23 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is going to be weak but do not underestimate the power of volatility which will be last winner. Key support for Nifty is at 5930 and 5800 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 September 2013: -

On 20 September 2013, FII Bought INR 945.76 crs and DII Sold INR 790.22 crs

After buying more than 3500 crs on Thursday, FIIs bought 945 crs again. I have already said that most of the time FIIs used to buy heavily near short term top. It is looking like we got short term top at 6142 on Thursday only. The bad news is that even US market is looking like topping out. I have already updated on Friday night that 1730 may remain a top. It slipped later on. I am giving more about S&P 500 in the last paragraph. .  

One more thing I need to add. RBI monetary policy has given a shock to the market. I rather say that Dr. Raghuram Rajan has washed out Ben Barnanke’s effect. Truly, it was a shock for me too. You cannot predict policy makes. Although, I was sensing that something is coming to disappoint the market as it was reflecting on chart. Personally, I have high hope on Dr. Raghuram Rajan so I will prefer to listen his ideas in next monetary policy too.

I have already said that we might be on the end point of fifth wave. This end point is raising a possibility of some remarkable correction this week. Unfortunately, this structure is coming on derivative expiry week. I can say for two important threshold points, one is at 5930 and other is at 5800. Break of 5930 will result a move towards 5800. Further break may result panic fall. On higher side 6100 and 6142 will be tougher resistance to cross. Things will definitely not going to be as simple as I am writing.

I am not saying if I am heavily bearish or mildly bearish. I am just on the right point to be bearish. Rests are reserved for subscribers. 

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open down as it should be under the effect of weak US market closing on Friday night. It is likely to test 5950. If it breaks 5950 then we may expect panic selling towards 5800. There is one guarantee that we will see extremely volatile week again. Leave trades if you are light hearted.  

S&P 500 – I said for 1710 as threshold point for fall on Friday. I found some interesting development and informed traders to short when it was mild negative to flat. Later on it has seen a close at 1710. What a day it was!!! Now my expect is that S&P 500 will go for the test of 1690 too. If one believes that every newer high is break out then tell me one thing, when and how market falls?  

This may not be the breakout or a breakout to misguide bulls. Better to say that it is not a ‘technical breakout’, it is a ‘Ben break out’.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar