You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 28 August 2014: -
On 28 August 2014, FII Sold INR 710.63 crs and DII Bought INR
730.43 crs
We got some crucial GDP data on weekend which was in line
with expectations. There were some talks which has suggested for a possibility
of rate cut next year although this is still a speculation so far. News flow
has boosted the sentiments so far.
Derivative expiry was little dull which was also in line with
my expectation. So far, there is no exact hint for top but we may be close to a
top before correction. Nifty has resistance at 7970. Crossover may add a move
towards 8000 levels. We are in September month which is usually bad for equity.
Elliott wave chart is hinting for top either at 8000 or at
8132. Market may pick anyone of these figures. If it has to pick later one then
we may have more steam to go up. If it has to pick first one then this market
may trap bulls at high.
We have already seen bleeding mid cap and small cap indices
which is suggesting for a limited upside above 8000 levels. It is interesting
and technically an important week.
For today’s trading it will open higher as suggested by SGX
Nifty. DO not buy this gap up. It should fill this gap in coming days. We have
many gaps up in past few days and we are trading alarmingly higher than moving
average supports. One can easily say a strong buy on speculative long trades
but those are beyond technical alarms. What looks easy may not necessarily be a
trade.
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Strategy for Nifty September
future – Nifty September
future may open above 8020 levels which may be highest levels of life time on
Nifty spot. Once it takes gap up then there will be nothing left to buy more. Fibonacci
technical resistance will comes at 8045 levels which should be equivalent to
8000 levels on Nifty.
S&P 500 (USA) – Is it hint for top? Yes, whatever
has to come this week will be best figure for the rest of the year 2014. In my
view, maximum permissible top should not be more beyond 2020. Current formation
is more like November 2008, March 2009 as well as September October 2002. It is
a very known fact that US indices used to fall every time after end of QE. We
have some good confirmation that DAX has already topped out with its last leg
of pullback rally before fall. September is usually a bad month for equity. I
expect rise in gold price and fall in equity price.
One liner conclusion is – A major top will emerge this week
itself and then afterward we will not see that figure in September, October,
November and December2014. As of now, DAX is giving target of 8000. I say, do
not trade. Hold shorts with patience for little long time. Monday is holiday
for US market.
