You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
On 15 January
2013 , FII
bought INR 1077.55 crs and DII sold INR 755.84 crs.
FII can put as much money as much
they want and it is looking endless right now. Nifty is breaking every single
technical barrier with ease. We are near to the top but not on top yet. One must
note that in a market which kept on hitting newer high, it is not possible to
say that any particular levels will be a top or will form a top.
We will have immediate trading
support at 6024 levels. We need to see some formation to develop at higher levels
to bet for any remarkable weakness. As of now I can say that 20 days
exponential moving average is one such level. It is still below 6000 marks of
Nifty.
Practical trading suggests that we
need to rely more on charting formation than moving average cross over or break
down. Many technical indicators have entered in over bought zone. Many global
markets are trading on mutli-month high.
My prime reason to be susceptive is
divergence formation on few important technical indicators. We may not see decisive
fall now but things are not even looking good for buy. A technical chart has a
structure which is suggesting for 6080-6084 as target on the cross above 6042.
I need to say that cross over will
generate the target of 6126 on Nifty spot. We have seen some silence to profit
taking in European market. I am expecting profit taking to come in Asian
indices today. Can I say same thing for Nifty? Opps !!! No, not yet. Market is
still assuming that we will get a rate cut in this month. “Optimism” is a key
driver above 6000 of Nifty. The person who is going to take a decision is still
silent. Corporate earning is looking good so far but many stocks has already
seen very sharp rise in past three months.
Conclusion Nifty: We can conclude that up trend will
continue and Nifty may try to move towards 6084 levels. It will have trading
support at 6024.Wecan expect profit taking only if it sustain below 6024 for
5-10 minutes. Do note that nifty future will give lots of trouble due to heavy
fluctuation in premium. I am taking a key that I will buy only a positive market.
I will not prefer to conclude for buy in dip kind of strategy from higher
levels.
S&P 500 – I said, “Short on every rise. We
may see 1500 also but all those levels will be for SHORT & SHORT only.” Till
now it is turning shy at 1475 levels. I cannot say when it will see a dip but
many momentum indicators are turning sluggish. It is a zone where one needs to
spread short. Correction will be technical in nature. There are few concerns
over debt ceiling but those has no great impact yet.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
