30 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Gap down will take out 5800 in opening minute. We may see levels near 5700 also. It may refuse to give easy recovery as it has broken 200 DMA just now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 September 2013: -

On 27 September 2013, FII Sold INR 244.95 crs and DII Sold INR 115.27 crs

It does not matter what good reason we pick but if charts are not favouring then it is just difficult to stand with a trend. I give up my entire long on Friday. No harm in accepting that I booked loss in few positions. I was getting a fear that if Nifty breaks 5800 by any chance on Monday morning then we might be under trouble. It was mentioned on my intraday updates too.

Concerns were visible on Daily charts. RSI was giving low to low negative divergence. MACD is just turning to sell side. I must regret why I have not added short. It was not only technical indicators but also charting patterns which gave sell. It is almost an H&S pattern with n- line at 5800 levels. It has given scary targets. US market took a dip on Friday night and right now US futures are on bleeding. I will add more about S&P in mast paragraph.

Technical charts are giving for target near 5700 once it breaks 5800 which is looking very obvious this morning. Recovery may not be easy. It may fill up the gap Up which was formed between 06 September 2013 to 10^th September 2013. I will update about those in my intraday updates. Take a note that I have added long on gold for short term which may give me gain.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely open down with a gap of 70 points as indicated by SGX NIFTY. It means that it will open somewhere near to 5820-5800 levels. Next important support can be at 5760 only. We may get intermediate support at 5800 also. I always say that it can never be easy to conclude anything if gaps are coming.

S&P 500 – When I was assuming support at 1690, Friday’s trade has shocked me. I booked my long well in advance before it could make any big damage. Damage is about to come now. I cannot say that it can hurt in time parameter as bounce will come sooner. Worry is that it can hurt in price terms. I am expecting S&P 500 to come somewhere near to 1670. I am expecting recovery from low but there is no great visible sign as of now. Let us see today’s trade to conclude.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

27 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: One should buy the dip as long as 5800 holds. It may not be today but we may see crossover of crucial 5940 sometime next week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 September 2013: -

On 26 September 2013, FII Bought INR 172.15 crs and DII Sold INR 362.11 crs

I was expecting expiry near 5900 levels although my ambition was to see Nifty near or above 5940. I consider this as muted expiry with good hopes for October month series. There is no real big threat in terms of events. Market may try to focus on upcoming quarterly earning which is obviously going to be bad one. I feel that market is discounting those.

I am not seeing US debt woes as real concern. It can be and it will be solved by very last seconds. It looks like whole world is learning Indian culture.

Technical charts are suggesting that the band of 5800 and 5940 will decide next directional wave. It is giving edge to no one. That is the reason that I wanted the crossover of 5940. Note that volatility may continue in this range unless it moved out in this range in real term.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future is likely open flat but support should emerge at 5900 levels. I must say that Nifty future will not trade with premium of 60-70 points for longer. We already took our profit yesterday and decided to go with no position on Nifty Futures. It is very likely to see a premium dip of 25-30 points. So my next levels to pick Nifty October Future will be near or below 5900. We may get good trading support at 5870.

S&P 500 – I am keeping my analysis same and withstanding with the call for the bounce. It must be noted that 1690 has not broken yet. It may take some time but it has bright chance of hitting levels near 1730. I feel that things will be good, smooth and clear for next week. I must add that one should not get scared by US debt woes. It is not a real worry, it is just a worry created by political fronts. Problem will be solved till last seconds.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bulls were about to lose hope but 5800 (100 SMA@5818) saved and bounce came. A possible reversal pattern coming? Confirmation will come only above 5940.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 September 2013: -

On 25 September 2013, FII Bought INR 382.45 crs and DII Sold INR 473.28 crs

This is going to be interesting derivative expiry now. How many times we saw a month where Nifty took a run up of 1000 points? It is very rare and that’s the reason this is wild now. Even 5800 look painful for bulls but charting is not as bad. Due to wild ranges, we can expect another volatile day. I need to be honest with my feeling. Every time 5900 levels give a confusion of up or down. If you think minutely then you will find that from last many months we are moving here and there near 5900 only except few months. If we go higher above 5900, it gave sell off in just few weeks. If it slipped below 5900 then also we saw good bounce from low.

It is like Indian market is really doing nothing on broader sense. I strongly believe that something must happen now. I am buying stocks of my choice.

Asian markets are trading lower on US debt woes. This is not making any sense. US economy will exhausted with cash by 17 October 2013. Does not matter, they will handle it. This should be concern as US long term bond yield is still running lower.  

Technical charts are still saying that 5850 to 5800 range should be good support. Have a look on chart to see how moving averages are saving the fall in the market. Is short covering coming? Let us see.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat but support should emerge at 5850 and 5815 levels. We should not see this expiry closing below 5910 levels. If it manages to give expiry above 5910 with good long rollover in October then it will give bright hope for coming week. I am still saying that it is just 50-50 bet near expiry this time.

S&P 500 – When I say to book short near 1700 I suspected about this. I dull move in the range of 1690 to 1710. It is very close to 1690 but not broken yet. As long as 1690 holds, I will hope for a short term bottom coming. Let the bounce come then only we can work on some targets on higher side. If it breaks below 1690 then we need to rethink about rebound call. I still feel that rebound will come irrespective of levels.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support remains at 5850 to arrest the fall. We need a decisive break above 5940 to claim anything good for the days to come. Expiry effect will add volatility!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 September 2013: -

On 24 September 2013, FII Sold INR 21.09 crs and DII Sold INR 493.74 crs

Money flow is not bad so far. Typically FII remains net seller as well as DII. It is not giving any great sense about market. These are giving a sense of confused money flow which remains a characteristic of year 2013. We are moving towards derivative expiry and I am expecting some wild moves.

We got some shameful development on corporate governance issue which was definitely expected. This time it is Financial Technology where auditors inform that last earning numbers are not reliable. We are used to get this kind of one such news in every 6-8 years. This is damaging the image of Indian corporates.

Let us look at technical charts. I have said yesterday to look for band support which is at 5850. Nifty hit at 5855 and rebounded very sharply. Well, it has not closed the way I was anticipating. It gave up most of its gain in noon trades.

I have added yesterday that we may see some unpredictable movement in market due to expiry effect. Perhaps, yesterday’s selling from higher levels was the part of those unpredictable movement. Even for today’s session, technical support will be at 5850 levels only. On higher side, we need to surpass the levels of 5940 to claim good and reliable upside. Let us see what comes for the day.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat but support should emerge at 5870 levels. This remains same as of yesterday. Big question is that will it able to cross 5970. The 100 points band from 5870 to 5970 is just going to be too wild. It needs to move out from this range to take a decisive move. I like to remind that 5900 ranges on Nifty always go in this way. Before expiry, it will be 50-50 bet.

S&P 500 – It is not looking simple recovery. I still hope for recovery. It should not break 1690 and we should see the beginning of newer move on higher side. It may for a short term bottom. If this bottom comes around 1690 then it may generate a possibility to hit towards 1730 again. Let us see today if rebound comes without breaking 1690.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support may emerge at 5850 to arrest the fall. Any break below 5850-5840 will open a newer lower range for trading. Do not be very active near expiry!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 September 2013: -

On 23 September 2013, FII Sold INR 80.57 crs and DII Sold INR 745.88 crs

FII bought two gaps up days very heavily but they fail to give support to their decision of buying higher levels. This is typical moves by them in recent month. We are just few days away from derivative expiry now. Remember, so far this is highly broad month for trading and hence options set up is looking wild. I feel that right now technical may go at back foot. Do not worry; I feel no harm in accepting the truth. There is two way reading for charts.

First way is, if I assume that Nifty extended its gain in a band then support should emerge at 5850 to hold this up trend. Bulls must give their best now. This view is very clear and easily visible on charts without any great confusion. Note that 200 DMA is at 5840 right now which is going to support the band.

