25 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support remains at 5850 to arrest the fall. We need a decisive break above 5940 to claim anything good for the days to come. Expiry effect will add volatility!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 September 2013: -

On 24 September 2013, FII Sold INR 21.09 crs and DII Sold INR 493.74 crs

Money flow is not bad so far. Typically FII remains net seller as well as DII. It is not giving any great sense about market. These are giving a sense of confused money flow which remains a characteristic of year 2013. We are moving towards derivative expiry and I am expecting some wild moves.

We got some shameful development on corporate governance issue which was definitely expected. This time it is Financial Technology where auditors inform that last earning numbers are not reliable. We are used to get this kind of one such news in every 6-8 years. This is damaging the image of Indian corporates.

Let us look at technical charts. I have said yesterday to look for band support which is at 5850. Nifty hit at 5855 and rebounded very sharply. Well, it has not closed the way I was anticipating. It gave up most of its gain in noon trades.

I have added yesterday that we may see some unpredictable movement in market due to expiry effect. Perhaps, yesterday’s selling from higher levels was the part of those unpredictable movement. Even for today’s session, technical support will be at 5850 levels only. On higher side, we need to surpass the levels of 5940 to claim good and reliable upside. Let us see what comes for the day.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty future is likely open flat but support should emerge at 5870 levels. This remains same as of yesterday. Big question is that will it able to cross 5970. The 100 points band from 5870 to 5970 is just going to be too wild. It needs to move out from this range to take a decisive move. I like to remind that 5900 ranges on Nifty always go in this way. Before expiry, it will be 50-50 bet.

S&P 500 – It is not looking simple recovery. I still hope for recovery. It should not break 1690 and we should see the beginning of newer move on higher side. It may for a short term bottom. If this bottom comes around 1690 then it may generate a possibility to hit towards 1730 again. Let us see today if rebound comes without breaking 1690.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar