13 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Profit taking came before the resistance of 5940. Nifty may be topping out in current rising wave. 2.60% IIP is just saving possible Gap down only.
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For 13
September 2013: -
On 12
September 2013, FII Bought INR 930.54 crs and DII Sold INR 395.49 crs
We got better-than-expected
IIP data after-market hours which came at 2.60%. Is it looking as first sign of
revival in economy? Well, we saw improved car sales figures earlier. I am
considering all these signals as the base effect of earlier contraction. Surely,
things are not as bad as few experts were suggesting few weeks back. Equally,
it is not too good to be happy. I believe that fundamentals will take much
longer time to improve and those will depends on policy making decisions.
There was
some development of ‘negative divergence’ on hourly RSI. It was not very strong
divergence in nature. Things chance drastically on chart and we got bolder
confirmation by yesterday only. It finally resulted as a top formation on
Nifty. Now, Nifty may try to fill its first gap up. We have technical support
at 5800 levels. I always give preference to the follow up of trades in case of
every trend reversal. If it closes negative or trade negative then we have
higher chance of extending this fall. Technical resistances will be above 5900
only.
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again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading
flat even after boosted IIP figures. Technical resistances will be at 5910+
levels. In the down side if it starts trading below 5820 then we can see some
fresh and concerning slide. I will use rise to short indices now. Keep an eye
on India VIX too which may give lead signals.
S&P
500
– It got a top exactly at 1690. It is looking very interesting now. I cannot
say that it is same weakness what I am wanting. Chances are that we topped out
in USA too by yesterday only. We just need a follow up of selling or profit
taking. No more levels. Just keep an eye on 1690 as resistance. If it starts
spending time below 1680 then it may be sign of fresh fall. Is it coming?
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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