28 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market man expect at least one test of 8000 on Nifty. Will Nifty make it? DOJI formation denied such possibility. Once again, be cautious at higher levels. It may be dull expiry !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 August 2014: -

On 27 August 2014, FII Bought INR 290.18 crs and DII Bought INR 236.99 crs

It has given a very dull day yesterday after a gap up which is reflecting as DOJI formation on daily chart. If we have tp give importance to charting formation then we can found too many DOJI formations. It is a reflection of confusion in traders mind. Traders are unable to show confidence over next leg of rally. Nifty moved more than 400 points in 13 trading sessions.

Even global indices are firm so far with all possible hints for top. We have derivative expiry today with a long weekend ahead. So far, rollover data shows that traders are expecting resistance at 8000 levels. In such case it is hard to believe for expiry going at 8000 levels but option views may go wrong many times in past.

For today’s trading once again, I believe that Nifty has resistance at 7950 levels as got a hint from hourly chart. Please refer to the given snap shot. Once it stands above 7950 then we can get a possible move towards 7980 but it may not hit 8000 levels. Even if it hits 8000 then also it may not sustain. Can we expect a wild expiry? It may not be so. Even after all-time high, expiry may be dull.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty September future has a low at 7955 yesterday which was a dot high point day before yesterday. This will play crucial role for today’s session. So far, opening should come on stronger note with small gap up. If it sustain above 8000 levels then it may try to gain a move towards 8025-8030 levels. Do not short unless it breaks and sustain below 7955!!! Nothing is impossible.

S&P 500 (USA) – I do not need to change even single word from my study. 2005 may remain top for short term. S&P chart is still bullish but a short term pull back it still due. Remember that now it is 100 points up move without any price correction so it may give a correction now before moving higher. It is just running higher and higher with higher top. If it breaks 1990 in the lower side then it will be a confirmation for short top. I still believe that US indices are running near short term top itself but it just needs few definitions. 

28 August 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – RCOM, TATAMOTORS and LUPIN

RCOM (116.15)

Buy above 118/ SL 117/Target-120-121|| Sell below 115/ SL 116.50/ Target 113-110

TATAMOTORS (521.70)

Buy above 524/ SL 521/ Target 530-535 ||Sell below 518/ SL 521/ Target 513-508

LUPIN (1289.65)

Buy above 1309/SL 1303/ Target 1340 ||Sell below 1284/ SL 1292/ Target 1270-1250

27 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Just a day away from derivative expiry and today is 13th day from the recent low of 7540 levels. Technical resistance zone will be 7930-7940 and then at 7970 only if not 8000. Wolfe wave is still alive!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 August 2014: -

On 26 August 2014, FII Bought INR 364.72 crs and DII Sold INR 259.18 crs

We are just a day away from derivative expiry and I mostly avoid these days for trading. We have a coincidence for the day, today is 13^th trading session from recent low of 7540. I still believe that Wolfe wave will play its role below 7850 but where is 7850 now. It has saved even yesterday and closed above 7900 levels.

Take a note that market has done nothing from past six trading sessions except ranging at 7900 here and there. It is just making things tougher for traders to conclude. Unless it breaks 7850 it will not easy to say even for top. It is surely going to be wild for two trading sessions, one is today and another is tomorrow.

Option mechanism is suggesting for strong support to emerge at 7800 which has higher open interest but this view may change at the breaks 7850 on Nifty spot. On higher side 7930 and 7970 should still be a tougher resistance to trade.

For today’s trading once again, I will prefer to watch for levels of 7850. Yesterday’s low was 7862. I have already expressed my view that break below 7850 will give alarming signal for fall. We have seen some bleeding mid cap stocks in past few weeks. It has added few more names yesterday. This kind of phenomenon should result a top on blue-chip indices too. I will not able to name level as top unless Nifty breaks 7850.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty September future has a low at 7906 yesterday. It bounced at a time when it was looking for a drag below 7900. It has hit a high at 8015 two days back. Pattern analysis is suggesting for a possible pullback again from a high point on intraday levels. It will face resistance at 7980 and then at 8020. Take a note that it may opening 25-30 points higher.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P chart is still bullish but a short term pull back it still due. Remember that now it is 100 points up move without any price correction so it may give a correction now before moving higher. It is just running higher and higher with higher top. If it breaks 1990 in the lower side then it will be a confirmation for short top. I still believe that US indices are running near short term top itself but it just needs few definitions. 

27 August 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – CUMMINSIND, CANBK and RCOM

CUMMINSIND (698.95)

Buy above 706/ SL 706/Target-715-720 || Sell below 692/ SL 698/ Target 685-680

CANBK (393.80)

Buy above 394/ SL 392/ Target 398-403 ||Sell below 389/ SL 391/ Target 382-380

RCOM (118.10)

Buy above 120/SL 119/ Target 122-123 ||Sell below 117/ SL 118.25/ Target 115.50 > 113

26 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Have we seen final short term top at 7969? We need to see follow up selling before any confirmation. Crucial support is still 7850. If it breaks then we will see alarming dip/fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 August 2014: -

On 25 August 2014, FII Bought INR 127.33 crs and DII Bought INR 45.71 crs

We got a high of 7969 on Nifty but highlight was not high for yesterday. Attention was given to the possible cancellation of coal block which were allotted after 1993. This force me to give full attention to the day’s low which came with impulsive selling. In current situation impulsive selling give us an idea of possible nervousness of bad news. Rising wedge on hourly chart was giving this hint. It helps me yesterday to make quick exit before fall turned nasty.

I was hoping for a possible move towards 8000 before falling but it missed by wide 80 points. Well, I still say that Wolfe wave will be in full effect below 7850 and it has no effect above 7940. If we are on fifth Elliott wave on daily chart then this kind of odd bounce and impulsive falls are bounce to come and it’s a fair characteristic.

It is also noticeable that we are in derivative expiry week with a Holiday on Friday. This is adding further fuel to volatility. From my experience I can tell you that rally with new all-time high should not go without metal stocks. If this happens then it hints us that top is nears. Have an example – Tata Steel is down by 11% from its high.

For today’s trading 7890 is a crucial trading support before 7850. If it breaks and sustain below 7890 then we can expect some swift selling towards 7850 levels. On higher side 7940 and 7970 will act as resistance. Let us talk about the development which can affect market moves, first is development on SC verdict coal block allocation and second is tension over Indo-Pak border. Let me make it clear, trades based on chart only. Do not take fall as guarantee. We will see guaranteed fall only below 7850.

S&P 500 (US) added a few more set of Tom Demark ‘sell’ signal near 1985-1990 ranges. This shows that at least for short term, rally is on halt.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should open on flat note. Technical charts are giving immediate support at 7900 levels. If it breaks 7900 then only can expect some selling which can have meaning. Technical resistance point will be at 7945 and 7980 for today’s trading. Break below 7900 will make it impressive before expiry. I will plan to add intraday short only if it sustains below 7900 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P finally got its desired level of 2000 marks yesterday. It hit a high at 2002.20 to trap extra excited bulls. I prefer short here in this zone. In my view short term top has done and we may see a reactive dip afterward. So, rest of the week should go in favour of bears. 2002 will act as stiff technical resistance. Perhaps this is simplest form of conclusion after analysis. Just short!!! 

26 August 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – TATASTEEL, DLF and NMDC

TATASTEEL (512.00)
Buy above 518/ SL 515/Target-524 || Sell below 508/ SL 512/ Target 500-496

DLF (190.85)
Buy above 192.50/ SL 191.50/ Target 194-195 ||Sell below 189.50/ SL 191/ Target 187-185

NMDC (171.70)
Buy above 174/SL 173/ Target 176-177 ||Sell below 170/ SL 171.50/ Target 167-165

25 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry week may invite more puzzles if Nifty goes above 7940. It may be in the race of 8000 if breaks higher above 7940. Good confirmation of fall should come below and only below 7850 as per Wolfe wave!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 August 2014: -

On 22 August 2014, FII Bought INR 302.06 crs and DII Sold INR 183.64 crs

Friday’s closing goes surprise for me. So far, it has denied the possible impact of Wolfe wave at new all-time high and denied strongly. It has nearly 1% away from threshold support of 7850. As long as it is staying above 7850 we can say for a move towards 8000 levels. Race may be quick and confirm once Nifty start getting life above 7940 levels.

I need to repeat again that Wolfe wave will take effect if and only if Nifty spot breaks 7850. It is looking like a rising wedge now. The major characteristic of this formation is that it may try to give some sharp rise before fall. In such case, expiry week may go wild. Lots of shorts are left in the system and many new shorts much have added in the anticipation of fall. Market can fall from top but we not be on exact top yet.

We have a range of 7940 to 7850 where Nifty will swing without any direction. As per Fibonacci series, above 7940, this market will be only for bulls again. Elliott wave target can be 8132 and 8000 may act as psychological resistance. Remember, till 8000, Wolfe wave effect cannot rule out.

Another important point is that moving average supports are too far from current levels. Even 20 DMA is 160 points away. In case of fall, those may also be as sharp as rise. Pick of the sectors can be banking, technology and auto. One must avoid long on those mid cap which has already shown weakness in recent days.

S&P 500 (US) added a few more set of Tom Demark ‘sell’ signal near 1985-1990 ranges. This shows that at least for short term, rally is on halt.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should open on caution note on expiry week. It is the time to switch trading activity in to September month future. So far, August future has high fluctuation in its premium. Technical support will emerge at 7890 zone. If it breaks 7890 then we can expect a move towards 7860-7850 levels which is a decisive support. On higher side 7940-7950 is a resistance. Take a note that cross above 7950 will add short covering to challenge 8000 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – Was it not a good time to test 2000 on Friday’s trading session itself but it missed and closed at 1989. I still believe that near to 2000 levels will offer a psychological resistance. I feel that 1994 was a good trading resistance point. We have bearish divergence on hourly chart and it need to retest levels of 1975 before making attempt for 2000 or higher. This current move is suggesting that near term top will come as 20XX!!! 

25 August 2014: Stock Chart Analysis for intraday – TECHM, KOTAK BANK and JPASSOCIAT

TECHM (2306.45)

Buy above 2315/ SL 2305/Target-2340-2370 || Sell below 2280/ SL 2290/ Target 2260-2240

KOTAK BANK (1030.75)

Buy above 1036/ SL 1030/ Target – 1045-1052 ||Sell below 1021/ SL 1028/ Target 1013-1008

JPASSOCIAT (51.80)

Buy above 53/SL 52.50/ Target 54-55 ||Sell below 51/ SL 50.70/ Target 50-49-48

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS – 25 AUGUST 2014 TO 28 AUGUST 2014

Trend established on weekly chart is still intact and upward with previous weekly closing at top most point. It is showing for more steam left in Nifty for upside. One need to note that weekly strong support is at 7650-7600 based on trend line.  This is 5^th wave on Elliott chart. Diamond formation is now turning to ‘rising wedge formation’. It is meaningful with support at 7850. 101% - be caution at higher levels if it emerges near 8000 psychological mark. Although, Elliott wave resistance will be at 8132 only if it manages to stay above 7940.

22 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A pullback remains in waiting. 7920 will again act as stiff trading resistance. Pull back will get confirmation below 7850 which is still little too far. 11th trading day from 7540 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 August 2014: -

On 21 August 2014, FII Bought INR 412.77 crs and DII Bought INR 63.74 crs

It is a dot top at 7920 and then a sell off for 65 points of Nifty. Note that 20 DMA is at 7752 which is 140 points away and 50 DMA is at 7662 which is 230 points away so we have limited number of support in the downside. This is challenging if we see even small weakness. I have already explained about formation of Wolfe wave.

It is the extension of 1-3-5 or a-c-e as supply line. Bulls get tired on supply line and they may just fail to give a break on higher side or push on higher side. It will just cross and then dip. I am expecting that if it breaks 7850 for once without violating top of 7922 then we may see some brutal selling. So far, I am naming those as pullback.

Today is last trading day of the week. I am expecting a pullback as of now. Remember that we have seen one of the sharpest 7 days rise in the market so far. Reaction coming at higher levels must be an obvious phenomenon. Market got supported with rise in Pharma, Auto and private banks. Below 7850 on Nifty, we may see some good confirmation of pullback. So far, this is just speculative in nature.

S&P 500 (US) added a few more set of Tom Demark ‘sell’ signal near 1985-1990 ranges. This shows that at least for short term, rally is on halt.

For today’s session, we will see a higher opening and then I will plan to test for short based on Wolfe wave formation on Indian market. Have a look at daily levels. Nifty hit lower low for three trading days in a row but still trading up. I favour to add short on S&P 500 now based on Tom Demark sell signal. Only problem is that it is also coming at new all-time high like Nifty.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should again open for comparable 7900 levels. It has spent three days on 7900 levels. A pull back at least is in waiting but it has not come yet. I still believe that 7940 will act as stiff trading resistance. We may have good trading support at 7860 which is little far from here. If it breaks 7860 then only we can expect some meaningful pullback today.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is now above 1992 and closed on new all-time high. This is straight 90 points jump in just eleven trading sessions. This is too much for now. Although it is a breakout but it is heavily over bought on charts now. It deserves a pullback and it should come any moment now. It is equally true that final top will be in the range 2050 and that move should start after a correction. Right now, S&P may plan to test psychological 2000 marks. A correction is in waiting…!!!

22 August 2014: Stock Analysis for intraday trading - TATASTEEL + M&M + BPCL

TATASTEEL (536.60)

Buy above 542/ SL 539/Target-548-552 || Sell below 533/ SL 536/ Target 524-520

M&M (1376.80)

Buy above 1383/ SL 1376/ Target 1400 || Sell below 1370/ SL 1378/Target 1350-1340.

BPCL (685.40)

Buy above 690/ SL 685/ Target 702-710 || Sell below 680/ SL 685 / Target - 670

21 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Wolfe wave sell signal emerging @ 7920+ on Nifty and Tom Demark strong sell signal emerging in US indices. I will favour to be bearish from today onwards for mini-pullback, pullback or selling.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 August 2014: -

On 20 August 2014, FII Bought INR 251.36 crs and DII Sold INR 481.37 crs

I have already given a figure of 7920 for exit my longs. I am yet to load shorts in the market. I have strongly advised traders yesterday for avoiding buying. Well, why only at 7920? This must be big question in traders mind. Have a look on given snap shot. It is showing how Wolfe wave works. I am just not giving marking as 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 as I keep those for Elliott wave but many technicians do so.

It is the extension of 1-3-5 or a-c-e as supply line. Bulls get tired on supply line and they may just fail to give a break on higher side or push on higher side. It will just cross and then dip. I am expecting that break to be tested today and the levels will be 7920.

Wolfe wave works well as it is the reaction of market equilibrium mode. My only concern is that this pattern is rarely seen on all-time high. It is generally emerges after at least one market top. Still, traders need to be flexible. I am giving over all view that top may be near for almost every global indices. Although it may be taken first has pullback only. No harm, I am also taking in same way.

S&P 500 (US) added a few more set of Tom Demark ‘sell’ signal near 1985-1990 ranges.

For today’s session, we will see a higher opening and then I will plan to test for short based on Wolfe wave formation on Indian market. I favour to add short on S&P 500 now based on Tom Demark sell signal.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should open higher near 7900 levels. I am now planning to test shorts now so I would definitely like to see higher opening in bears favour. I must say that I have not yet added shorts. It would be great if I get those in the zone of 7920. Take 7940 as rock hard resistance and market will be ready for a pullback now which can convert later in to selling. As of now, add soft shorting.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is still heading towards 1990 as said yesterday. It hit a high at 1888+ and closed on stronger note. I am already saying that we may have on pullback or mini pullback in this zone now. Today will be eleventh day form the low of 1904. We have already seen 84 points of rise in just 10 trading sessions. This is heavily overbought now. I am still not saying for shorting but avoid buying for sure. I still believe for a move above 2000 marks but first a pullback must come now.

21 August 2014 : Three free stock chart of the day : ABIRLANUVO + ARVIND + SAIL

ABIRLANUVO (1529.25)
BUY ABOVE 1540/SL 1525/ TARGET 1570-1580 || SELL BELOW 1515/SL 1525/ TARGET 1490

ARVIND (251.80)
BUY ABOVE 252/SL 249/ TARGET 260|| SELL BELOW 248/SL 251/ TARGET 242

SAIL (86.60)
BUY ABOVE 88/ SL 87/ TARGET 90 || SELL BELOW 85.95/SL 86.70/ TARGET 83-82

20 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today is eighth day from 7540. Rally can extend till Friday if we manage to see a positive close for today. Greedy top may come close to 8000 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 August 2014: -

On 19 August 2014, FII Bought INR 559.39 crs and DII Sold INR 263.37 crs

It was silent trading session yesterday with a hit on one my mentioned levels. It was said yesterday that it may hit levels like 7920-7950-8000. We saw resistance at 7920. It was nothing but a trend line resistance as marked in the given chart. Most noticeable thing is that we are on eighth trading day from 7540 levels. It is one sided rise. Most promising will be if we see a positive close today. If this occurs then we have a scope to see rally till Friday and even 8000 levels will come till that time.

I must say that from now onwards it is compulsion to see Nifty closing above 7920 then only we can see comfort. Dip from 7920 will not good and favourable for market. In we have many reverse H&S pattern emerges on many stock charts. This shows that even if pullback comes it will be bought from lower levels. This kind of pattern has seen in many banking stocks.

For today’s session, we will see a silent opening. Immediate trading support will emerge at 7880 and then at 7850. Big question now for traders it that can we able to see trade above 7920 on eighth day of the rally. I need to add word of caution for the day.

We are seeing participation in mid cap and small cap stocks too which shows that market is in greedy mode now. If this is right then as per time cycle we may get a short term top at 7920 or 7950 or 8000 at the max.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should open higher near 7900 levels. It did nothing great in last trading session. Even for today’s trading session my condition remains same. If we can spend time above 7920 -7925 then we can expect short covering rise before forming a short term top. Trading support is at 7800. Exit from long if it breaks 7880.

S&P 500 (USA) – As suggested in the road map, S&P is heading towards 1990+ levels. I need to conclude one thing that this tie it will not only test the psychological levels of 2000 but it may also head for 2025-2040 levels which was many brokerages target of the year end. At some point we need to be cautious. Out call ratio is showing the excessive people trading for long now. 60 minutes chart has emerged with negative divergence. Before hitting 2000 levels, we may expect a short term pullback. Do not jump on long now. As of now, I am only saying, do not buy rise. Just wait for pullback. Book if you have long at any point in the dip. 

20 August 2014 : Three free stock chart of the day - LUPIN + PRAJ + MCDOWELL

LUPIN (1218.00)
BUY ABOVE 1221/SL 1214/ TARGET 1232-1245 || SELL BELOW 1206/SL 1214/ TARGET 1190

PRAJ IND (63.70)
BUY ABOVE 64/SL 63.10/ TARGET 67-68|| SELL BELOW 62/SL 62.80/ TARGET 61-60

MCDOWELL (2437.45)
BUY ABOVE 2440/ SL 2420/ TARGET 2470-2480 || SELL BELOW 2410 /SL 2425/ TARGET 2380

19 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is flexing its muscles for a move towards 8000 levels by this week itself. Now, 7840 will act as good trading support. Every pullback should be bought.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 August 2014: -

On 18 August 2014, FII Bought INR 473.42 crs and DII Bought INR 490.04 crs

What a great day yesterday for Indian market. We saw small gap down and then a quick follow up buying by everyone. It has narrow down its premium to confuse bulls but bulls were on top of the confidence. I also added fresh Nifty long but I was little late. Still, our buy came on Nifty August future @ 7833, a good 40 points profit.  

I discussed about diamond formation on weekly chart and that pushes its effect by Monday itself. So, as long as it is above 7840, it will be under full grips of bulls. Bears have no possible edge at one go. Technical target looks to come at or above 7920 levels. This is retrenchment based target. It’s interesting to see that blue chip stocks are raising from the day of sell off in mid cap and small cap stocks.

For today’s session, if it opens with gap up then surely it will be more bullish as there must be many nervous short to cover. From now onwards 7840 to 7800 will offer good trading support in case of profit taking. This does not mean that I am betting for profit taking. I expect Nifty to go higher levels. It may hit levels like 7920-7950-8000 levels.

In spite of those entire rise, I warned traders from buying mid cap and small cap stocks. Those charts are very ugly and certainly inviting troubles. Just deal in front line or known mid cap stocks only.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future should open higher near 7900 levels. I have a theory, when short covering is near, market tend to be more bullish after gap up and never filled those gaps easily. If this is going to be the case, then 8000 levels will come much sooner than expected. For today’s trade 7850 will act as support. Cross above 7920 will invite massive short covering or selling. That depends on condition.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said for 1975 yesterday and it came in just single day.  The way it has built the momentum it is looking like to hit 1990+ levels before the week ended. Now, technical support has shifted higher and it is well known which comes are 1956. As long as it is above 1956-1958 we can expect to break 1990+ levels. It is looking like to challenge 2000 marks also this time.

19 August 2014 : Three free stock chart of the day - ICICI BANK + BANK INDIA + RCF

BANKINDIA (279.15)
BUY ABOVE 282.50/SL 280/ TARGET 286-290 || SELL BELOW 276/SL 278/ TARGET 272-270

ICICIBANK (1530.70)
BUY ABOVE 1532/SL 1518/ TARGET 1560 || SELL BELOW 1515 /SL 1522/ TARGET 1500

RCF (59.95)
BUY ABOVE 60.10/ SL 59.50/ TARGET 62-63 || SELL BELOW 58.80 /SL 59.40/ TARGET 58-57

18 August 2014 : Nifty weekly analysis for 18 August 2014 to 22 August 2014

Well, big question is - Are we in wave '5'? I can see a diamond formation which is a characteristic of wave '4'. If this comes true then 8500 +++ levels are in the race for bulls. That's one prospect.

Other is, if this market fails again before 7841 then this diamond formation go in favour of bears.

Note that diamond formations are just the indication of 'move of length comparable to diagonal'. It can go in any direction with possibility 50-50.

18 August 2014 : Three free stock analysis for the day : RANBAXY+ACC+IVRCL

RANBAXY (602.75)
SELL BELOW 596/ SL 600/ TARGET 588|| BUY ABOVE 604/ SL 602/ TARGET 612

ACC (1480.85)
SELL BELOW 1474/ SL 1480/ TARGET 1465-1458|| BUY ABOVE 1485/ SL 1479/ TARGET 1500-1520

IVRCLINFRA (18.20) - long term
SELL BELOW 17.00-17.50/ TARGET 12-10|| BUY ABOVE ______________xxx

18 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Today will be bearish day if it fails to fills the morning gap down. Crucial resistance will be 7800 and 7840. Trading support = 7760 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 August 2014: -

On 14 August 2014, FII Bought INR 625.18 crs and DII Bought INR 135.75 crs

Indian market went higher in the last week of trade on the hope of some block buster announcement on Independence Day by prime minister. We got an energetic populist speech by prime minster but it has those key missing which market would have wanted. In fact, I can say that Indian market were very unfair in their expectations. It may lead some cooling off activity today in opening minutes.

Technical charts are again showing sluggish behaviour near 7800 levels which it has done three times in past. If I have an option to buy from 7800 then I would just prefer to wait for the market to take out 7840 resistance levels.

For today’s session, if it fails to fill its gap down then it will be bearish for the day. Technical resistance will come in the zone of 7800 to 7840 levels and it cannot be easy to long this zone. So, I am concluding that trading move depends on gap down. Do not keep hope from this week. Traders must and must avoid mid cap stocks from any kind of buying, stock picking, catching falling knife or value buying. If Nifty breaks 7750 then we can see this market sliding again.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open negative near 7780. Suppose if it breaks 7765 then we can see fall. Well, 7765 is a good technical support too. One can think to short only if it breaks 7765 levels. If not, then it can bounce too. On higher side it will have resistance at 7810 levels. Final crossover of 7810 may add further up move towards 7850 levels too but this situation is not likely to come at least in first half.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P is still in the striking distance form 1956-1958 levels. It is likely to see that every dip will be bought be bulls.  Technically, we can still expect this move to go higher from current levels too. So far, we have not seen any sign of weakness yet. Now, a well-defined resistance of 1945 will act as good trading support. As long as it holds above 1945 we can expect move grinding higher only. Will it test 1975 again? Yes, it can. 

14 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical charts are still saying support at 7690-7680 levels but mid cap and small cap indices got sold with heavy alarm. This market is again sell on rise now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 14 August 2014: -

On 13 August 2014, FII Bought INR 718.27 crs and DII Bought INR 22.03 crs

Before beginning have a look on different indices. Nifty – up 0.16%, NIFTYMIDCAP – down 2.37%, CNX SMALLCAP – down 3.34%.

Above phenomenon is always alarming if it comes near all-time high on long term blue chip indices chart. We have strong possibility of bear attack on Nifty anytime at higher levels. Take a note that as long as Nifty is above 7680 it will be very difficult to present any view for profit taking just based on Nifty chart. If I am advising selling at higher levels, then it is derived from other indices chart.

It is almost clear that one should not try to catch the falling knife on mid cap and small cap indices. JPASSOCIAT slipped from 90 to 51 levels. Yesterday, it slipped over 9%. IBREAEST slipped from 110 to 62, yesterday it slipped near 9%. These are the example which we have predicted for shorts. List is even bigger. One should try to understand the psychology of the market.

“Fall in mid cap says that now investors are not able to find value in market and hence switching their money in front line or defensive stocks. This also says that top is very near.”

For today’s session, I am expecting a flat to soft opening but it will find itself difficult to cross above 7760 levels. I am again saying that 7690 levels will have good trading support. Once it close below 7690-7680 levels then we can confirm for fresh wave of down side.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open on flat note near 7740 levels which is definitely against broader market message. We have stiff trading resistance at 7780 levels. Technical support will come at 7700 to 7690 levels. Once it breaks below 7690 then we can expect for the retest of 7550 levels. Today it last trading day of the week.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed above 1945 and looks to extend little more from here. Now it is well 20 points away from its crucial support of 1925. So far, this move is looking to extend towards 1958 levels. What I can conclude form chart is that we are seeing short covering rise above 1925. There is no sign of weakness yet. Whenever next round of sell off begin it will take out 1900 levels this time. Be cautious of any higher levels near 1958 or just before. 

13 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: IIP and CPI inflation shocker may give some soft opening. As long as it is above 7680 it holds scope for the formation of fresh up wave. One intraday correction is possible (with support @ 7680) !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 August 2014: -

On 12 August 2014, FII Bought INR 370.83 crs and DII Sold INR 39.78 crs

June IIP came at 3.40% again 5.0% last month which is much below market estimate of 5.80%. On other hand July CPI came at 7.96% against expected 7.40%. So, practically both these figures are bad for market. Will it be rally bad?

I give importance to 20 DMA and 50 DMA and their respective slopes. From current levels of 7727 on Nifty, even 50 points dip may also go for recovery from bottom. It has generated desired momentum again. Above bad data may give us levels of 7700 or nearer in opening minutes. It is almost 200 points from bottom of 7540 and so we need one pullback which may come today but that also is a conditional move.

What has happened in past few days? We saw a dip below 50 DMA and then formation of hammer pattern to invite rise. Then we have two strong gap up back to back. This gave us bullish view with momentum. It should be like bulls will buy every dip.

For today’s session, I may opt to buy dip as long as it holds above 7680 levels. Remember, if this momentum sustain then it is confirming short term and intermediate trend as up again. Can it break 7840 again? I cannot deny. It has one resistance at 7750 and then at 7800 before 7841. Strong support will be at 7680 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open soft with negative 20 points as suggested by SGX Nifty. 20 points down does not mean anything. It is good so far. As long as it is above 7700 we cannot name it any meaningful dip. I want to buy dip but my stop cannot be below 7690. If I get it near 7710 then I will consider buying. Below 7690, it can retrace many part of past two days of rise.   

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P closed negative but mostly remains dull on chart. S&P chart is not like Nifty which used to get many gap in opening. Technically 1945 is a resistance and 1925 is technical support. Now, we need to see few minutes’ trade below 1925 to see another drag towards 1910-1900 odd levels. As long as it is above 1925 I can say that it is favouring bulls. 

12 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A bounce from 50 DMA is giving a possibility for a move towards 20 DMA, i.e. towards 7680 levels. Trading support = 7616 to 7593.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 August 2014: -

On 11 August 2014, FII Sold INR 162.92 crs and DII Bought INR 234.41 crs

We got gap down on one day and next day we got gap up. These are just cannot easy to conclude as gap are wild thing. There is just one strong point that we have – gaps are usually a symbol of primary trend in the same direction. So one day it was down and next day it was up. Now, I am focusing on follow up of trades. As long as it is above 7609 I can say that it is near to the strong support area.

Now 50 DMA is at 7616 and 20 DMA is 7680. Best, trading direction on Nifty always comes when it stand above both these moving average. Trades in between 50 DMA and 20 DMA is not easier. Although I believe that it can see a move towards 20 DMA. We need to take a note that this bounce has just started from 50 DMA support so it is still early stage. If this bounce is going to sustain then we may see the conversion of another rally. One should never short index in this kind of formation.

Yesterday, we saw the meaning on hammer pattern. Yesterday’s low was also higher than Friday’s high. Another important point is that we saw a good short covering move in last 30 minutes of trade.

For today’s session, I am expecting some higher opening. It will not be easy if it comes directly at 7680. Depending on gap up one should to trade long in intraday dip as long as it is saving 7616 levels. It is not going to be as simple as I am writing. Range to watch will be 7615 to 7680 for any direction. It is favouring up and bullish move as of now.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open positive 35-40 points as indicated by SGX Nifty. So will it be second gap up the row? If this happens then do not act in opening hour. It can be only meaningful if you buy a dip rather than these ride. My expected target can be at 7700 or higher but buy point must be reasonable.  

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P came tall with a bounce from 1910 to 1945 levels. After hitting 1945 it slipped in second half. 1945 is also a point where earlier it made a life time high and corrected. So, it is a meaningful resistance. Has it formed any fresh sign of weakness? As long as we are getting positive close we cannot say any weakness yet. From 1945 to 1935 is just a typical dip which may be bought by market. 

11 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We have ‘Hammer pattern’ on daily chart. It is showing for potential 1-2-3 days trend reversal but confirmation point will be at 7610/target = 7700. Technical support – 7540-7500!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 August 2014: -

On 08 August 2014, FII Sold INR 503.74 crs and DII Bought INR 456.02 crs

We saw a wild gap down on Friday session. Has it left anything great for traders? It seems not and hence I prefer to be inactive. The most interesting fact is that it formed a ‘trend reversal hammer pattern’ on daily chart. We have few interesting points. First is that hammer pattern shows for rise above 7593, which is a point of reversal in previous dip. Second is that we have 50 DMA at 7609 levels. So, the area of above 7590 to 7610.  

Once again, we have strong global cues after a hammer pattern which is hinting for some higher gap opening. If higher opening and positive trades takes market above 7610 then we will see a fresh wave of rise. I must say that I am not betting that Indian market can move with global market. In spite of hammer pattern I like to see reaction at 7610 as make or break levels.

For today’s session, I am expecting some higher opening. It can be near to 7600 levels. Avoid first hour trade if flip – flop trades goes at 7600 as those will turn as 50-50 deal. We are in wild Geo-political situation where things can go wrong easily. Well, but above 7610, it should be bullish.

I will update about supports in my intraday updates. I will get better idea of sell-off during hour itself. Will sold near 7610 again or will it revive to take a move towards 7700?

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open positive 20-30 points. Immediate resistance zone will comes at 7640 to 7655 after opening. 15 points is still bigger range for resistance. Can it fail at 7655? Well, if it fails then it will fail brutally and it will invite negative opening. It will be safer to be long above 7655 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P has bounced from over sold zone. It is a definite shocker me too as I was not expecting so easy sailing above 1925. Well, but it did and pushed bears back again for the time being. As long as it is above 1925 area, it will try to recover. We know that whenever US marker makes this kind of pattern then it advances move. So, one more positive will invite hard core bulls to play their cards. Technical support will be as follow – 1925 > 1910 > 1900

08 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty hourly chart has ‘ending diagonal pattern’ and now adding H&S pattern. Key support will be in 7600-7590 area but breakdown is likely. Expect stiff resistance at 7709 now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 August 2014: -

On 07 August 2014, FII Bought INR 73.07 crs and DII Bought INR 228.99 crs

What a wild trading session we had yesterday. I find it suitable to avoid. Ending diagonal pattern has taken its grip over clarity. If one goes through hourly chart then one can sense that NIFTY has formed H&P pattern too. This is something which should be concerning now. Nifty has closed below 7650 with a wild swing in between. High of 7709 was in accordance with wave theory.

I still believe that it has support at 7593 levels. It is still far by more than 50 points. Now, support if it hit 7593 then H&S pattern will on full effect. If I include all patterns then I see a possibility of dip on nifty towards or below 7422 levels. Yesterday’ high of 7709 will act as stiff trading resistance as of now. I like to add a warning on mid cap and small cap buying by investors. Have a look where Indian rupee is swinging now. It’s beyond 61 levels. Do not believe anything blindly.

For today’s session, I am expecting some lower opening. If it give up and start trading below 7640 then we may see concerning dip towards 7593 levels. Remember that mid cap and small cap indices are under performing. Sell off may continue and we should be on hurry to pick support. Let us see.  

NIFTY 50 DMA comes at 7602. So, we may get strong support in 7600 area but problems will be bigger for traders if one wants to trade long.

I will update about supports in my intraday updates. I will get better idea of sell-off during hour itself. Will be give break below 7640 and sustain to hit 7593? Will it hit 7540-7500 by today itself?

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open negative to 20 points. It will get immediate support at 7650 to 7640 levels. We may see interesting and concerning dip if it sustain below 7655 levels. On higher side 7700 to 7715 will act as stiff resistance. I suggest shorting on weakness. If it sustain below 7650 then we can get immediate selling of 50-60 points.

S&P 500 (USA) – So, a final close below 1910 came and all that happened when futures were indicating higher when Indian market were trading. Have we realized that US indices are almost at 3 months low? Yes, and I see no possibility of any sign of pull back either so far. Take a note that it came as we have not seen any dip in May month. Expect some pause at 1899 and 1875. It is still a summer sell off for US market.