23 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is going to be weak but do not underestimate the power of volatility which will be last winner. Key support for Nifty is at 5930 and 5800 levels.
You must
read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 23
September 2013: -
On 20
September 2013, FII Bought INR 945.76 crs and DII Sold INR 790.22 crs
After
buying more than 3500 crs on Thursday, FIIs bought 945 crs again. I have
already said that most of the time FIIs used to buy heavily near short term
top. It is looking like we got short term top at 6142 on Thursday only. The bad
news is that even US market is looking like topping out. I have already updated
on Friday night that 1730 may remain a top. It slipped later on. I am giving
more about S&P 500 in the last paragraph. .
One more
thing I need to add. RBI monetary policy has given a shock to the market. I
rather say that Dr. Raghuram Rajan has washed out Ben Barnanke’s effect. Truly,
it was a shock for me too. You cannot predict policy makes. Although, I was
sensing that something is coming to disappoint the market as it was reflecting
on chart. Personally, I have high hope on Dr. Raghuram Rajan so I will prefer
to listen his ideas in next monetary policy too.
I have
already said that we might be on the end point of fifth wave. This end point is
raising a possibility of some remarkable correction this week. Unfortunately,
this structure is coming on derivative expiry week. I can say for two important
threshold points, one is at 5930 and other is at 5800. Break of 5930 will
result a move towards 5800. Further break may result panic fall. On higher side
6100 and 6142 will be tougher resistance to cross. Things will definitely not
going to be as simple as I am writing.
I am not
saying if I am heavily bearish or mildly bearish. I am just on the right point
to be bearish. Rests are reserved for subscribers.
Visit
again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – Nifty future is
likely open down as it should be under the effect of weak US market closing on
Friday night. It is likely to test 5950. If it breaks 5950 then we may expect
panic selling towards 5800. There is one guarantee that we will see extremely
volatile week again. Leave trades if you are light hearted.
S&P
500
– I said for 1710 as threshold point for fall on Friday. I found some
interesting development and informed traders to short when it was mild negative
to flat. Later on it has seen a close at 1710. What a day it was!!! Now my
expect is that S&P 500 will go for the test of 1690 too. If one believes
that every newer high is break out then tell me one thing, when and how market
falls?
This may
not be the breakout or a breakout to misguide bulls. Better to say that it is
not a ‘technical breakout’, it is a ‘Ben break out’.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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