Second way is more complex. Due to broad series so far, many wild options are still open. It is showing for the range of 6200 to 5600 which is just too big to believe. Note that this month Nifty has a range of more than 1000 points. This is not the only concern; we have too many wild gap up and gap down in this series. This is definitely going to make things complex and wild. Only time can answer how wild this can be.

Text book target based on wave theory is that we may see 5700 levels sooner or later. If it comes on expiry day then I will not be shocked. So we are at 5900 with possibility of 5700 and a bounce from 5850 as well. I may be in better condition to add more during trading hours.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat but trading scope may be wild. There is one guarantee that we will see extremely volatile week again. Leave trades if you are light hearted. There is a technical support at 5870 which may result a trading bounce. This bounce can be wild and big. This may be due to RSI positive divergence which is on the beginning stage on hourly chart and visible on 15 min chart.   

S&P 500 – I had a view for a move towards 1710 then 1700 and then 1690. We got low at 1697. I suggested booking short near 1700 only. Still, I am expecting the test of 1690 but those may be complex and choppy moves. So, I am deciding to go on wait and watch mode again. Oscillation between 1710 to 1690 is the only possibility and you cannot enjoy this kind of moves.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is going to be weak but do not underestimate the power of volatility which will be last winner. Key support for Nifty is at 5930 and 5800 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 September 2013: -

On 20 September 2013, FII Bought INR 945.76 crs and DII Sold INR 790.22 crs

After buying more than 3500 crs on Thursday, FIIs bought 945 crs again. I have already said that most of the time FIIs used to buy heavily near short term top. It is looking like we got short term top at 6142 on Thursday only. The bad news is that even US market is looking like topping out. I have already updated on Friday night that 1730 may remain a top. It slipped later on. I am giving more about S&P 500 in the last paragraph. .  

One more thing I need to add. RBI monetary policy has given a shock to the market. I rather say that Dr. Raghuram Rajan has washed out Ben Barnanke’s effect. Truly, it was a shock for me too. You cannot predict policy makes. Although, I was sensing that something is coming to disappoint the market as it was reflecting on chart. Personally, I have high hope on Dr. Raghuram Rajan so I will prefer to listen his ideas in next monetary policy too.

I have already said that we might be on the end point of fifth wave. This end point is raising a possibility of some remarkable correction this week. Unfortunately, this structure is coming on derivative expiry week. I can say for two important threshold points, one is at 5930 and other is at 5800. Break of 5930 will result a move towards 5800. Further break may result panic fall. On higher side 6100 and 6142 will be tougher resistance to cross. Things will definitely not going to be as simple as I am writing.

I am not saying if I am heavily bearish or mildly bearish. I am just on the right point to be bearish. Rests are reserved for subscribers. 

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open down as it should be under the effect of weak US market closing on Friday night. It is likely to test 5950. If it breaks 5950 then we may expect panic selling towards 5800. There is one guarantee that we will see extremely volatile week again. Leave trades if you are light hearted.  

S&P 500 – I said for 1710 as threshold point for fall on Friday. I found some interesting development and informed traders to short when it was mild negative to flat. Later on it has seen a close at 1710. What a day it was!!! Now my expect is that S&P 500 will go for the test of 1690 too. If one believes that every newer high is break out then tell me one thing, when and how market falls?  

This may not be the breakout or a breakout to misguide bulls. Better to say that it is not a ‘technical breakout’, it is a ‘Ben break out’.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

20 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: All eyes are on new RBI governor. Will he give more rises or a final top? Resistance is at 6160 and support @ 6040 for Nifty. Expect another wild session.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 September 2013: -

On 19 September 2013, FII Bought INR 3543.84 crs and DII Sold INR 1829.72 crs

Look at above buy figure by FII. This is called a typical FII buy near top. Do you remember that when Nifty was near 5200 they were selling massively? I can only say ‘best of luck’ to those FII.

Now, let us talk about today’s monetary policy. I can say that Dr. Raghuram Rajan is most lucky man on earth right now. He became RBI governor 15 days back and most of his so called challenges are automatically solved. Indian rupee appreciated by 10% or more and all of a sudden from nowhere fed chairman Ben Barnanke changes his mood on tapering.

Now question is will he deliver today what market wants and expects. I feel that this is probably the best time to be brave and focus on ‘growth’ which was just second priority in past many years. RBI governor has to give something for growth.

If 6100 on Nifty came so fast then main reason is that market is strongly expecting that current RBI governor will give something positive on this monetary policy. It is only expectations and hopes which has changed in past 16 trading sessions. Rest other factors remains same. I am not expecting repo rate cut. I am expecting that he will remove those restrictions which former RBI governor put to give strength to Indian rupee. He is supposed to remove restriction on CRR too.

Technically, this rise has almost over done by 100-150 points what I had expected. My wave analysis is suggesting that we are in final stage of fifth rising wave. We have high possibility that RBI may give final top of the market. Government of India of got garden of opportunity to control its fiscal deficit. I need to be clearer; we have three months to do. Now, coming three months will decide the fate of Indian economy.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat. All eyes are on RBI policy. I feel that market has discounted most positive by RBI to come. I can able to quote only one level. If it breaks 6060 in the downside then only we can see some decisive pullback. If not then also it will see pullback from higher levels. One need to note that we are going to see derivative expiry next week.

S&P 500 – A pause at 1730 is generating challenging hourly pattern. It is too early to say for final top but here we have possibility to address this as final top. I can able to get confirmation if it closes below 1710 without giving 1730 in reality. I am not overexcited with fed move.

I am not comfortable to say that pullback will not come. It should come and it will come. Only question is when and from which point.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

19 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Ben Barnanke said for no stimulus cut. It means ‘no tapering’. He makes me a big fool. Nifty can possibly hit 6067-6100 and Indian rupee to come at 61-60.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 September 2013: -

On 18 September 2013, FII Bought INR 580.13 crs and DII Sold INR 508.41 crs

Ben Barnanke has behaved like god. Last night, he took a complete “U turn”. He said for stimulus to continue as economy data has not improved yet. Now, when he is saying that economy data has not improved we need to note that data is better than the time when he spoke about rollback of stimulus.

He makes majority of market man fool. Surely, I am also one such who went wrong. In fact, I always fail to predict Ben Barnanke’s views. He always turned the table of majority. When one man in the world has this much power then we cannot do much except waiting for his decisions.

The next question – When will Fed begin tapering? They will decide by October end or December. Now I have a doubt. Can they afford tapering? How long can Fed continue like this. I cannot be sure for equity price to stay higher but Gold is surely going to move higher.

India is at a place where it should feel big relief although we have our own domestic challenges. With one fed decision many problem has solved for India, like currency will appreciate, scope of rate cut by banks to handle growth. It is looking like best time for RBI to grasp opportunity. I mean that RBI should opt for rate cut in tomorrow’s RBI policy but I am not ready to take a call.

Market will take forth wild gap up and banking stocks will be way higher to catch. I am giving the reading of gap ups. One must note.

First is from 5545 to 5554 on 05^th September 2013

Second is from 5674 to 5738 on 10^th September 2013

Third is from 5846 to 5930 on 16^th September 2013

Forth is coming now 5910 to perhaps 6050+ on 19^th September 2013

Technical analysis has no meaning after this kind of gap up. I can quote technical resistance which is at 6067 and 6100. Let us see what is going to happen after gap up. I have only one call which is long on Gold where I can enjoy (Note – my long were advisable in dollar from 1300). I have small shorts too in stocks where I am trapped. Definitely, I have not yet shorted banks so I am not worried much. Equally, I may prefer to short this gap up heavily if I get technical sell. I bought 5300 to 5200 in fall where everyone was bearish. Now at 6000 to 6100 if most people would be bullish then I will short.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely to near 6100 levels crushing all bears. Is it really going to crush all bears or will it invite bears. Only time can answer. It is better to see opening. I doubt that it will open this much higher which SGX Nifty is showing. Banking stocks will be on big big fire to save any fall.

S&P 500 – I give up to Ben Barnanke. I shocked me to my wildest extent. Thanks god that I waited for the break of 1690 to add short which never came. I must warn that a big negative divergence is running on chart but it is too far from break point. Above 1726, S&P will hit 1740-1745 too. It is now almost 100 points from 30^th August 2013 low’s of 1627. Too big and too rapid.

Break point for intraday will be either at 1726 or at 1710. As long as it is above 1710, there may not be scope for bears.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has logical importance of 5800 for bears. As long as it holds, do not add fresh short. Wait for what Fed is going to say.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 September 2013: -

On 17 September 2013, FII Bought INR 318.05 crs and DII Sold INR 501.19 crs

I have said for the support at 5800. I was decided that as long as it hold 5800 I will not short. My waiting never ends yesterday. I closed my day without any trade. I still have same view. As long as 5800 hold, one should wait for direction. I prefer to see fed outcome first. My takes on Fed meeting is very odd and disturbing.  

“Fed is not only going to begin tapering but also they may throw surprises on monetary tightening front”.

Forecasting market is beyond the scope of charting right now as it is going to see big impact of event. Asian market is not on nervous note like yesterday. Still I do not want to add any excessive pessimism in my thought. I like to see a rising market but such chances are less.

About India Rupee also, I believe that sweeter days are almost over again. We may see the beginning of some inherent weakness. My first logical target is at 65.00-65.30. This may also be related to Fed outcome only. I just like to remain that we have RBI monetary policy review on 20 September 2013.     

Nothing looks great to apply on technical analysis front. As long as 5800 holds, I cannot add fresh shorts. One needs to note that Nifty is just hovering near its 200 DMA. This kind of formation has a history of unpredictability. We may see some stiff resistance at 5900 levels.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely to oscillate near 5900 levels only. We may have trading resistance to emerge at 5930-5950 levels. In the down side, as long as it holds 5860 there will be no signal to short. While below 5860 we can expect 5815-5800 levels. Well, rather than trading I will focus on lower break of 5800.

S&P 500 – Final outcome of Fed meeting will come tonight and almost all global market is waiting for this desperately. US market took a pause at very uncomfortable levels and technical charts have lesser value now. It is still showing me that something will come to result a sell off. Rather than buying on breakout, I might prefer to sell on breakout. Let us see what’s coming. It is useless to touch unless we get some cues. Technical resistance is still at 1705-1710. I want to be bearish but not above 1690.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again one should watch for follow up of trades. Technical support is at 5800 and it is decisive levels. Highlight is on Ben Barnanke again !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely. (Due to some problem, I have posted my article very late today). 

For 17 September 2013: -

On 16 September 2013, FII Bought INR 282.87 crs and DII Sold INR 425.17 crs

Very few people would have expected the fall which came yesterday from higher levels. We were one such. Indian indices have surely underperformed the global indices. This is concerning as Indian market has brutal history whenever it under performed. I have already said that INR is going to see fresh weakness now.

It exactly stopped just before 5960 levels. So far, it is giving me shape for technical correction irrespective of news flow. Market is also looking nervous after WPI data. Now all eyes are on RBI’s next monetary policy review. Indian economy is in battle mode and destination cannot be changed. It is going to lose the battle. I am not expecting any improvement in economy’s fundamental.

It seems that 5957 should remain a short term top. We have crucial support at 5800 levels. Now, suppose if it sustain below 5800 for some time then we can expect a dip towards 5700 levels. From past five trading sessions it is trading close to 200 DMA only. It has a difference this time. Banking index is looking stable.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading flat at 5860 levels. Technical charts are suggesting that it can try to take technical support in the range of 5815-5800 levels. I am still short on this market from higher levels. Trading resistance will emerge at 5910 levels. Still, short term resistance should be at and above 5980 levels.

S&P 500 – I said that, “above 1690, I am forced to accept for the levels near 1705-1710”. It came in the same range and then hit a profit taking. I still cannot say with good confidence that good profit taking is coming ahead. Technical charts are suggesting that S&P 500 should not hit new all-time high. Even if it comes then also it should not extend much. Yesterday’s close came in line with my expectation. Let us see how it is going to shape up today. Hoping for break below 1690.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

16 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: “No Lawrence Summer rally” in US Future. Nifty is likely to re-test 5932 and hence resistance zone 5940-5960 comes in definition again. Will it hit 6000 or miss 6000?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 September 2013: -

On 13 September 2013, FII Sold INR 98.00 crs and DII Sold INR 152.09 crs

Treasury futures contracts rose after former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his name from consideration to be chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Speculation that Summers would be nominated and would push for the Fed’s bond-buying program to be unwound quickly had spurred declines in Treasuries. Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen is also a contender to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke when his term expires in January.

Whole global futures are enjoying massive rise on Monday morning when it was looking that rally was t its last leg. I was heavily bullish earlier and turned my position for correction after Nifty hit a high at 5942. Now it seems that market is trapping bears again and I am also one such who might be under trap. Good part is that I am shorting from good extreme high point. Still, my shorts would be down under water.  

There is practically no meaning for technical analysis if gap up comes. It is just the time to quote the resistance of 5940 to 5960 again. I cannot deny the possibility of hitting 6000 also in extreme case but it is very unlikely. Should I take out short or should I add more shorts? I feel that I should add more shorts on this rise but only on some technical signals. It is going to be challenging Monday for bears.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading at 5956 which is way higher on “No summer” rally. 5955 is previous monthly high. Surpassing 5955 may generate a possibility of 5980-6000 levels. For bears, it is very important for Nifty to stay below or go below 5955. I believe that first selling should come from USA but those markets has strong positive news flow. What can stop rally in USA, can stop India too. I said earlier, not to be panic at 5300-5200. I am saying with equal emphasis that does not be extra courageous at 5900-6000. Take this more like technical words rather than a trapped bear.

S&P 500 – I can break my head now with Lawrence Summers. I was betting on 1690 as decisive top but it is very likely to surpass that resistance with today’s gap up. This is going to be event based rise and definitely taking out comfort from bears. Well, but technical set up is just remains same. I always believe that USA market has strongest bull of the world who can save any dips.

Still I feel that charts are just advocating for a fall coming. What will bring that fall? Will today’s rise get sold at high? I like to be on wait and watch mode. Above 1690, I am forced to accept for the levels near 1705-1710.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

13 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Profit taking came before the resistance of 5940. Nifty may be topping out in current rising wave. 2.60% IIP is just saving possible Gap down only.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 September 2013: -

On 12 September 2013, FII Bought INR 930.54 crs and DII Sold INR 395.49 crs

We got better-than-expected IIP data after-market hours which came at 2.60%. Is it looking as first sign of revival in economy? Well, we saw improved car sales figures earlier. I am considering all these signals as the base effect of earlier contraction. Surely, things are not as bad as few experts were suggesting few weeks back. Equally, it is not too good to be happy. I believe that fundamentals will take much longer time to improve and those will depends on policy making decisions.

There was some development of ‘negative divergence’ on hourly RSI. It was not very strong divergence in nature. Things chance drastically on chart and we got bolder confirmation by yesterday only. It finally resulted as a top formation on Nifty. Now, Nifty may try to fill its first gap up. We have technical support at 5800 levels. I always give preference to the follow up of trades in case of every trend reversal. If it closes negative or trade negative then we have higher chance of extending this fall. Technical resistances will be above 5900 only.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading flat even after boosted IIP figures. Technical resistances will be at 5910+ levels. In the down side if it starts trading below 5820 then we can see some fresh and concerning slide. I will use rise to short indices now. Keep an eye on India VIX too which may give lead signals.  

S&P 500 – It got a top exactly at 1690. It is looking very interesting now. I cannot say that it is same weakness what I am wanting. Chances are that we topped out in USA too by yesterday only. We just need a follow up of selling or profit taking. No more levels. Just keep an eye on 1690 as resistance. If it starts spending time below 1680 then it may be sign of fresh fall. Is it coming?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

12 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical resistance is at 5940 and 5960. It may act as ‘make or break’ levels. Do not speculate, it is better to watch first for some decisive signal of reversal.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 September 2013: -

On 11 September 2013, FII Bought INR 586.50 crs and DII Sold INR 386.12 crs

I am not surprised with this kind of buy figures by FII in cash market as they used to buy heavily near top. When Nifty was near 5200, they were selling heavily. So far, bull’s intensity continues even after sharpest 15% rally of Indian history.

To be honest, I still want to be bullish but for caution I exited my entire long. I am following basic theory of this market that we should not be greedy. Nothing looks bad if we are exiting after 800 points of rise on nifty. Technical charts are saying for resistance at 5940-5960 zones which I had already mentioned yesterday too. Cross over of 5960 will generate fresh momentum. After 800 points of rise, it seems that we are almost at a newer ‘make or break’ levels. There is some development of ‘negative divergence’ on hourly RSI. It is not very strong divergence in nature yet. We still need to wait for more trading signals.  

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Strategy for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for flat to positive start as of now. Technical resistance is at 5960-5970 levels. It is equally true that crossover can give as high as 6030-6090 levels too. Suppose, if it fails then we can see decisive dip. It may break lower. We have small negative divergence on hourly chart and VIX is also not very supportive. Caution required.

S&P 500 – I was expected 1684 to 1690 once it has crossed 1660. It is exactly coming at 1690 now. We need to note that crossover of 1690 will generate the possibility of “Newer all time high”. It is not looking very comfortable on charts as MACD has big negative divergence. So far it is no trade at 1690. Just be silent and exit all long. Just like, I said earlier to exit all short at 1630.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

11 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Unbelievable rise but it may have more steam to rise but sharper rally may invite correction now. Technical resistance is at 5940 and 5960. Is it coming?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 September 2013: -

On 10 September 2013, FII Bought INR 2563.60 crs and DII Sold INR 1398.05 crs

So, in just nine trading sessions all problems have moved away from India? Well, it was coming on charts. A real super rally came as most people on street were bearish and so I was bullish. It is true that even I am shocked to see 5900+ so early. It is full 787 points run and in percentage it is 15.40%. All in just nine days. Things are sweeter than sweet.

Previously also, I have mentioned that strength in India rupee after extreme weakness will help us. INR appreciated from the levels of 68.80 and now approaching near 63. Sooner, even 62-61-60 will become reality. It is going to be interesting to see when it will start showing weakness again. A real and tough task for new RBI governor will start after that. Do not worry, so far there is no such sign.

Definitely, I was expecting only 5850 for yesterday. Rest was also a surprise for me. It is running to fast and too furious. Natural index pattern should not be like this. Remember no market can become 100% bullish or 100% bearish. Economy and stock market are bound to live with few negatives factors too.

India VIX is first one such. Even after more than 3.70% rally on NIFTY, VIX was higher by 2.70% which is a strong sign of “Caution”. Second is, almost all mid cap and small cap indices has underperformed. We have a possibility to see one day correction. It may be today. I am not very sure as correction depends on intraday development.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Just believe that we got 5900+ levels on Nifty Future when majority were talking about 4800. Recent intensity should see pause now. Technical resistance is at 5940 and then at 5960. We have chance to see profit taking from any one of those levels. I am expecting trading support to emerge at 5850 and then at 5800 levels.

S&P 500 – I was expecting 1684 and it came as a dot. More important is that it has closed near to 1684. It has moved by 57 points from its recent low of 1627. Bears must be burning but most such bearish positions were coming on fear due to possible US attack on Syria and possibility of rollback in QE. Well, charts were never such bearish. Now, I am expecting a pause at or before 1690. It has already seen a directional run up of 3.60% so far. A possible price correction may begin from 1690 if it wants.

Will the Nobel peace prize winner and president of USA Mr. Barak Obama really attack Syria? No, they cannot. Have a look on political development. Chances of this attack are easing.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar