You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 16
April 2013: -
On 15 April
2013, FII sold INR 418.37 crs and DII sold INR 297.18 crs.
I am
already saying this from past few days that FIIs are losing hope and they may
prefer to take big exit. Yesterday’s sell figure in cash market is biggest for
single day in recent few months. Remember, this came when Nifty closed with a
gain of 40 points.
I am not
giving much importance to yesterday’s recovery as it came due to excessive
shorting and less trigger for further selling. Well, I used higher levels for
shorting again. Global market is providing trigger at this moment as US market
slipped massively last night. It is coming after a real long waiting. We have
equally seen the massive selling in commodity market too where Gold gave big
dent.
We got
improved WPI numbers, which has also helped us to close in green but nifty
close much away from its intraday top. Now, why gold slipped in this brutal
way? Market has a fear that some euro zone country will sell their gold
reserve. Imagine one thing, if you are forced to sell your gold which your
family owned from long time then what can be concluded for your financial condition?
Your answer is the condition of euro zone. So, Mr, Mario Draghi brings this. Sooner
or later, all asset class will get this kind of melt down.
In my
view, technical figures will remain unchanged. This fall is already coming from
my given resistance of 5610. As long as it is below 5610, I can hope for 5447
to 5400 marks. Market would like to see Reliance result also as trigger event. Let
us see the figures first. Market has higher hopes.
My point
is that we are moving towards some global meltdown sooner or later. This is
most crucial week as data from USA and China has suggested for halt in economic
recovery.
Strategy
for Nifty April future – I said yesterday to
keep an eye on 5500 marks. It hit a low at 5503 in initial minutes and then
bounced. This bounce came due to better than expect WPI numbers and some short
covering. In the bounce it came at 5600 but slipped in final minutes of trades.
I am again saying keep an eye on 5500. If trades sustains for 5-10 minutes
below 5500 then we may see fall towards 5450 levels too. It is always better to
sell rise in this kind of market.
S&P 500 – I was
so tired yesterday as my anticipated fall was not coming. Immediately, we got
the selling and S&P 500 came near 1550 levels with a loss of 37 points in a
single days. I got a buy signal on CBEO VIX in the mid-March month itself and
it has suddenly moved from 12 to 17 now (gaining over 40%). I am expecting a
sooner cross above 20 as fear is rising in the market now. I am expecting fall
to be deeper for this week now. Chances are higher than we will see S&P 500
coming in the zone of 1500 to 1485 in just few days.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
