally of more than 23%. Now, this is historical. It has never gained so much in one rally. It is full 11.20% away from its 200 days moving average. Every day it is making newer life time high. It has crossed its previous life time high on 10^th April 2013 and it is still continuing. No one knows when it will fall but whenever it fall it will be brutal one. I am still on wait and watch mode.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trending support for Nifty is at 5980-5970. Only break below those will give next bigger sell off. Resistance should emerge at 6040 and 6070.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 May 2013: -

On 14 May 2013, FII bought INR 420.99 crs and DII sold INR 412.66 crs.

Nifty has saved technical support of 5970 as a dot. It has not closed on encouraged note. Well, what has happened last night was more remarkable. USA and Europe market has seen further massive rise. Backed by those, Japanese market is above 15000 marks right now and this is first time after January 2008.

When will this euphoria stop in USA? Well, no one can say that and it is looking like those will never fall now. It is useless to focus on any reasons. As long as fed is backing equity price, it is looking hard to expect fall. Even investors satisfaction looks like to convert in to greed.

For Nifty, it is very important that it sustain below 5970 now. If it starts trading below 5970 then we can expect selling to extend toward 5930 to 5900 levels. In alter sense, as long as it is saving 5970, we can expect pause. I do not think that rise in US market is sufficient to give us a push. Indian market is under - performing on long term chart.

On higher side, it will have two important trading hurdles, which is at 6040 and 6070 levels.

Almost all momentum indicators are giving a sell signal. It is still hard to believe how much we shall believe the technical indicators when global markets are on massive rally. So far SGX Nifty is at 6034 levels which are not as strong as global market.

After CPI and WPI numbers, market is looking for GDP data.

Strategy for Nifty May future – It has last close at 6005 but it may see some higher opening near 6030 levels. After higher gap, we should first see the gap fill if it comes. Yesterday, we have seen massive volatility in 40 points range. I do not think that it will be easy to deal for intraday cue to volatility. Avoid trades for first half, and then act based on high-low of the first half. By any chance, if it breaks 5980 on lower side then a definite short trade will emerge.

S&P 500 – Does it make sense? Definitely not, at least based on any book of technical. Remember that 1600 to 1610, it has not trades at all as it was gap up. Even that gap it has failed to fill. I got a threshold at 1616 to 1620 but it has saved those marks too. I just like to see when it will give up. Closing at day’s high can never give any such signal for even small pullback. This market looks too far away from investor’s satisfaction.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

14 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Watch out of follow up of this selling. If it comes then Nifty can see fall of another 100-150 points sooner.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 May 2013: -

On 13 May 2013, FII bought INR 244.09 crs and DII sold INR 454.82 crs.

I have already said yesterday that if it breaks 6080-6070 levels (which were newer base) then we can see some bigger profit taking. It has broken 6080-6070 and slipped almost 100 points even from that level. Eventually, it has lost the last five days of gain in a single trading session.

Om Saturday, it hit a high at 6114 and then we got a smaller gap down followed by fall. If indices slip from just nearer to previous high then it can be a sign of extreme bearishness. It has broken and closed below 6000 marks.

Indian market has definitely a lot different shapes compared to the rest of the globe. US indices are still running at newer high while European market has also moved to five year’s higher levels. Reasons are very clear that those markets are running on monetary easing.

Well, technical chart of Nifty is suggesting for further sell off or sell to continue. Irrespective of technical indication, it is better to watch out if follow up of this is coming or not. In order to make sell off continue, it is very important that Nifty sustain below 5970 now. If it starts trading below 5970 then we can expect selling to extend toward 5930 to 5900 levels.

One can study indicators like RSI and MACD. I have already plotted on the given chart. On hourly charts, RSI has given too many divergences. On daily charts, it has given an indication of sluggishness before fall.

India VIX has threshold point at 17.84 and yesterday’s high of 17.79. It is an irony that VIX moved higher with rise in index in month of May so far.

Strategy for Nifty May future – I said this earlier also that if May month sell off comes then it may not need reasons. Suddenly Nifty lost more than 2% yesterday. The next technical threshold levels will be at 5980 to 5970. If it breaks those levels then we can expect further bigger selling. It can reach technical levels of 5900 to 5850. On higher side 6024 and 6060 will act as trading hurdles. This is the market of patience.

S&P 500 – I still believe that a top should come at anywhere between 1635 to 1640 range for this week. Will it ever fall? No news is bad news, no higher gap filled up so far. I am eager to see what will bring correction in USA. Technical studies remain same but technical study has no great value in this kind movement. I still have a sell-threshold point at 1616 – 1620 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar